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UUnnlloocckkiinngg tthhee MMyysstteerriieess 
ooff HHyyppootthheessiiss TTeessttiinngg 
Muzamil Hussain 
Arsalan Shaikh 
Thanks to Sir 
Mohammad Rafique
What’s this all about? 
• Hypothesis 
• An educated guess 
• A claim or statement about a 
property of a population 
• The goal in Hypothesis Testing is to 
analyze a sample in an attempt to 
distinguish between population 
characteristics that are likely to occur 
and population characteristics that 
are uunnlliikkeellyy to occur.
• Null Hypothesis 
vs. Alternative 
Hypothesis 
• Type I vs. Type II 
Error 
" a vs. b 
The Basics
Null Hypothesis vs. Alternative 
Hypothesis 
Null Hypothesis 
• Statement about the 
value of a population 
parameter 
• Represented by H0 
• Always stated as an 
Equality 
Alternative Hypothesis 
• Statement about the 
value of a population 
parameter that must be 
true if the null 
hypothesis is false 
• Represented by H1 
• Stated in on of three 
forms 
• > 
• < 
• ¹
Type I vs. Type II Error 
Referring 
to Ho, the 
Null 
Hypothesis 
True False 
Reject Type I 
Error 
O.K 
Fail to 
Reject 
O.K. Type II 
Error
Alpha vs. Beta 
· a is the probability of Type I error 
· b is the probability of Type II error 
· The experimenters (you and I) have the 
freedom to set the a-level for a 
particular hypothesis test. That level is 
called the level of significance for the 
test. Changing a can (and often does) 
affect the results of the test—whether 
you reject or fail to reject H0.
Alpha vs. Beta, Part II 
• It would be wonderful if we could force 
both a and b to equal zero. 
Unfortunately, these quantities have 
an inverse relationship. As a 
increases, b decreases and vice versa. 
• The only way to decrease both a and b 
is to increase the sample size. To 
make both quantities equal zero, the 
sample size would have to be infinite— 
you would have to sample the entire 
population.
Type I and Type II Errors 
True State of Nature 
We decide to 
reject the 
null hypothesis 
We fail to 
reject the 
null hypothesis 
The null 
hypothesis is 
true 
The null 
hypothesis is 
false 
Type I error 
(rejecting a true 
null hypothesis) 
a 
Correct 
decision 
Type II error 
(rejecting a false 
null hypothesis) 
b 
Correct 
decision 
Decision
Forming Conclusions 
• Every hypothesis test ends with the 
experimenters (you and I) either 
• Rejecting the Null Hypothesis, or 
• Failing to Reject the Null Hypothesis 
• As strange as it may seem, you never 
aacccceepptt the Null Hypothesis. The best 
you can ever say about the Null 
Hypothesis is that you don’t have 
enough evidence, based on a sample, 
to reject it!
Seven Steps to Hypothesis 
Testing Happiness 
(Traditional or Classical Method)
The Seven Steps… 
1) Describe in words the population 
characteristic about which 
hypotheses are to be tested 
2) State the null hypothesis, Ho 
3) State the alternative hypothesis, H1 
or Ha 
4) Display the test statistic to be used
The Seven Steps… 
5) Identify the rejection region 
• Is it an upper, lower, or two-tailed 
test? 
• Determine the critical value 
associated with a, the level of 
significance of the test 
5) Compute all the quantities in 
the test statistic, and compute 
the test statistic itself
The Seven Steps… 
7) State the conclusion. That is, 
decide whether to reject the null 
hypothesis, Ho, or fail to reject the 
null hypothesis. The conclusion 
depends on the level of significance 
of the test. Also, remember to state 
your result in the context of the 
specific problem.
Types of Hypothesis Tests 
• Large Sample Tests, Population Mean 
(known population standard deviation) 
• Large Sample Tests, Population 
Proportion (unknown population 
standard deviation) 
• Small Sample Tests, Mean of a Normal 
Population
Test for mean one and 
two sample test
• Our focus in this Presentation is 
comparing the data from two different 
samples 
• For now, we will assume that these two 
different samples are independent of 
each other and come from two distinct 
populations 
Population 1:m 1 , s1 
Sample 1: , s1 
Population 2: m 2 , s2 
Sample 2: , s2
Two-Sample Z test 
 We want to test the null hypothesis that the two 
populations have different means 
• H0: m1 = m2 or equivalently, m1 - m2 = 0 
• Two-sided alternative hypothesis: m1 - m2 ¹ 0 
• If we assume our population SDs s1 and s2 are known, we 
can calculate a two-sample Z statistic: 
• We can then calculate a p-value from this Z statistic using 
the standard normal distribution 
X1=mean1 x2=mean2 s1  s2 = standard deviation N1  N2 = sample 1 and sample 2
Two-Sample t test 
 We still want to test the null hypothesis that the two 
populations have equal means (H0: m1 - m2 = 0) 
• If s1 and s2 are unknown, then we need to use the sample 
SDs s1 and s2 instead, which gives us the two-sample T 
statistic: 
• The p-value is calculated using the t distribution, but what 
degrees of freedom do we use? 
• df can be complicated and often is calculated by software 
• Simpler and more conservative: set degrees of freedom equal to 
the smaller of (n1-1) or (n2-1)
teast mean one and two sample
The End 
Actually, it’s just the 
beginning...

