Staying demand driven 1

COVER STORY
What’s Wrong with
Supply Chain Metrics?
O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3 I S T R AT E G I C F I N A N C E 27
Unless they change,
they will remain
a roadblock to
operational success.
PART 1 OF 3
By Debra Smith, CPA, and Chad Smith

COVER STORY
A
“Deep Truth” lies at the heart of how we
perceive reality and how we behave in
light of that perception. It is simply what
we know. Yet challenging a Deep Truth is
extremely difficult. Nobel Prize-winning
physicist Niels Bohr once said the evidence to replace a
Deep Truth must be so compelling, so obvious, that peo-ple
must let go of their attachment to the status quo. In
other words, once you see a deeper truth, you simply
can’t go back.
Today in industry we have a Deep Truth that permeates
all of our operational decision making and behavior. It’s
the assumption that return on investment (ROI) is maxi-mized
through and directly corresponds to the minimiza-tion
of unit cost. Challenging this deep truth can be
career limiting. After all, who would stand in front of the
CEO and the board of directors and say, “We absolutely
should not direct our people to minimize unit cost”?
Everything from curricula approved by academia to
the approaches and solutions offered by consulting firms
to the major enterprise resource planning (ERP) software
providers is a part of this Deep Truth. Indeed, entire cor-porate
careers have been built around it and devoted to
promulgating it. Exposing today’s Deep Truth would be
threatening to many who are invested heavily in the old
ways, and they will act accordingly.
What if Today’s Deep Truth
Is Totally, Completely,
Unequivocally False?
This series of articles adapted from our upcoming book,
Demand Driven Performance—Using Smart Metrics, will
show that today’s Deep Truth is false and will demon-strate
how corrosive it can be to organizational effective-ness
and ROI. Our argument is based on the following
points:
1. The whole idea that least unit product cost is an
effective measure is an inappropriate use of an equation
that both economics and physics reject.
2. In 1934, legislation created a reporting requirement
that has become the focus of accounting information and
that replaced, almost by accident, the real definition and
rules for relevant information for decision making and
product costing.
3. All of our information systems are hardcoded
and/or configured to compile cost reporting and resource
area measures from the wrong or misapplied rules and
assumptions about how costs and revenue behave.
4. Unit cost has become such a Deep Truth that it has
eclipsed the entire discipline of relevant cost information
derived according to management accounting principles.
5. Even those who know what relevant costs are and
how to calculate them operate inside a system that isn’t
capable of providing relevant information in an appro-priate
time frame in which to act.
6. People no longer even question taking actions they
know will lead to predictable and dire negative conse-quences
that they must deal with later.
Bad Math
Unit cost equations aren’t in and of themselves bad. They
are simply linear, additive equations. The belief that unit
cost calculations are actually meaningful for internal
decision making is simply wrong. The current rules that
generate the cost and reporting information industry uses
to judge performance and make strategic and tactical
decisions simply don’t reconcile well with what’s required
to drive ROI in today’s environment. One fundamental
assumption underlies these rules: that ROI is maximized
through and directly corresponds to the minimization of
unit cost. This assumption is false. To grasp why this
assumption is false requires an understanding of two key
principles.
Principle 1: Flow Comes First
The recognition of manufacturing and supply chain as a
process and system is essential to understanding how it
should work. Understanding how it should work gives
everyone the capability to define what the rules should
be. Which rules need to stay? Which need to go? Which
need to change? Which need to be added?
The essence of manufacturing (and supply chains in
general) is simply the flow of materials from suppliers,
through plants, through distribution channels to cus-tomers,
as well as the flow of information to all parties
about what is planned and required, what is happening,
what has happened, and what should happen next. An
appreciation of this brings us to what is known as:
The first law of manufacturing—“All benefits will
be directly related to the speed of flow of information
and materials.” (See George Plossl, Orlicky’s Material
Requirements Planning, 2nd edition, McGraw-Hill, New
York, N.Y., 1994, p. 4.)
A caveat here is that all information and materials
must be relevant to the market expectation. We frequently
observe organizations drowning in oceans of data with
little relevant information and large stocks of irrelevant
materials (i.e., too much of the wrong stuff).
