Study of sustainable development using Fuzzy Cognitive Relational Maps (FCM)

Integrated Intelligent Research (IIR) International Journal of Data Mining Techniques and Applications
Volume: 02 Issue: 01 June 2013 Page No.38-42
ISSN: 2278-2419
38
Study of sustainable development using Fuzzy
Cognitive Relational Maps (FCM)
A. Victor Devadoss1
, M. Syed Ismail2
1
PG and Research Department of Mathematics, Loyola College, Chennai, India
2
Department of Mathematics, The New College, Chennai, India
Email :1
hanivictor@yamil.com , 2
msismail72@gmail.com
Abstract-Sustainable development provides a framework under
which communities can use resources efficiently, create efficient
infrastructures, protect and enhance quality of life, and create new
businesses to strengthen their economies. It can help us create
healthy communities that can sustain our generation, as well as
those that follow ours. Sustainable development is not a new
concept. Rather, it is the latest expression of a long-standing ethic
involving peoples' relationships with the environment and the
current generation's responsibilities to future generations. For a
community to be truly sustainable, it must adopt a three-pronged
approach that considers economic, environmental and cultural
resources. Communities must consider these needs in the short
term as well as the long term. Sustainable Development also can
be defined simply as a better quality of life for everyone, now and
for generations to come. It is a vision of progress that links
economic development, protection of the environment and social
justice, and its values are recognised by democratic governments
and political movements the world over. Sustainable
Development is therefore closely linked to Governance, Better
Regulation and Impact Assessment. Indicators to measure
progress are also vital.This paper has four sections. In the first
section we introduce the notion of fuzzy cognitive maps and
Combined Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (CFCMs). In section two we
describe the problem and justification for the use of FCMs. In
section three we give the adaptation of FCM to the problem. In
the final section we give conclusions based on our analysis of the
problem using FCM.
Keywords-Cognitive Maps (FCMs), Combined Fuzzy
Cognitive Maps (CFCM) , sustainable development, economic,
environmental and cultural resources.
I. BASIC NOTIONS OF FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPS
(FCM)
FCMs are the best suited tool in the study and analysis of the
unsupervised data. For they are the only structures which can
give the hidden pattern of the dynamical system. Let C1, ..., Cn be
n attributes or nodes. Suppose there is some causal flow of
relation between the concepts Ci and Cj where 1  i, j  n, this
relation of how much the occurence of Ci influence variations or
chagnes in Cj can be described by signed directed graphs with
feed back. Fuzzy Cognitive Maps are fuzzy signed directed
graphs with feed back. The directed edge eij from causal concept
Ci to concept Cj measures how much Ci causes Cj. The edges eij
take values in the real interval [-1,1]. eij = 0 indicates no causality.
eij > 0 indicates causal increase: Cj increases as Ci increases, or Cj
decreases as Ci decreases. eij < 0 indicates causal decrease or
negative causality that is Cj increases as Ci decreases or Cj
decrease as Ci increases.Simple FCMs have edge values in {-1, 0,
1}. If causality occurs, it occurs to maximal positive or negative
degree. Simple FCMs provide a quick first-hand information to
an expert's stated causal knowledge. We use in this paper only
simple FCMs to study the problem. Using the directed graphs we
can obtain the causal connection matrix M which is a n  n
matrix with entries from the set {0, 1, -1}. A = (a1, a2, ..., an) is
called a state vector where either ai = 0 or 1. ai = 0 implies the
concept Ci is in the OFF state. ai = 1 implies the concept Ci is in
the ON state.We pass state vectors C1 repeatedly through the
FCM connection matrix M. An equilibrium in this system is
attained when we have a set of repeated patterns. Repeating
patterns can be fixed points or limit cycles. A fixed point is a
single recurring pattern such as, say, C3  C3 in the pattern C1 
C2  C3  C3. A 'limit cycle' is a set of multiple repeating
patterns such as C3  C4  C5, C1  C2  C3  C4  C5 
C3  C4  C5, ... Thus the fixed point or limit cycle is known as
the hidden pattern of the system. The state vector is updated and
thresholded at each stage. Inference from the hidden pattern
summarizes the joint effects of all interacting fuzzy knowledge.
Since the data is an unsupervised one and the study is done using
only experts opinion, we to obtain an unbiased analysis of our
problem and conclusions use the combined FCM. In combined
FCM equal weightages are given to each expert. FCM
combination provides a unbiased solution to this problem. We
can additively superimpose each experts opinion given as an
FCM in an associate - memory fashion, even though the FCM
connection matrices M1, ..., Mk may not be conformable for
addition. Combined conflicting opinions tend to cancel out and
assisted by the strong law of large numbers, a consensus emerges
as the sample opinion approximates the underlying population
opinion. By adding these augmented FCM matrices F1, ..., Fk. We
permute the rows and columns of the augmented matrices to
bring them into mutual coincidence. Then we add the Fi point
wise to yield the combined FCM matrix F.
