Technology trends-Computer food chain technologies
- 1. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture Technology Trends Pradondet Nilagupta Spring 2001 (original notes from Randy Katz, & Prof. Jan M. Rabaey , UC Berkeley)
- 2. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 2 Original Big Fishes Eating Little Fishes
- 3. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 3 1988 Computer Food Chain PC Work- station Mini- computer Mainframe Mini- supercomputer Supercomputer Massively Parallel Processors
- 4. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 4 1998 Computer Food Chain Mini- supercomputer Massively Parallel Processors Mini- computer PC Work- station Mainframe Supercomputer Now who is eating whom? Server
- 5. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 5 1985 Computer Food Chain Technologies PC Work- station Mini- computer Mainframe Mini- supercomputer Supercomputer ECL TTL MOS
- 6. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 6 Why Such Change in 10 years? (1/2) Function – Rise of networking/local interconnection techn ology Performance – Technology Advances • CMOS VLSI dominates TTL, ECL in cost & p erformance – Computer architecture advances improves low -end • RISC, Superscalar, RAID, …
- 7. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 7 Why Such Change in 10 years? (2/2) Price: Lower costs due to … – Simpler development • CMOS VLSI: smaller systems, fewer compo nents – Higher volumes • CMOS VLSI : same dev. cost 10,000 vs. 10,0 00,000 units – Lower margins by class of computer, due to fewer services
- 8. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 8 Technology Trends: Microprocessor Capacity Year Transistors 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000 100000000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 i80386 i4004 i8080 Pentium i80486 i80286 i8086 Moore’s Law CMOS improvements: • Die size: 2X every 3 yrs • Line width: halve / 7 yrs “Graduation Window” Alpha 21264: 15 million Pentium Pro: 5.5 million PowerPC 620: 6.9 million Alpha 21164: 9.3 million Sparc Ultra: 5.2 million
- 9. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 9 Memory Capacity (Single Chip DRAM) size Year Bits 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000 100000000 1000000000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 year size(Mb) cyc time 1980 0.0625 250 ns 1983 0.25 220 ns 1986 1 190 ns 1989 4 165 ns 1992 16 145 ns 1996 64 120 ns 2000 256 100 ns
- 10. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 10 CMOS Improvements Die size 2X every 3 yrs Line widths halve every 7 yrs 0 5 10 15 20 25 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 Die Size Line Width Improvement Die size increase plus transistor count increase Transistor Count
- 11. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 11 Memory Size of Various Systems Over Time 128K 128M 2000 8K 1M 8M 1G 8G 1970 1980 1990 1 chip 1Kbit 640K 4K 16K 64K 256K 1M 4M 16M 64M 256M DOS limit 1/8 chip 8 chips-PC 64 chips workstation 512 chips 4K chips Bytes Time
- 12. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 12 Technology Trends (Summary) Capacity Speed (latency) Logic 2x in 3 years 2x in 3 years DRAM 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years Disk 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years
- 13. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 13 Processor Frequency Trend Frequency doubles each generation Number of gates/clock reduce by 25% 386 486 Pentium(R) Pentium Pro (R) Pentium(R) II MPC750 604+ 604 601, 603 21264S 21264 21164A 21164 21064A 21066 10 100 1,000 10,000 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Mhz 1 10 100 Gate Delays/ Clock Intel IBM Power PC DEC Gate delays/clock Processor freq scales by 2X per generation
- 14. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 14 Processor Performance Trends Microprocessors Minicomputers Mainframes Supercomputers 0.1 1 10 100 1000 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
- 15. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 15 Performance vs. Time Mips 25 MHz 0.1 1.0 10 100 Performance (VAX 780s) 1980 1985 1990 MV10K 68K 780 5 MHz RISC 60% / yr. uVAX 6K (CMOS) 8600 TTL ECL 15%/yr. CMOS CISC 38%/yr. o | | MIPS (8 MHz) o 9000 Mips (65 MHz) uVAX CMOS Will RISC continue on a 60%, (x4 / 3 years)? 4K
- 16. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 16 Processor Performance (1.35X before, 1.55X now) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 DEC Alpha 2 1 1 6 4 /6 0 0 DEC Alpha 5/5 0 0 DEC Alpha 5/3 0 0 DEC Alpha 4/2 6 6 IBM POWER 1 0 0 DEC AXP/5 0 0 HP 9 0 0 0 /7 5 0 Sun-4/2 6 0 IBM RS/6 0 0 0 MIPS M/1 2 0 MIPS M/2 0 0 0 1.54X/yr
- 17. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 17 Summary: Performance Trends Workstation performance (measured in Spec Marks) improves roughly 50% per year (2X every 18 months) Improvement in cost performance estimated at 70% per year
- 18. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 18 Processor Perspective Putting performance growth in perspective: IBM POWER2 Cray YMP Workstation Supercomputer Year 1993 1988 MIPS > 200 MIPS < 50 MIPS Linpack 140 MFLOPS 160 MFLOPS Cost $120,000 $1M ($1.6M in 1994$) Clock 71.5 MHz 167 MHz Cache 256 KB 0.25 KB Memory 512 MB256 MB 1988 supercomputer in 1993 server!
