![Climate system
Main components: the atmosphere, hydrosphere [liquid water
components], cryosphere [frozen water components], lithosphere [land
surface] and biosphere [living things]) and the interactions between them](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/luckastudents-180531080906/85/Students-Introduction-to-climate-change-science-5-320.jpg)
Students - Introduction to climate change science
- 1. Introduction to climate change science Prof. Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
- 2. Climate Change is a Large Issue Majority of the sciences are involved. Business/Industry has a stake. Involves citizens, politicians, public policy experts. Every sector of the economy affected. All aspects of our lives touched: environment, jobs, health, politics, etc.
- 3. What is happening in the climate system? What are the risks? What can be done?
- 4. IPCC Assessment Reports since 1990: WGI Contribution 1990 1995 2001 2007 2013
- 5. Climate system Main components: the atmosphere, hydrosphere [liquid water components], cryosphere [frozen water components], lithosphere [land surface] and biosphere [living things]) and the interactions between them
- 6. THE COMPOSITION OF AIR IS CHANGING RAPIDLY due to human activities: → more GHG (CO2, CH4, NOx...) → more aerosol (air pollution) Human activities induced LAND USE CHANGES → deforestation changed CO2 balance, more GHG (CO2) → changes in albedo, water balance etc.
- 8. Primary energy consumption and total global emissions are increasing
- 9. The atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
- 10. –18°C +15°C Earth without air Our planet + 33°C If the EARTH had no atmosphere, it would be very cold
- 11. Natural GHG effect 33 °C Other GHG <1 °C CO2 2 °C H2O 31 °C –18oC +15oC
- 12. Enhanced GHG effect 33 °C + 1 °C Other GHG <1 °C CO2 2 °C + 1oC H2O 31 °C –18oC +16oC
- 14. Warming rate K/100 y • The Earth gets warmer as CO2 increases in the atmosphere • The Earth doesn't warm uniformly, the oceans warm slower than the continents and arctic
- 15. Changes in water cycle drier wetter
- 17. Number of world natural catastrophes 1980-2017
- 19. GHG radiative forcing values are getting bigger every year
- 20. RCPs Scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values +2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2
- 21. Climate models have improved in the last decade. Models reproduce observed surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades and are used for climate projections.
- 22. Climate models • Climate models are systems of differential equations based on the basic laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry. • GCMs divide earth into many layers of grids. GCMs provide forecasts for each grid point, which represent average values for a grid. • Using more than one GCM is recommended to avoid the effects of model bias.
- 24. Regional aspects of surface warming Knutti et al, Nat. Geo., 2015 1.5°C 2°C 4°C °C
- 25. Regional aspects of precipitation change Water cycle change : • for 50% of world’s population at +2°C • for 40% of land surface at +3°C Sedlacek and Knutti, 2014; Knutti et al, Nat. Geo., 2015 1.5°C 2°C 4°C % precipitation change
- 27. Downscaling is a technique to obtain information for a finer scale from information for a larger scale.
- 28. Projections Europe (RCP4.5) 2081-2100 versus 1986-2005 Temperature (oC) Precipitation (%) winter summer winter half summer half
- 29. IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Impacts are already underway • Tropics to the poles • On all continents and in the ocean • Affecting rich and poor countries (but the poor are more vulnerable everywhere) AR5 WGII SPM
- 30. Facing the dangers from climate change… …there are only three options: Mitigation, meaning measures to reduce the pace & magnitude of the changes in global climate being caused by human activities. Adaptation, meaning measures to reduce the adverse impacts on human well-being resulting from the changes in climate that do occur. Suffering the adverse impacts that are not avoided by either mitigation or adaptation.
- 31. Concluding thoughts • Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing GHG concentrations, observed warming, and understanding of the climate system. • Continued emissions of GHG will cause further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. • We can still limit climate change by substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.