F = 
i
iF
(i.e.,) F = F1 + F2 + F3 + .... + Fk
II. DESCRIPTION OF THE PROBLEM AND
JUSTIFICATION FOR USING FCM MODEL
Sustainable development has first and foremost been a way of
thinking. It has been a normative concept - referring to
development goals as a sound environment combined with the
necessity of basic needs and social well-being. The challenge
lies in the way the concept can be moved from words at
conferences and at the policy level – to the action level.
Bringing about concrete social, economic and environmental
change. Therefore, the notion of implementing words through
concrete actions necessarily points to the need for concrete

ISSN: 2278-2419
39
implementation tools and measures. There is also a need for
identifying people and organizations to adopt targets, measure
progress and actually bring about change.
The Plan of Implementation of the World Summit on
Sustainable Development states that “Strengthen and promote
programmes of the International Labour Organization (ILO)
and World Health Organization (WHO) to reduce occupational
deaths, injuries and illnesses and link occupational health with
public health promotion as a means of promoting public health
and education”. The OECD’s (Organisation of Economic
Cooperation and Development) Environmental Strategy
adopted by OECD Environment Ministers in 2001 also focuses
on the Social Interface: It calls for national action related to
health and safety - with a special emphasis on chemicals and
hazardous substances. WSSD has reinforced these points and
has encouraged a link between occupational and public health,
and a link between occupational health and safety with
environment
Sustainable Development, as defined by the World
Commission on Environment and Development (the
Brundtland Commission), is the capacity to meet the needs of
the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs. Sustainable Development
must balance the needs of society, the economy, and the
environment Sustainable Development is therefore closely
linked to Governance, Better Regulation and Impact
Assessment. Indicators to measure progress are also
vital.Sustainable Development Indicators (SDI) are various
statistical values that collectively measure the capacity to meet
present and future needs. SDI will provide information crucial
to decisions of national policy and to the general public. The
SDI Group has four principle tasks to support the selection of
national indicators of sustainable development: Develop a
framework to identify, organize, and integrate national
sustainable development indicators. This framework will cover
all aspects of the Earth system: society, economy, and
environment. The framework will support efforts to develop
regional and local indicators. Develop an information system
providing easy, low cost, electronic access to Federal data and
information about sustainable development indicators. Release
regular reports on progress toward national sustainable
development indicators. Recommend an organizational
strategy in which all levels of government, non-government
organizations, and industry can collaborate on the long term
evolution of sustainable development indicators.
The following are taken as Sustainable Development Indicators
(SDI)
C1Acts of Terrorism and Crime - Number of terrorist acts and
Overall crime rate within India Those activities, actions, and
operations that involve the interaction between people. This
framework element serves as a broad placeholder for all social
processes. All subcategories currently emphasize the driving
forces that directly act upon an endowment.
C2 Agriculture Land Conversion - Prime agricultural land area
converted to urban use per year
All ecosystems modified or created by man specifically to
grow or raise biological products for human consumption or
use. This includes cropland, pasture, orchards, groves,
vineyards, nurseries, ornamental horticultural areas, and
confined feeding areas.
C3 Capital Assets -Total value, in rupees, of India tangible
reproducible capital, excluding all public infrastructure, as
defined in the National Asset Accounts
Investment in public and private infrastructure to maintain
sufficient capacity, research and development, technology
innovation.
C4 Consumption Expenditures Per Capita - Total rupee value of
goods and services purchased by consumers per year as
defined in the National Income Accounts.
Energy used per unit of output, Money spent for exporting
technology that is cost-effective and environmentally sound,
Export concentration ratio (%), Exports of goods and services ,
Imports of goods and services , Distribution of income per
capita arranged to show the percentage of the population at
various levels of income
C5 Discrimination Cases - Number of caste discrimination
cases brought before courts
Unfair or partial treatment of one socioeconomic group by
another
C6 Ecosystem Diversity -: Area of threatened ecosystems
organized by type
Undesirable changes in the variety of biota, and ecosystems.
Area and percent of forest land with diminished biological
components indicative of changes in fundamental ecological
processes (e.g. soil, nutrient cycling, seed dispersion,
pollination, deforestation)
C7 Energy Consumption by Use - Total Energy consumed
organized by use (construction, transportation, production,
heating, etc.)
Changes in the stocks and use of energy resources, such as
coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric reserves.