28 S T R AT E G I C F I N A N C E I O c t o b e r 2 0 1 3

“All benefits” will encompass:
1. Service. A system that flows well produces consis-tent
and reliable results. This has implications for meet-ing
customer expectations not only on delivery
performance but also on quality. This is especially true
for industries that have shelf-life issues. Do you want to
dine at the restaurant that has poor flow or great flow?
2. Revenue.When service is consistently high, market
share grows or, at a minimum, doesn’t erode.
3. Inventories. Raw and pack, work-in-process, and
finished goods inventories will be minimized and directly
proportional to the amount of time it takes to flow
between stages and through the total system. The less
time it takes products to flow through the system, the less
the total inventory investment (Little’s Law will help you
understand this point).
4. Expenses. When flow is poor, additional activities
and expenses are incurred to close the gaps in flow.
Examples would be expedited freight, overtime, rework,
cross-shipping, and unplanned partial ships. Most of
these activities directly cause cash to leave the organiza-tion
and are indicative of an inefficient overall system. In
many companies, these expedite-related expenses are
underappreciated and undermeasured.
5. Cash. When flow is maximized, material that a
company paid for is converted to cash at a relatively quick
and consistent rate. This makes cash flow much easier to
manage and predict. Additionally, the expedite-related
expenses previously mentioned are minimized.
When revenue is maximized and protected, inventory
is minimized, and additional and/or unnecessary ancil-lary
expenses are eliminated, return on investment is
favorable. Every for-profit company has a universal pri-mary
goal: maximize some form of return on shareholder
equity. The best sustainable way to achieve that goal is to
promote and protect flow. This is the very definition of an
efficient manufacturing and distribution system. Con-versely,
one of the fastest ways to compromise ROI and
system efficiency is to make decisions and reinforce
behaviors that impede or block flow. We have to acknowl-edge
that unit cost equations have nothing to do with
measuring and/or predicting system flow.
Once everyone realizes the importance of flow, a few
key principles emerge:
1. Time is the ultimate constraint. It’s also the
most precious resource employed in the manufacturing
process. Because of the continual shrinkage of customer
tolerance times, this principle is truer today than ever
before. The important time is the time that it takes to
move through the system. Without this in the front of
our mind, we can misuse and distort behavior around
time (particularly at the resource level).
2. The system must be well-defined and under-stood.
Clear definitions about how materials and infor-mation
should move will determine whether the existing
system is even capable of maximizing flow.
3. Linkages or connections between points in
the system must be smooth. Relevant materials and
information need to pass smoothly from one point to the
other. The greater the friction at these points, the more
flow is impeded, the longer the system cycle time, and the
greater the working capital investment.
Putting these principles together illuminates an impor-tant
point. A company’s ability to better manage time and
flow from a systemic perspective will determine its success in
relation to ROI. Companies that understand these three
The belief that unit cost calculations are
actually meaningful for internal decision
making is simply wrong.

COVER STORY
key principles adopt a strategy of flow-centric efficiency
to maximize system flow to market pull.
Today, however, most companies operate as if the first
law of manufacturing connects all benefits directly to the
minimization of unit cost (push and promote), not better
flow performance. This drives all reporting, measures,
tactical planning, and execution actions to the following
objectives:
Minimize total product unit cost;
Maximize resource utilization;
Strive for positive overhead, labor, and volume variances;
and
Initiate cost-reduction efforts with emphasis on
machine, labor, and inventory reductions that quantify
the expected savings on fully absorbed standard costs.
Obviously there can’t be two first laws of manufactur-ing,
especially since their policies, rules, measures, and
tactics create actions and priorities that are in direct con-flict
with each other. Unit cost measures and the actions
they drive actually impede system efficiency and flow and
are one of the major sources of variation and a significant
source of the bullwhip effect discussed later.
Principle 2: Linear vs. Nonlinear Complex
Systems
Understanding the need for flow isn’t enough to under-stand
the total implications for cost behavior. The supply
chain systems of today are clearly nonlinear, dependent-event,
complex systems. This simply means that today’s
supply chains don’t look like chains anymore—they look
and act like complex webs composed of a significant
number of nodes of manufacturers, transportation com-panies,
and distributors. Flow of information and materi-als
loop and iterate in a nonlinear way through these
larger numbers of nodes and connections.
