The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Employer Demand

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 1Confidential
Best Practices in
Program Research:
Employer Demand
March 2, 2017

Confidential www.GrayAssociates.com 2
Evaluating Markets for Programs
Best-practices: inclusive process with sound data on four topics.
Student
Demand
February 2
Employment
March 2
Degree
Fit
March 30
Competitive
Intensity
March 30
Decision-Making Process
April 22

Best-practices: inclusive process with sound data on four topics.
Student
Demand
February 2
Employment
March 2
Degree
Fit
March 30
Competitive
Intensity
March 30
April 22

The Bureau of Labor Statistics
BLS is a primary source and its employment data is easy to access.

Employment Opportunity Data: BLS
BLS surveys employers to estimate employment by Standard Occupation Code (SOC).
SOCs are assigned to all people who do similar work
49-9052.00
Telephone Line Installers and Repairers29-1065.00
Pediatrician

NCES crosswalks intentionally draw a tight link between programs and SOCs.
NCES Crosswalks
History, General
CIP 54.0101
Managers, All Other
SOC 11-9199
Historians
SOC 19-3093
Source: National Center for Education Statistics: SOC 2010 mapped to CIP.
History Teachers, Postsecondary
SOC 25-1125
Secondary School Teachers, Except Special
and Career/Technical Education
SOC 25-2031

1 4
462
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
CIPs (Programs) NCES Matched SOCs Actual Employment: SOCs
Count of Programs and Occupations
CIP 54.0101 History, General
Reality: Loose Alignment, especially for Liberal Arts
NCES Crosswalks
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Gray analysis of over 2.0 million records.

Even for one program, occupations are very diverse—from CEO to salesperson.
ACS Actual Fields of Employment
11%
7%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0% 5% 10% 15%
Lawyers, Judges, other Judicial
Teachers: Elem. & Mid. School
Postsecondary Teachers
Miscellaneous Managers
Secondary School Teachers
Education Administrators
Chief Executives and Legislators
Clergy
Retail Salespersons
First-line Supervisors: Retail
Administrative Assistants
Management Analysts
Sales Reps, Wholesale and Manufacturing
Accountants and Auditors
Librarians
Physicians and Surgeons
First-line Supervisors: Non-Retail Sales
Customer Service Representatives
Financial Managers
General and Operations Managers
What do History Majors Really Do?
Percentage of History Majors by Occupation
High Status
Education
Other

85% of BLS projected growth rates are oﬀ by 50% or more.
BLS Forecast Accuracy
2%
3%
10%
21%
23% 23%
19%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
<10% 10-25% 25-50% 50-75% 75-100% 100-150% 150+
Percentage
of SOCs
Percentage Error
BLS Forecast Error
Actual Employment vs. Projected Employment Growth
2012-2015
Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics and BLS Employment Projections 2012-2022.
Note: BLS forecasts are for 2022. BLS 2012 base and annual growth rate vs. actual growth from 2012 to 2015.

BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook

BLS Occupational Employment Statistics
Despite its limitations, BLS is a frequently-used source on employment.

BLS 10th-Percentile Wages
Wage profiles by occupation are available from BLS.
$57,480
$81,350
$119,280
$168,390
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
10th Percentile 25th Percentile Median 75th Percentile
BLS Wages
Wages by Percentile
Marketing and Sales Manager 11-2020.00
Source: BLS Occupational Employment Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/oes

Educational Attainment of Workers By SOC
Educational attainment indicates the degree level needed in the occupation.

Placement Rates
Placement rates by program highlight the employability of program graduates.

Placement Rates
Regulations require many institutions to disclose placement rates on their websites.

Job Postings: Employer-Site or Total?
Job-posting data come from three sources, which vary in quality.
Job Sites
Recruiters
Employers ✔

Job Postings Data
Job postings are available from Burning Glass, CEB TalentNeuron, and others.

Job postings in 2014 were a reliable predictor of job postings in 2016.
Job Postings: Predictive Power
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
2016
Job Postings
2014 Job Postings
Job Postings
By 8-Digit SOC
Source: Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions.
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staﬃng Agencies.
Correlation: 0.969
Registered Nurses
Retail Salespersons
Managers, All Other
Security Guards

Data for a single program is a challenge to interpret.
Data Interpretation
New Job Postings: 153,611
?

