SR-1011_S&T_Map_2005-2055
- 1. Democratized Innovation From innovation hotspots to innovation flatlands Trans- disciplinarity From working in teams to sharing language Emergence From top–down to bottom–up principles serious alternative energies computing power to burn software- defined radio rapid manufact- uring nanoscale storage Small World From passive to sentient objects Intentional Bio From life through evolution to life through design Extended Self From contained to extended bodies, minds, and senses Mathematical World From invisible to visible patterns Sensory Transformation From information to sensory processing Lightweight Infrastructure From centralized grids to flexible, smaller- scale networks human clone to term printable electronics brain food smart supply chain carbon economy computer couture whole-cell biology earth models life extended ten years home robots home genotyping kits universal translator nanobots shape shifting quantum computing zero- emissions cars dominate engineered organs nuclear trumps fossils sentient computing pervasive smart dust clean water for all simulation = reality solar is real desktop manufacturing nuclear fusion brain transplant parallel processing people driveless cars Wild Card! sixth sense Wild Card! who owns the moon? Wild Card! orbital vacations Technology Horizons Program Institute for the Future 124 University Avenue, 2nd Floor, Palo Alto, CA 94301 t 650.854.6322 f 650.854.7850 www.iftf.org Small World Intentional Bio Extended Self Mathematical World Sensory Transformation Lightweight Infrastructure geoweb fuel cells in cars Wild Card! bioterror arms races sensory augmenta- tion microscale robotics terabit optical networks SR-1011 | ©2006 Institute for the Future. All rights reserved. Reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Science & Technology Outlook: 2005–2055 micro- power
- 2. THEMES Small World After 20 years of basic research and development at the 100-nanometer scale, the importance of nanotechnology as a source of innovations and new capabilities in everything from materials science to medicine is already well-understood. Three trends, however, will define how nanotechnology will unfold, and what impacts it will have. First, nanotechnology is not a single field with a coherent intellec- tual program; it’s an opportunistic hybrid, shaped by a combination of fundamental research questions, promising technical applications, and venture and state capital. Second, nanotechnology is moving away from the original vision of small-scale mechanical engineering—in which assemblers build mechanical systems from individual atoms—toward one in which molecular biology and biochemistry contribute es- sential tools (such as proteins that build nanowires). Finally, nanotechnology will also serve as a model for transdisciplinary science. It will support both fundamental research and commercially oriented innovation; and it will be conducted not within the boundaries of conventional academic or corporate research departments, but in institutional and social milieux that emphasize heterogeneity. Intentional Biology For 3.6 billion years, evolution has governed biology on this planet. But today, Mother Nature has a collabo- rator. Inexpensive tools to read and rewrite the genetic code of life will bootstrap our ability to manipulate biology from the bottom up. We’ll not only genetically re-engineer existing life but actually create new life forms with purpose. Still, we will not be blind to what nature has to teach us. Evolution’s elegant engineering at the smallest scales will be a rich source of inspiration as we build the bio-nanotechnology of the next 50 years. Extended Self In the next 50 years, we will be faced with broad opportunities to remake our minds and bodies in profoundly different ways. Advances in biotechnology, brain science, information technology, and robotics will result in an array of methods to dramatically alter, enhance, and extend the mental and physical hand that nature has dealt us. Wielding these tools on ourselves, humans will begin to define a variety of different “transhuman- ist” paths—that is, ways of being and living that extend beyond what we today consider natural for our spe- cies. In the very long term, following these paths could someday lead to an evolutionary leap for humanity. Mathematical World The ability to process, manipulate, and ultimately understand patterns in enormous amounts of data will allow decoding of previously mysterious processes in everything from biological to social systems. Scientists are learning that at the core of many biological phenomena—reproduction, growth, repair, and others—are computational processes that can be decoded and simulated. Using techniques of combinato- rial science to uncover such patterns—whether these are physical, biological, or social—will likely occupy an increasing share of computing cycles in the next 50 years. Such massive computation will also make simulation widespread. Computer simulation will be used not only to help make decisions about large complex scientific and social problems but also to help individuals make better choices in their daily lives. Sensory Transformation In the next ten years, physical objects, places, and even human beings themselves will increasingly become embedded with computational devices that can sense, understand, and act upon their envi- ronment. They will be able to react to contextual clues about the physical, social, and even emotional state of people and things in their surroundings. As a result, increasing demands will be placed on our visual, auditory, and other sensory abilities. Information previously encoded as text and numbers will be displayed in richer sensory formats—as graphics, pictures, patterns, sounds, smells, and tactile experiences. This enriched sensory environment will coincide with major breakthroughs in our understanding of the brain—in how we process sensory information and connect various sensory functions. Humans will become much more sophisticated in their ability to understand, create, and manage sensory information and ability to perform such tasks will become keys to success. Lightweight Infrastructure A confluence of new materials and distributed intelligence is pointing the way toward a new