It’s crucial to understand how the increased complexity
makes today’s supply chains much more susceptible to
variability as opposed to supply chains and manufactur-ers
in the 1950s and 1960s. Managing and limiting this
variation is a huge challenge to flow and productivity.
The law of variability states, “The more that vari-ability
exists in a process, the less productive that process
will be.” (See APICS Dictionary, 11th edition, APICS The
Association for Operations Management, 2004, p. 71.)
Our concern about this definition is that it doesn’t ade-quately
highlight the impact of variability at the system
level. The impact of variability must be understood and
then managed at the system level rather than the discrete
process level. The war on variability that has been waged
Figure 1: Illustrating the Law of
for decades has been focused most often on a discrete
process level with little focus on impact on the total sys-tem.
Variability at a local level in and of itself doesn’t kill
system flow. What kills system flow is the accumulation
and amplification of variability. Accumulation and ampli-fication
happen because of the nature of the system
complexity—the manner in which the discrete areas
interact (or fail to interact) with each other. Thus we pro-pose
a new law:
The law of system variability—the more that
variability is passed between discrete areas, steps, or
processes in a system, the less productive that system will
be. The more areas, steps, or processes and connections in
the system, the more erosive the effect to system produc-tivity
will be.
Figure 1 illustrates the law of system variability. The
lower half of the graphic depicts a network of connec-tions.
It could represent a project network, a bill of mate-rial,
or even a routing. The point is it depicts a set of
relationships between discrete events, areas, or entities
that culminates in some form of completed product,
proj ect, or end state. The large, squiggly line represents a
variability wave that accumulates and amplifies through
the system. Delays frequently accumulate, whereas gains
rarely accumulate. The graph above the network section
shows the impact of the variability wave on system lead
time and output. In short, lead time expands while out-put
decreases.
Problems associated with variability being passed
between discrete areas, steps, or processes are nothing
new to the manufacturing and supply chain world. In
OUTPUT
LEAD TIME
VARIABILITY WAVE
System Variability

Figure 2: The Bullwhip Effect
DEMAND SIGNAL CHANGES AND DISTORTIONS
supply chain, there’s the bullwhip effect, a rather infamous
effect in industries with large, extended supply chains
dominated by major assemblers. Examples would include
aerospace, automotive, and consumer electronics. Figure 2
illustrates the bullwhip effect. Distortions and changes in
demand signals move from right to left (customer to sup-plier),
and delays and shortages are passed from left to
right (supplier to customer).
In addition to the increased variability of complex non-linear
systems, the rules of how costs behave and how flow
should be protected are different than in linear systems;
many are the opposite. Most business leaders and opera-tional
personnel don’t understand these differences. Con-ventional
costing and reporting information is based on a
linear system rule set and mathematics. The underlying
assumption that it can or should be applied to today’s
complex manufacturing and supply chains is invalid.
The Rise of GAAP
As all accountants know, generally accepted accounting
principles (GAAP) is the basis for standard reporting. A
requirement for the fair presentation of financial state-ments
to external users, GAAP is also a forensic snapshot
of past performance. This means it is accurate for past
cost information, but it won’t be accurate for predicting
how costs will behave today and in the future. In the cur-rent
volatile and complex environment, it’s a mistake to
assume that the specific circumstances that produced a
certain unit cost in the past will be encountered in the
exact same way now and in the future. Thus, if companies
use GAAP cost information to make planning, execution,
and investment decisions today, they are guaranteed to use
wrong or irrelevant information. Outcomes simply won’t
match expectations. These misalignments in expectations
are reflected in the financial statement variances to plan
and the failure of most improvement projects to deliver
their promised savings to the bottom line.
Combined with the use of GAAP, the failure to recog-nize
supply chains as nonlinear, complex systems creates
and reinforces an assumption about the relationship
between cost performance and ROI. Companies are led
to believe that cost improvements everywhere fall to the
bottom line. This belief and the pervasive behavior it
drives have been hardcoded into all of our information
reporting and performance measures. We simply can’t see
another way. Yet financial accounting and management
accounting have very different purposes, reporting tools
sets, and history.
