Tackling hard problems: On the evolution of operations research
0 likes140 views
The document discusses the evolution and significance of Operations Research (OR), highlighting its roots in mathematics and its critical role during World War II in military applications. Key figures such as George Dantzig and historical milestones demonstrate OR's capability to solve complex problems across various fields, leading to its resurgence in the modern era despite claims of its decline. With advancements in data-driven methodologies, OR continues to thrive and adapt to new challenges, proving its value in decision-making processes.
Tackling hard problems: On the evolution of operations research
- 1. Tackling hard problems: On the evolution of operations research Professor Laura A. Albert Industrial and Systems Engineering University of Wisconsin-Madison 2023 INFORMS President This work was in part supported by the National Science Foundation under Award Number 1935550
- 2. What’s so great about operations research? This is a topic I explored during my Presidential term at INFORMS in 2023 in ORMS Today articles, Punk Rock Operations Research blog posts, and LinkedIn Posts: • Operations Research – what is it? • 10 facts about the origin of operations research • On George Dantzig, Good Will Hunting, and Tackling Hard Problems • Operations research was declared dead in 1979 • So your mother wanted you to be a doctor, but a PhD in OR? EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 2
- 3. What’s so great about operations research? Our community tackles hard problems Let’s take a tour through OR history EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 3
- 4. OR before World War II Historical origins go back to mathematicians such as Newton, Euler, Gauss, Lagrange, Bernoulli, and others By World War I, operations research was in its early phases in both the British and the U.S. militaries • F.W. Lanchester in the UK and Thomas Edison in US • Neither impacted war effort / OR not adopted EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 4
- 5. During World War II when OR teams tackled hard problems to help the war effort • British army started using OR near onset of World War II in 1939 • P.M.S. Blackett led a team of scientists called “Blackett’s circus” to tackle projects • 365 scientists engaged in OR by Victory in Europe Day • US military adopted OR in 1940 within months of becoming aware of Blackett’s circus • James B. Conant, chemistry advisory and member of National Defense Research Committee • Philip McCord Morse started first OR team for the U.S. Navy • Originally consisted of 7 scientists • 73 scientists by the end of WWII • OR quickly spread to all branches of the US military • By 1942 all Air Force generals required to have OR teams • By Victory in Japan (V-J) Day in 1945, there were 26 OR groups at Air Force headquarters • Despite the focus on decision-making, psychologists were generally not part of the teams EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 5
- 6. OR quickly spread in military during WWII because it made a difference • Searching out Axis ships and submarines and attacking them • Most valued contribution • Integrating radar into operations • Location, communication, and maintenance • Optimal convoy size • Criteria: loss and escort requirements • Analysis of anti-aircraft weaponry • Strategic bombing • Performance under various conditions • Anti-submarine strategies OR teams succeeded in solving hard problems EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 6 Anti-submarine warfare
- 7. Definition of OR British Army 1939-1945 A scientific method of providing executive departments with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control "Operational Research in the British Army 1939–1945", October 1947, Report C67/3/4/48, UK National Archives file WO291/1301 Quoted on the dust-jacket of: Morse, Philip M, and Kimball, George E, Methods of Operation Research, 1st edition revised, MIT Press & J Wiley, 5th printing, 1954. EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 7
- 8. Operations research – what is it?* Philip McCord Morse, 1951 Morse declines to directly define OR, which is: • Quantitative, predictive, and prescriptive • Flexible and interdisciplinary, drawing on physics, math, biology, psychology, and economics • Practical – solves real problems • Model-centric and experimental, with a feedback loop to continuously improve models • Data-driven and hands-on, with access to real system • The ability to communicate up is crucial • My impression: early OR is consistent with the OR of today • Validation of mathematical models was emphasized more in 1950s EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 8 Title of Philip McCord Morse paper in the Journal of Applied Physics in 1952 that is a transcript of a lecture at the conference on Applications of Operations Research in Industry at Case Institute of Technology, 1951
- 9. OR becomes a field of study after World War II • Scientific management (early 1900s) • Data analytics for management • “Time studies” by Frederick Winslow Taylor (“Taylorism”) • Assembly lines • Moving assembly line introduced in 1913 • Data and systems thinking applied to manufacturing • Increased productivity by 500% in the US!! • OR finds many new applications • Resource allocation, cutting stock, game theory, queueing theory, scientific management • Advances in OR lead to widespread adoption • Simplex algorithm, computing power EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simplex_algorith m#/media/File:Simplex-description-en.svg
- 10. on George Dantzig, Good Will Hunting, and tackling hard problems On solving homework problems that were “a little harder than usual”: “If I had known that the problems were not homework but were in fact two famous unsolved problems in statistics, I probably would not have thought positively, would have become discouraged, and would never have solved them” - George Dantzig EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 10