kind of infrastructure that will dramatically reshape the economics of moving people, goods, energy, and information. From the molecular level to the macroeconomic level, these new infrastructure designs will emphasize smaller, smarter, more independent components. These components will be orga- nized into more efficient, more flexible, and more secure ways than the capital-intensive networks of the 20th century. These lightweight infrastructures have the potential to boost emerging economies, improve social connectivity, mitigate the environmental impacts of rapid global urbanization, and offer new future paths in energy. META-THEMES Democratized Innovation Before the 20th century, many of the greatest scientific discoveries and technical inventions were made by amateur scientists and independent inventors. In the last 100 years, a professional class of scientists and engineers, supported by universities, industry, and the state, pushed amateurs aside as a creative force. At the national scale, the capital-intensive character of scientific research made world-class research the property of prosperous advanced nations. In the new century, a number of trends and technologies will lower the barriers to participation in science and technology again, both for individuals and for emerging countries. The result with be a renaissance of the serious amateurs, the growth of new scientific and technical centres of excellence in developing countries, and a more global distribution of world-class scientists and technologists. Transdisciplinarity In the last two centuries, natural philosophy and natural history fractured into the now-familiar disciplines of physics, chemistry, biology, and so on. The sciences evolved into their current form in response to intellectual and professional opportunities, philanthropic priorities, and economic and state needs. Through most of the 20th century, the growth of the sciences, and academic and career pressures, encouraged ever-greater specialization. In the coming decades, transdisciplinary research will become an imperative. According to Howard Rheingold, a prominent forecaster and author, “transdisciplinarity goes beyond bringing together researchers from different disciplines to work in multidisciplinary teams. It means educating researchers who can speak languages of mul- tiple disciplines—biologists who have understanding of mathematics, mathematicians who under- stand biology.” Emergence The phenomenon of self-organizing swarms that generate complex behavior by following simple rules—will likely become an important research area, and an important model for understand- ing how the natural world works and how artificial worlds can be designed. Emergent phenomena have been observed across a variety of natural phenomena, from physics to biology to sociology. The concept has broad appeal due to the diversity of fields and problems to which it can be applied. It is proving useful for making sense of a very wide range of phenomena. Meanwhile, emergence can be modeled using relatively simple computational tools, although those models often require substan- tial processing power. More generally, it is a richly suggestive as a way of thinking about designing complex, robust technological systems. Finally, emergence is an accessible and vivid a metaphor for understanding nature. Just as classical physics profited from popular treatments of Newtonian me- chanics, so too will scientific study and technical reproductions of emergent phenomena likely draw benefits from the popularization of its underlying concepts. Science & Technology Outlook: 2005–2055 A map is a tool for navigating an unknown terrain. In the case of this map, Science & Technology Outlook: 2005–2055, the terrain we’re navigating is the uncharted territory of science and technology (S&T) in the next 50 years. However, the map of the future is not a tool for prediction or, for that matter, the product of predictions. Nor is it comparable to modern navigation techniques in which we rely on a shrink- ing number of strong signals, like GPS coordinates, to show the right path. Rather, it’s more akin to classical low-tech navigational techniques with their reliance on an array of weak signals such as wind direction, the look and feel of the water, and the shape of cloud formations. Taken together, these signals often prove more useful for navigation than high-tech methods because, in addition to aiding travelers in selecting the “right” path, the signals contextualize informa- tion and reveal interdependencies and connections between seemingly unrelated events, thus enriching our under- standing of the landscape. That’s precisely the intention of this map of the future of S&T—to give the reader a deeper contextual understanding of the landscape and to point to the intricacies and interdependencies between trends. While developing the map, the Institute for the Future (IFTF) team listened for and connected a variety of weak signals, including those generated during interviews and workshop conversations involving more than 100 eminent U.K. and U.S. experts in S&T—academicians, policymakers, journalists, and corporate researchers. The IFTF team also compiled a database of outlooks on developments that are likely to impact the full range of S&T disciplines and practice areas over the next 50 years. We also relied on IFTF’s 40 years of experience in forecasting S&T devel- opments to create the map and an accompanying set of S&T Perspectives that discuss issues emerging on the S&T horizon and are important for organizations, policymakers, and society-at-large to understand. On this map, six themes are woven together across the 50- year horizon, often resulting in important breakthroughs. These are supported by key technolgies, innovations, and discoveries. In addition to the six themes, three meta- themes—democratized innovation, transdisciplinarity, and emergence—will overlay the future S&T landscape influencing how we think about, learn about, and practice science. Finally, S&T trends won’t operate in a vacuum. Wider social, demographic, political, economic, and envi- ronmental trends will both influence S&T trends and will be influenced by them. Some of these wider trends surround the map to remind us of the larger picture.