C8 Environmental Technology Sales - Total amount of money
spent of environmental technology
Amount of Money Spent for Development of environmentally
safe or benign technology and money for exporting technology
that is cost-effective and environmentally sound
C9 Faith in Justice - Number of people who believe the court
system is fair
The ability of the legal system to quickly and fairly prosecute
criminals and dispense justice
C10 Groundwater Contamination and Groundwater Drawdown-
Area of land with contaminated ground water and Change in
depth of water table over time
Buildup of pollutants, toxins, and heavy metals in water and
sediments, changes in the stock, capacity, or use of water
resources and Annual withdrawals of ground and surface water
as % of available water
C11 Health Care Spending - amount of resources dedicated for
health care, maternal care, child development, and education
Systematic provision of a society for the optimal well-being of
its members, percentage of national health expenditure devoted

ISSN: 2278-2419
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to local health services, percentage of population with adequate
access to health care as a function of income level, fair and
impartial access to physical and physiological health care
regardless of economic or social status, percentage of
population covered by primary health care as a function of
income level.
C12 Population and Public Infrastructure - The total human
population, including men, women and children.
Adequate physical and social infrastructure for the efficient
functioning of society, Money spends for public infrastructure
needing major repairs. The idea of sustainable development
stems from the environmental and conservation movement of
the 1970's and was largely centered on the environment.
Currently, sustainability includes other questions of how
resources are used, where they are taken from, who gets to use
the resources, who gets to profit from the resources, and,
finally, who decides all of the above.These are issues that now
have legal, social, and ethical considerations. There are no easy
solutions to these problems, but in the end, someone is going to
be making decisions which affect everyone on Earth. As the
Sustainable Development at large involves so much of indicators,
uncertainties and unpredictability’s, we felt it deem fit to use
fuzzy theory in general and fuzzy cognitive maps in particular.
For, FCMs are the best-suited tools when the data is an
unsupervised one. Further the FCMs are so powerful that they
can give the hidden pattern of the problem.
III. USE OF FCM TO ANALYZE SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT USING THE INDICATORS
Here we analyze the impact of sustainable development on the
environment with respect to the following indicators.
The following 12 Sustainable Development Indicators were
taken as the attributes for analysis as nodes of the FCM.
C1 Acts of Terrorism and Crime - Number of terrorist acts and
Overall crime rate within India
C2 Agriculture Land Conversion - Prime agricultural land area
converted to urban use per year
C3 Capital Assets -Total value, in rupees, of India tangible
reproducible capital, excluding all public infrastructure, as
defined in the National Asset Accounts
C4 Consumption Expenditures Per Capita - Total rupee value of
goods and services
purchased by consumers per year as defined in the National
Income Accounts.
C5 Discrimination Cases - Number of caste discrimination
cases brought before courts
C6 Ecosystem Diversity -: Area of threatened ecosystems
organized by type
C7 Energy Consumption by Use - Total Energy consumed
organized by use (construction, transportation,
production, heating, etc.)
C8 Environmental Technology Sales - Total amount of money
spent of environmental technology
C9 Faith in Justice - Number of people who believe the court
system is fair
C10Groundwater Contamination and Groundwater Draw down-
Area of land with
contaminated ground water and Change in depth of water table
over time
C11 Health Care Spending - amount of resources dedicated for
health care, maternal
care, child development, and education
C12 Population and Public Infrastructure - The total human
population, including men, women and children.
We proceed on to give the opinion of three different experts:
One is the senior-most welfare economist . Our second expert
is one of the public in the village where we have studied the
problem. The third expert is development policy officer.
The related connection matrix M1 given by the first expert is a
12  12 matrix.
Let us start with the node C3 in the ON state i.e. C3 - Capital
Assets -Total value, in rupees, of India tangible reproducible
capital, excluding all public infrastructure, as defined in the
National Asset Accounts the impact on Sustainable
Development.
Let the input state vector X1 = (0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0). The
effect of X1 on the dynamical system M1 is given by
X1M1 =( -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1)
↪ ( 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1) =X2
X2M1 = ( -3 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 -2 0 2 )
↪( 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 )= X3
X3M1 = ( -5 5 0 5 -1 3 2 4 1 -1 0 6 )
↪( 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 )=X4.
X4M1 = ( -6 5 -2 6 2 2 1 3 0 -6 -1 7 )
↪ ( 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 )=X5
X5M1 = ( -6 5 0 6 -2 3 2 4 1 -4 0 7 )
↪ ( 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 ) =X6=X4
(Where ↪ denotes the thresholding and updating of the
resultant state vector) The hidden pattern is the fixed point
given by ( 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1) which implies that except the
attributes C1, C5, C10, C11, all the other attributes come to
ON state i.e., except Acts of Terrorism and Crime,
Discrimination cases, Groundwater contamination and
groundwater drawdown, health care spending.
The related connection matrix M2 given by the second expert is
a 12  12 matrix.