- 19. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 19 Where Has This Performance Improvement Come From? Technology? Organization? Instruction Set Architecture? Software? Some combination of all of the above?
- 20. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 20 Performance Trends Revisited (Architectural Innovation) Microprocessors Minicomputers Mainframes Supercomputers Year 0.1 1 10 100 1000 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 CISC/RISC
- 21. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 21 Performance Trends Revisited (Microprocessor Organization) Year Transistors 1000 10000 100000 1000000 10000000 100000000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 r4400 r4000 r3010 i80386 i4004 i8080 i80286 i8086 • Bit Level Parallelism • Pipelining • Caches • Instruction Level Parallelism • Out-of-order Xeq • Speculation • . . .
- 22. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 22 What is Ahead? Greater instruction level parallelism? Bigger caches? Multiple processors per chip? Complete systems on a chip? (Portable Systems) High performance LAN, Interface, and Interconnect
- 23. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 23 Hardware Technology 1980 1990 2000 Memory chips 64 K 4 M 256 M-1 G Speed 1-2 20-40 400-1000 5-1/4 in. disks 40 M 1 G 20 G Floppies .256 M 1.5 M 500-2,000 M LAN (Switch) 2-10 Mbits 10 (100) 155-655 (ATM) Busses 2-20 Mbytes 40-400
- 24. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 24 Software Technology 1980 1990 2000 Languages C, FORTRAN C++, HPF object stuff?? Op. System proprietary +DUM* +DUM+NT User I/F glass Teletype WIMP* stylus, voice, audio,video, ?? Comp. Styles T/S, PC Client/Server agents*mobile New things PC & WS parallel proc. appliances Capabilities WP, SS WP,SS, mail video, ?? DUM = DOS, n-UNIX's, MAC WIMP = Windows, Icons, Mouse, Pull-down menus Agents = robots that work on information
- 25. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 25 Computing 2001 (1/2) Continue quadrupling memory every 3 years – 1K chip in 72 becomes 1 gigabit chip (128 Mbyt es) in 2002 On-line 12-25 Gigabytes; $10 1-Gbyt e floppies & CDs Micros increase at 60% per year ... p arallelism Radio links for untethered computing
- 26. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 26 Computing 2001 (2/2) Telephone, fax, radio, television, camera, house, ... Real personal (watch, wallet,notepad) computers We should be able to simulate: – Nearly everything we make and their factories – Much of the universe from the nucleus to galaxies Performance implies: voice and visual Ease of use. Agents!
- 27. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 27 Applications: Unlimited Opportunities (1/2) Office agents: phone/FAX/comm; files/paper handling Untethered computing: fully distributed offices ?? Integration of video, communication, and computing: desktop video publishing, conferencing, & mail Large, commercial transaction processing systems Encapsulate knowledge in a computer: scientific & engineering simulation (e.g.. planetarium, wind tunnel, ... )
- 28. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 28 Applications: Unlimited Opportunities (2/2) Visualization & virtual reality Computational chemistry e.g. biochemistry and materials Mechanical engineering without prototypes Image/signal processing: medicine, maps, surveillance. Personal computers in 2001 are today's supercomputers Integration of the PC & TV => TC
- 29. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 29 Challenges for 1990s Platforms (1/2) 64-bit computers video, voice, communication, any really ne w apps? Increasingly large, complex systems and e nvironments Usability? Plethora of non-portable, distributed, inco mpatible, non-interoperable computers: Us ability? Scalable parallel computers can provide “c ommodity supercomputing”: Markets and t rained users?
- 30. December 20, 2024 204521 Digital System Architecture 30 Challenges for 1990s Platforms (2/2) Apps to fuel and support a chubby industry: communications, paper/office, and digital video The true portable, wireless communication computer Truly personal card, pencil, pocket, wallet computer Networks continue to limit: WAN, ISDN, and ATM?