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teast mean one and two sample

  • 1. UUnnlloocckkiinngg tthhee MMyysstteerriieess ooff HHyyppootthheessiiss TTeessttiinngg Muzamil Hussain Arsalan Shaikh Thanks to Sir Mohammad Rafique
  • 2. What’s this all about? • Hypothesis • An educated guess • A claim or statement about a property of a population • The goal in Hypothesis Testing is to analyze a sample in an attempt to distinguish between population characteristics that are likely to occur and population characteristics that are uunnlliikkeellyy to occur.
  • 3. • Null Hypothesis vs. Alternative Hypothesis • Type I vs. Type II Error " a vs. b The Basics
  • 4. Null Hypothesis vs. Alternative Hypothesis Null Hypothesis • Statement about the value of a population parameter • Represented by H0 • Always stated as an Equality Alternative Hypothesis • Statement about the value of a population parameter that must be true if the null hypothesis is false • Represented by H1 • Stated in on of three forms • > • < • ¹
  • 5. Type I vs. Type II Error Referring to Ho, the Null Hypothesis True False Reject Type I Error O.K Fail to Reject O.K. Type II Error
  • 6. Alpha vs. Beta · a is the probability of Type I error · b is the probability of Type II error · The experimenters (you and I) have the freedom to set the a-level for a particular hypothesis test. That level is called the level of significance for the test. Changing a can (and often does) affect the results of the test—whether you reject or fail to reject H0.
  • 7. Alpha vs. Beta, Part II • It would be wonderful if we could force both a and b to equal zero. Unfortunately, these quantities have an inverse relationship. As a increases, b decreases and vice versa. • The only way to decrease both a and b is to increase the sample size. To make both quantities equal zero, the sample size would have to be infinite— you would have to sample the entire population.
  • 8. Type I and Type II Errors True State of Nature We decide to reject the null hypothesis We fail to reject the null hypothesis The null hypothesis is true The null hypothesis is false Type I error (rejecting a true null hypothesis) a Correct decision Type II error (rejecting a false null hypothesis) b Correct decision Decision
  • 9. Forming Conclusions • Every hypothesis test ends with the experimenters (you and I) either • Rejecting the Null Hypothesis, or • Failing to Reject the Null Hypothesis • As strange as it may seem, you never aacccceepptt the Null Hypothesis. The best you can ever say about the Null Hypothesis is that you don’t have enough evidence, based on a sample, to reject it!
  • 10. Seven Steps to Hypothesis Testing Happiness (Traditional or Classical Method)
  • 11. The Seven Steps… 1) Describe in words the population characteristic about which hypotheses are to be tested 2) State the null hypothesis, Ho 3) State the alternative hypothesis, H1 or Ha 4) Display the test statistic to be used
  • 12. The Seven Steps… 5) Identify the rejection region • Is it an upper, lower, or two-tailed test? • Determine the critical value associated with a, the level of significance of the test 5) Compute all the quantities in the test statistic, and compute the test statistic itself
  • 13. The Seven Steps… 7) State the conclusion. That is, decide whether to reject the null hypothesis, Ho, or fail to reject the null hypothesis. The conclusion depends on the level of significance of the test. Also, remember to state your result in the context of the specific problem.
  • 14. Types of Hypothesis Tests • Large Sample Tests, Population Mean (known population standard deviation) • Large Sample Tests, Population Proportion (unknown population standard deviation) • Small Sample Tests, Mean of a Normal Population
  • 15. Test for mean one and two sample test
  • 16. • Our focus in this Presentation is comparing the data from two different samples • For now, we will assume that these two different samples are independent of each other and come from two distinct populations Population 1:m 1 , s1 Sample 1: , s1 Population 2: m 2 , s2 Sample 2: , s2
  • 17. Two-Sample Z test We want to test the null hypothesis that the two populations have different means • H0: m1 = m2 or equivalently, m1 - m2 = 0 • Two-sided alternative hypothesis: m1 - m2 ¹ 0 • If we assume our population SDs s1 and s2 are known, we can calculate a two-sample Z statistic: • We can then calculate a p-value from this Z statistic using the standard normal distribution X1=mean1 x2=mean2 s1 s2 = standard deviation N1 N2 = sample 1 and sample 2
  • 18. Two-Sample t test We still want to test the null hypothesis that the two populations have equal means (H0: m1 - m2 = 0) • If s1 and s2 are unknown, then we need to use the sample SDs s1 and s2 instead, which gives us the two-sample T statistic: • The p-value is calculated using the t distribution, but what degrees of freedom do we use? • df can be complicated and often is calculated by software • Simpler and more conservative: set degrees of freedom equal to the smaller of (n1-1) or (n2-1)
  • 20. The End Actually, it’s just the beginning...

Editor's Notes

  • #9: page 376 of text