- 11. Dantzig’s simplex algorithm solved hard problems, such as the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) TSP tour of 49 cities in 1954: • 1.24 x 1061 feasible solutions For comparison: • There are 1011 stars in the galaxy • There are 1023 stars in the universe • G. Dantzig, R. Fulkerson, and S. Johnson solved problem “by hand” using the simplex algorithm • Used Rand McNally map to estimate distances • Proved solution was optimal • Story in Newsweek in 1954! EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 11
- 12. From transportation, logistics, and manufacturing… …to public sector, humanitarian applications, and beyond One sentiment in the 1960s in the United States: “If we can land a man on the moon…” ...why can't we attack fundamental societal problems using math and operations research? EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 12 OR evolves
- 13. A golden age of public safety research began in the 1960s New York City / RAND Institute Collaboration spurred new applied research • Methods span optimization, set covering, simulation, applied probability, queueing theory • New York City used simulation for the first time! Research had impact! • Papers appeared in the best operations research journals • Research was put into practice • Research won major awards • Lanchester, Edelman, NATO Systems Science Prize EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 13
- 14. So your mother wanted you to be a doctor, but a PhD in OR? “I have just completed my junior year at Harvard College where I am majoring in Applied Mathematics to Economics. I am currently in the process of deciding whether to go to graduate school for a Ph.D. in Operations Research.” EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 14
- 15. Firsts in OR • First course in operations research • Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1948, nonmilitary applications • The first university degree in OR • Master of Science at Case Institute of Technology in Ohio (now Case Western Reserve University) • First OR journal • Operational Research Quarterly, 1950 (now Journal of the Operational Research Society) • First operations researcher to be awarded a Nobel prize • Patrick Blackett, Physics, 1948 • Jan Tinbergen, Economics, 1969 (first in OR) • Elinor Ostrom, 2009 (first woman in OR) • First operations researcher elected to the National Academies (in US) • David Blackwell, National Academy of Sciences, 1965 • Also the first African American (overall, not just in OR) elected to NAS • First woman in OR elected to the National Academies • Margaret Wright, National Academy of Engineering, 1997 EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 15
- 16. Operations research was put on life support in 1978! Operations research was declared dead in 1979! “Operations research is dead even though it has yet to be buried” EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 16
- 17. OR survived and is flourishing! • Record setting OR conference attendance • INFORMS Annual Meeting attendance record in Seattle in 2019 • INFORMS Annual Meeting 2nd place attendance record in Phoenix in 2023 • Finalists for the INFORMS Franz Edelman Award have cumulatively contributed >$400 billion since its inception and countless other nonmonetary benefits. • INFORMS journals downloads setting record numbers (>4M/year) • IFORS has 54 member societies, 24 of which joined after OR declared dead in 1979 https://www.ifors.org/national-societies/ EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 17
- 18. What’s so great about operations research? Leverage data to make smart decisions in systems Create operational models of systems that capture the interconnected components and system performance Manage limited resources Study tradeoffs across multiple criteria We have a versatile toolbox for solving hard problems in consequential applications We never back down from a challenge! EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 18
- 19. Thank you! EURO 2024 Laura A. Albert 19 References 1.Florence N. Trefethen (1954). “A History of Operations Research,” in Joseph F. McCloskey and Florence N. Trefethen (eds.), Operations Research for Management, Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, pp. 3-35. 2.Articles and resources about the origins of operations research: https://www.informs.org/Explore/History-of-O.R.- Excellence/Bibliographies/The-Origins-of-OR 3.P.M. Morse (1952). Operations research – what is it? Journal of Applied Physics 23(2), 165-172. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1702167 4.Hall Jr, J. R., & Hess, S. W. (1978). OR/MS: Dead or dying? RX for survival. Interfaces, 8(3), 42-44. https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.8.3.42 5.Ackoff, R. L. (1979). The future of operational research is past. Journal of the operational research society, 30(2), 93-104. 6.Herbert Halbrecht, (1972). So your mother wanted you to be a doctor, but a PhD in OR? Interfaces, 2(2), pp. 44-49 My articles 1. L. Albert (2022). Operations research was declared dead in 1979. Punk Rock Operations Research blog post, Available at: https://punkrockor.com/2022/04/07/operations-research-was-declared-dead-in-1979/ 2. L. Albert (2023a). 10 facts about the origin of operations research. ORMS Today, Available at: https://pubsonline.informs.org/do/10.1287/orms.2023.03.04/full 3. L. Albert (2023b). On George Dantzig, Good Will Hunting, and Tackling Hard Problems. Punk Rock Operations Research blog post, Available at: https://punkrockor.com/2023/06/05/on-george-dantzig-good-will-hunting-and-tackling-hard-problems/ 4.L. Albert (2023c). Operations Research: What is it? Punk Rock Operations Research blog post, Available at: https://punkrockor.com/2023/07/31/operations-research-what-is-it/ 5.L. Albert (2023d). Post on LinkedIn. Available at: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7132404427998597120/