ISSN: 2278-2419
41
Once again we start with the same state vector i.e. the node C3
is in the ON state that is X1 = (0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0). When C3
is in the ON state all other nodes are in the OFF state. The
effect of X1 on the dynamical system M2 is
X1M2 = ( 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1)
↪( 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1) = X2
X2M2 = ( 6 9 -1 8 9 4 4 5 5 -7 1 10 )
↪( 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1) =X3
X3M2 =( 4 8 0 8 9 3 3 4 4 -7 0 10)
↪( 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 )=X4.
X4M2 =( 5 8 -1 7 8 3 3 4 4 -7 0 9 )
↪( 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 ) =X5 = X4
(where ↪ denotes the thresholding and updating of the vector)
The hidden pattern is the fixed point given by (1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 1) which implies that except the attributes C10 and C11, all
the other attributes come to ON state except Groundwater
contamination and groundwater drawdown, Healthcare
spending being highlighted in a strong manner. The third
related connection matrix M3 given by the third expert, an
Policy Development officer and who concentrates on his
activities to bring in awareness about the current situation and
brings awareness to the farmers, concerned authorities and the
people at large.
Once again we start with the same initial vector with the node
C3 in the ON state, that is X1 = (0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) be the
state vector. The effect of
X1 on the dynamical system M3 is given by
X1M3 = ( -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 )
↪( 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 )=X2
X2M3 = ( -3 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 -2 0 2 )
↪( 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1) = X3
X3M3 = ( -5 5 0 5 -1 3 2 4 2 -3 0 6 )
↪ ( 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1)=X4
X4M3 = ( -6 5 -2 6 -3 2 1 3 0 -6 -1 7 )
↪ ( 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1) =X5
X5M3 = ( -7 4 -1 5 -2 2 1 3 0 -5 -1 6 )
↪(0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 ) = X6 = X5
(where ↪ denotes the thresholding and updating of the
resultant state vector) The hidden pattern is the fixed point
given by (0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 ) which implies that except C1
, C5, C9, C10 and C11, all other are coming to the ON state. That
is except Act of terrorism and Crime, Discrimination cases,
Faith in justice, Groundwater contamination and groundwater
drawdown, Healthcare spending.
A.Use of Combined FCM to Analyze Sustainable Development
Let M = M1 + M2 + M3 denote the combined connection matrix
of the three experts.
We take the initial vector in which once again C3 is kept in the
ON state i.e. Capital Assets -Total value, in rupees, of India
tangible reproducible capital, excluding all public
infrastructure, as defined in the National Asset
Accounts alone is in the ON state and all other nodes are in the
OFF state. Let X = (0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0) be the initial state
vector. The effect of X on the dynamical system M is given by
XM = ( -1 3 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 –1 0 1 )
↪( 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 ) = X1
X1 M = ( -5 19 -1 20 1 10 6 11 5 -16 -1 -22)
↪ ( 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 ) =X2 = X1
The hidden pattern is fixed point given by (0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0
1) which implies that, except the attributes C1, C10, C11, all
the other attributes come to ON state Thus we get the attributes
Act of terrorism and Crime, Groundwater contamination and
groundwater drawdown, Healthcare spending being
highlighted in a strong manner even by the combined FCM.
IV. CONCLUSION
In this paper we have analyzed using FCMs, CFCMs to find
the effect of Sustainable Indicators on the Sustainable
Development. We see that Capital Assets -Total value, in
rupees, of India tangible reproducible capital is in on the state
all indicators become on which is proved to be the hidden
pattern of the dynamical system which invariably is a fixed
point in which all states become on. Hence A Sustainable
Development perspective tends to highlight the fact that many
current policies often do not pay enough attention to long term
issues, or the inter-linkages between different policy areas
(such as between energy and environment). Achieving
Sustainable Development therefore means improving the
quality of policy making. Sustainable Development is therefore
closely linked to Governance, Better Regulation and Impact
Assessment. Indicators to measure progress are also vital.
REFERENCES
[1] IPCC. Climate change: the second IPCC scientific assessment. in press.

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42
[2] WHO. Potential health effects of climate change. Geneva: World Health
Organization, 1990.
[3] WHO. Climate Change and health. Geneva: World Health Organization,
in press.
[4] Kalkstein LS, Smoyer KE. The impact of climate change on human
health: some international implications. Experiencia 1993;49:469-79.
[5] Dobson A, Carper R. Biodiversity. Lancet 1993;342(October): 1096-99.
[6] [6]Kosko, B., Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems, Prentice Hall of India
Private Limited, 1997.
[7] Kosko, B, "Fuzzy Cognitive Maps", International Journal of Man-
Machine Studies, 65-75, January 1986.

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