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Dr. Kang Mun Arturo Tan, Jr.
Department of Management Sciences
Yanbu University College
April 6, 2014
12:20 – 1:10 PM
J2- Main Auditorium
Discussing
“Predictive Analytics
by
Eric Siegel”
Spider2
Video
What is Predictive Analytics?
Input Parameters
Observations
Prediction
About A
Specific Item (You)
A good prediction brings about economic value. It avoids
making substantial errors.
How is the
“Crystal Ball”
created?
Algorithms
Data
About
Others
How is the “Crystal Ball” created?
Algorithms
Data
About
Others
Introduction- - -
Input Parameters
Observations
Prediction
Money
Men
Materials
Time
Action
Chapter 1
success
failure
Press Conference
Input Parameters
Observations
Prediction
Money
Men
Materials
Time
Action
Chapter 2
Positive
Effect on
You
Negative
Effect on
You
With great power
comes great responsibility.
How Target knows when its shoppers are pregnant - and figured out
a teen was before her father did
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2102859/How-Target-
knows-shoppers-pregnant--figured-teen-father-did.html#ixzz2y5hGwILB
'If we send someone a catalogue and say,
‘Congratulations on your first child!’ and they’ve
never told us they’re pregnant, that’s going to make
some people uncomfortable,' Andrew Pole, a
statistician with Target told the New York Times'
Charles Duhigg.
Algorithms Data
About
Others
Chapter 3
Mind Uploading
Blue Brain Project
Web Browsing
Medical Issues
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading
Whole brain emulation (WBE) or mind uploading (sometimes called "mind
copying" or "mind transfer") is the hypothetical process of copying mental
content (including long-term memory and "self") from a particular brain
substrate and copying it to another computational device, such as a digital,
analog, quantum-based or software based artificial neural network.
MIND UPLOADING
Mind uploading may potentially be accomplished by either of two methods:
Copy-and-Transfer or Gradual Replacement of neurons. In the case of the
former method, mind uploading would be achieved by a scanning and
mapping the salient features of a biological brain, and then by copying,
transferring, and storing that information state into a computer system or
another computational device.[4][5][6][7][8
Process from MRI acquisition to whole brain structural network[30]
Magnetoencephalography
Algorithms
Data
About
Others
Chapter 4
Training
Data
Set
Test
Data
Set
70%
30%
Traditionally called
Machine Learning.
Input Parameters
Observations
Prediction
About A
Specific Item
Chapter 5
ENSEMBLE – MULTIPLE MODELS CANCEL EACH OTHER’S ERRORS.
Marks For
Each Choice
Chapter 6
TEXTUAL QUESTIONS
Jeopardy Video
Jeopardy Explanation
I ATE SPAGHETTI WITH MEATBALLS.
I ATE SPAGHETTI WITH A FORK.
I ATE SPAGHETTI WITH MY FRIEND BILL.
DID YOU TASTE THE MEATBALLS?
DID YOU TASTE A FORK?
DID YOU TASTE YOUR FRIEND BILL.
JEOPARDY, NOT A DIRECT SUBSTITUTION.
Prediction
Chapter 7
Input
Input
Persuadable
Sure Things
Lost Causes
Do not disturb
Money
Men
Materials
Time
Action
Uplift Model
Return on investment
Because uplift modelling focuses on incremental responses only,
it provides very strong return on investment cases when applied to
traditional demand generation and retention activities. For example, by
only targeting the persuadable customers in an outbound marketing
campaign, the contact costs and hence the return per unit spend can be
dramatically improved.
Video1
Video2

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Summarizing Siegel's Predictive Analytics