Today, industry reports on the efficiency of each
resource, assuming that local resource efficiency trans-lates
to and drives total system efficiency. A tenth of an
hour saved here saves a tenth of an hour for the whole
system. That savings is quantified as a total cost savings
defined by the sum of the unit-cost savings. The assump-tion
is that the sum of the cost savings will fall to the bot-tom
line. This Deep Truth is embedded in the product
cost roll-up structure of every supply chain. In fact, man-ufacturing
information systems with time standards and
material requirements intended to plan, schedule, and
execute have been transformed into product cost-centric
systems to satisfy GAAP financial statement presentation
for external reporting. Companies have lost their connec-tion
to management accounting and cash generation over
time and replaced it with a mathematically inappropriate
equation of fully absorbed unit cost over time.
The systematized drive to minimize costs leads to the
opposite of its intention: lower service levels, depletion of
cash, inflation of inventory, and the squandering of
resource capacity and materials. Plant controllers and
managers know this; they see it every day. They are con-stantly
placed in conflict between meeting cost perfor-mance
measures and protecting the other key
performance indicators (KPIs). They know that if they do
nothing but minimize and optimize cost performance, it
directly jeopardizes the ROI of the whole system. Ask
them what something costs, and, before answering, they
will ask you why you want to know and what you’re
going to do with it. In other words, they’re trying to
determine whether they need to tell the whole story
rather than simply give an answer that could lead to
trouble. This is one of the biggest indicators that our
cost-driven systems and the real world don’t reconcile.
While GAAP is an imposed requirement to report to
LARGE
ASSEMBLER
COMPONENT SUB-ASSEMBLER
FOUNDRY
SUPPLY VARIABILITY AND DISRUPTIONS

external users, a company doesn’t have to impose it on its
internal users. GAAP wasn’t built or intended to drive
decisions in manufacturing and supply chain assets—
that’s the job of management accountants.
MRP II and the Decline of
Relevant Information
As early as 1962, material requirements planning (MRP)
systems revolutionized the way companies calculated
what to make, what to buy, and when to make and buy it.
As the use of MRP spread and the power of computers
increased, more and more functionality was added. In
1972, closed-loop MRP integrated capacity scheduling
and reconciliation into MRP. In 1980, financials were
integrated into MRP, transforming it into manufacturing
resources planning (MRP II).
MRP II is a method for effectively planning the use of
all resources of a manufacturing company. Ideally, it
addresses operational planning in units and financial
planning in dollars, and it has a simulation capability to
answer what-if questions. It’s made up of a variety of
processes, each linked together: business planning, pro-duction
planning (sales and operations planning), master
production scheduling, material requirements planning,
capacity requirements planning, and the execution sup-port
systems for capacity and material. Output from
these systems is integrated with financial reports such as
the business plan, purchase commitment report, shipping
budget, and inventory projections in dollars. (See APICS
Dictionary, p. 78.)
By the early 1980s, companies using MRP II had
embraced using the automated costing roll-up structures
to speed up closing their month-end financial statements.
One of the promises of the technology was the elimina-tion
of middle-management positions to compile infor-mation
manually. A standard cost roll-up system was fast,
accurate (no computational errors), and could speed up
month-end closing as well as eliminate accounting ana-lyst
positions. The routing, part, and product structure
records were all formatted to accommodate automated
absorption costing.
Manufacturing systems that were originally designed to
capture standard routing time and usage inputs for man-ufacturing
management are now focused primarily on
being a costing system for GAAP. MRP II represents the
combined system of hardcoded rules from the planning
and costing areas described earlier and is a big nail in the
coffin for providing relevant costing information to inter-nal
managers. It became the only source of accounting
information after pressure to reduce the cost of middle
management led many companies to strip out much of
the management accounting capabilities of organizations.
By 1990, MRP II had evolved into today’s widely
adopted ERP, a bigger, faster, more powerful, and more
expensive information system. At the core of ERP prod-ucts
today, however, are MRP II and all of the unchanged
and problematic unit cost rules and assumptions behind
it. Management accountants’ ability to provide relevant
information for tactical decision making has nearly dis-appeared
from the radar screen. This has gone on so long
that most managers, executives, and even some accoun-tants
have come to accept the printout of GAAP costing
information as relevant cost data for decision making.
This problem has been pointed out repeatedly in
accounting literature and many other forums for the last
two decades.
