Statistical Theory of Estimation
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The document discusses various concepts related to estimating population maximums from sample data, specifically in the context of a bag of numbered tiles. It highlights methods for calculating estimates based on sample size, maximum values, means, and medians while also addressing challenges such as scope creep and team capacity in project management. Furthermore, it touches on the importance of budgets and granularity in software development projects.
Statistical Theory of Estimation
- 1. The Phone Keypad Number Puzzle
- 2. The Phone Keypad Number Puzzle
- 3. The Phone Keypad Number Puzzle
- 4. 1 / 3 => 2 2 / 3 => 1 3 / 3 => 0
- 5. Why Does a Circle Have 360 Degrees?
- 6. Babylonians
- 7. Babylonians
- 12. Estimating the maximum of a discrete uniform distribution from sampling data TJ Gokcen @tjgokcen
- 20. Estimators a rule telling you how to calculate a special type of statistic that tells you not only about the properties of a sample of data, but also about the properties of the entire population from which the sample was drawn.
- 21. Population Maximum an estimator rule that will help us estimate the value of the largest integer in the bag using only the values in the sample
- 23. 10, 23, 17, 9, 35, 3 A bag of tiles with numbers on them
- 24. 10, 23, 17, 9, 35, 3 Keep in mind we have 42 tiles in the bag A bag of tiles with numbers on them
- 25. 10, 23, 17, 9, 35, 3 Keep in mind we have 42 tiles in the bag A bag of tiles with numbers on them How do we come up with population maximum?
- 26. 10, 23, 17, 9, 35, 3 - Twice the biggest integer 2 x 35 = 70 A bag of tiles with numbers on them
- 27. 10, 23, 17, 9, 35, 3 - Twice the biggest integer 2 x 35 = 70 A bag of tiles with numbers on them - Twice the mean value = 16 x 2 = 32
- 28. 10, 23, 17, 9, 35, 3 - Twice the median value A bag of tiles with numbers on them - Put all the numbers in numerical order: 3, 9, 10, 17, 23, 35
- 29. 10, 23, 17, 9, 35, 3 - Twice the median value A bag of tiles with numbers on them - Put all the numbers in numerical order: 3, 9, 10, 17, 23, 35
- 30. 10, 23, 17, 9, 35, 3 - Twice the median value A bag of tiles with numbers on them - Median is 10+17 /2 = 13.5 x 2 = 27
- 31. sample max sample size pop max = sample max + - 1
- 32. sample max sample size pop max = sample max + - 1 35 6 pop max = 35 + - 1 Our numbers: 10, 23, 17, 9, 35, 3
- 33. sample max sample size pop max = sample max + - 1 pop max = ~40 Our numbers: 10, 23, 17, 9, 35, 3
- 37. • Number of bugs • Number of user stories • Number of user story points • Team Capacity
- 38. • It’s abused
- 39. • It’s abused • Never taken as the estimation always as the final number
- 40. • It’s abused • Never taken as the estimation always as the final number • Used to stress out developers
- 41. • It’s abused • Never taken as the estimation always as the final number • Used to stress out developers • Scope Creep
- 42. • What is the aim of the project? • What do we expect to get out of it? • Where does the project fit with in the organization? • What other areas does it impact?
- 43. • What is my team’s capacity? • Do we need to hire more people or outsource? • Launch a start up for this project? • Where does marketing come in?
- 44. • For iterations etc. estimating is sufficient, because you will be making granular decisions • Otherwise, budgeting especially with lack of granularity, is a better fit
- 45. • Budget using a top-down approach • Let’s say we’re building an online bookstore
- 46. • Shopping Cart • Browse Books • Search Books • Manage Inventory • Preview Inside of Book
- 48. • Should we build this software? • Do we have enough info to answer: Should we make this software?