The Push-and-Promote Problem
The rules embedded in the planning and costing areas
combined to create a mode of operation known as push
and promote. This mode is more supply- and unit-cost
efficiency centric than demand-pull and flow efficiency
centric. Those rules were more appropriate considering
the circumstances and limitations under which they were
created in the 1960s. Now they represent a real problem,
GAAP wasn’t built or intended to
drive decisions in manufacturing
and supply chain assets—that’s the
job of management accountants.
COVER STORY

even a threat, to success in the New Normal. Companies
that continue to operate using rules rooted in the out -
dated push-and-promote mode will put more in and get
less back.
Getting Smarter—A Basic Blueprint
for Change
Today’s companies are drowning in an ocean of irrelevant
data, irrelevant signals, and problematic conclusions.
Without challenging the Deep Truth of unit cost and lin-ear
rule assumptions, there’s simply no land in sight. In
order to move away from that Deep Truth, a Deeper
Truth must be revealed. How will this happen?
In the face of increasing system variability, maximizing
flow in the New Normal will require change. Defining
what to change and what to change into will require
organizations to get smarter. Does that mean that today’s
organizations aren’t smart? No. They have many talented
and smart individuals, but collectively they’re failing to
recognize and address the real and fundamental needs for
change. The blueprint for change is something we call
“the smarter way,” which has three simple steps.
Step 1: Install the Right Thoughtware in the
Organization
Encourage and enable organizations to think systemically.
In decades of combined experience with nearly 1,000
organizations, we’ve found that most people inside com-panies
are prohibited from, discouraged from, and/or
incapable of thinking about problems and solutions from
a systemic point of view. To drive meaningful and rapid
improvement, problems must be defined, and solutions
must be developed from a systems-and-flow-based per-spective
with the New Normal in mind. Individuals
and their organizations can be made capable, but organi-zations
have huge obstacles standing in the way of re -
moving the self-imposed variability of following
inappropriate and outmoded rules.
Step 2: Become Demand Driven
The push-and-promote mode of operation must change,
and the old rules based on cost-centric efficiency must
go. Companies must embrace the new position-and-pull
mode of operation and adopt new flow-centric efficiency
rules that protect and maximize the flow of relevant
materials and information. They will have to find a way
to better align their resources and efforts with actual
market and customer requirements in the more variable,
volatile, and complex environment we have today.
Step 3: Deploy Smart Metrics
At this point you may be saying, “Wait a minute! If our
organizations are full of the wrong rules, what are the
right rules?” An appreciation for what the rules need to
be requires Steps 1 and 2. The changes to sustain compet-itiveness
in the New Normal require new rules, and mea-sures
always follow the rules. To embrace and deploy
those metrics will necessitate the removal of some very
ingrained, hardcoded assumptions, metrics, and rote
behavior. Smart metrics are a function of understanding
the fundamental principles of system flow, the causes of
system variation, and the ability to think systemically.
Unless people can think systemically and design operat-ing
models to fit the New Normal, these metrics will
elude us. SF
Note: Part 2 of this series will detail the solution to the
problem: the position-and-pull model and a flow-centric
efficiency strategy. Part 3 will offer a case study demonstrat-ing
the use of smart metrics and the results. Sections of this
article are excerpted from Demand Driven Performance by
Debra and Chad Smith (McGraw-Hill Professional, Hard-cover,
November 2013) with permission from McGraw-Hill
Professional.
Debra A. Smith, CPA, TOCICO certified, is a partner with
Constraints Management Group, LLC, a services and
technology pull-based solutions provider. Her career spans
public accounting (Deloitte), management accounting
(public company financial executive), and academia (man-agement
accounting professor). She served five years on the
board of directors of the Theory of Constraints International
Certification Organization; has been a keynote speaker on
three continents; is coauthor of The Theory of Constraints
and Its Implications for Management Accounting and
author of The Measurement Nightmare; and received the
1993 IMA/PW applied research grant. You can reach her at
dsmith@thoughtwarepeople.com.
Chad Smith is the coauthor of the third edition of Orlicky’s
Material Requirements Planning and the coauthor of
Demand Driven Performance—Using Smart Metrics.
He is the cofounder and managing partner of Constraints
Management Group (CMG) and a founding partner of
the Demand Driven Institute. Chad also serves as the
program director of the International Supply Chain
Education Alliance’s Certified Demand Driven Planner
(CDDP) program. You can reach him at
csmith@thoughtwarepeople.com.

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