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percentiles and color codes aide interpretation.
Data Interpretation
New Job Postings
Percentiles for all Programs
N =1,000
Program 1: 153,611
Program 800: 10,000
Program
Percentile

Interpreting employment information requires a context.
Employment Data: Interpretation

Agenda
1.  Employment Opportunity Data: Sources, Uses, and Limitations
2.  U.S. Employment Trends: Job Postings

10%
3%
0%
-2%
-10% 0% 10% 20%
High school or vocational training
Associate's degree
Graduate or professional degree
Bachelor's degree
2016 YoY Change in Job Postings*
(January through December)
Job Postings: Required Degree Level
National Job Postings illustrate degree requirements and trends.
Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017.

Job Postings: Geographic Density
Employment is a very local phenomenon, led by the West Coast.
Map circle size represents ratio of job postings to employed population.
Metro
Area

Job
Pos-ngs
per
10,000

people
employed

Portland-‐Vancouver-‐Hillsboro
307

San
Francisco-‐Oakland-‐Hayward
301

Sea>le-‐Tacoma-‐Bellevue,
275

Denver-‐Aurora-‐Lakewood,
259

Washington-‐Arlington-‐Alexandria
256

Atlanta-‐Sandy
Springs-‐Roswell
230

Dallas-‐Fort
Worth-‐Arlington
219

Phoenix-‐Mesa-‐Sco>sdale
209

Boston-‐Cambridge-‐Nashua
195

Philadelphia-‐Camden-‐Wilmington
189

New
York-‐Newark-‐Jersey
City
159

Los
Angeles-‐Long
Beach-‐Anaheim
148

Houston-‐The
Woodlands-‐Sugar
Land
146

Chicago-‐Naperville-‐Elgin,
139

Miami-‐Fort
Lauderdale-‐West
Palm
Beach
135

Job Postings: The Big 5 Cities
Employer demand trends vary substantially by location.
6%
-9%
19%
23%
15%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
New York, NY Houston, TX San Francisco, CA Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA
2016 YoY Job Posting Growth
Five Cities with the Most Job Postings

Job Postings: Salaries in the Big 5 Cities
Wages also vary by location.
649 758
371 473 781
908 527
476 283
704
1,651
756
842
313
878
2,121
567
1,874
1,251
1,010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
New York, NY Houston, TX San Francisco, CA Atlanta, GA Los Angeles, CA
Five Cities with the Most Job Postings
2016 Salary Distribution
More than $75,000
$50,000 to $74,999
$35,000 to $49,999
Less than $35,000
Avg. Salary $70,716 $57,014 $81,255 $77,996 $62,684
Source: Data from Burning Glass Technologies, Labor Insight™ Real-Time Labor Market Information Tool, http://www.burning-glass.com 2017. Technologies.
Employer-site postings only. Excludes job postings from Job Boards and Staﬃng Agencies. Excludes job postings without salary information.
Job
Postings

Job Postings: Ten Largest Occupations
Healthcare and IT took the top five slots for job posting volume.
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Registered Nurses
Managers, All Other
Computer Occupations, All Other
Software Developers, Applications
Medical and Health Services Managers
Sales Managers
General and Operations Managers
Human Resources Specialists
Management Analysts
Financial Managers
Job Postings in 2016
Ten Largest Occupations
Data are job postings for permanent full-time positions that require a college degree (Associate’s or higher).
Managers
Healthcare
IT

The fastest-growing occupations are dominated by healthcare and education.
Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Occupations
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education
Pharmacists
Medical Equipment Repairers
Education Administrators, Preschool and
Special Education Teachers, All Other
Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists
Radiologic Technologists
Chemists
Respiratory Therapists
Speech-Language Pathologists
Ten Fastest-Growing Occupations in the U.S.
Education
Healthcare

Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Skill Clusters
The top skill cluster is Microsoft Oﬃce.
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
IT: Microsoft Office and Productivity Tools
Business: People Management
Customer and Client Support: Basic Customer
Finance: Budget Management
Business: Project Management
Sales: General Sales
Administration: Scheduling
Business: Business Process and Analysis
Business: Business Management
Business: Business Strategy
Ten Most-Requested Skill-Clusters

Job Postings: Most Requested Specialized Skills
Microsoft Excel is the most frequently-requested specialized skill.
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000
Microsoft Excel
Microsoft Office
Budgeting
Scheduling
Supervisory Skills
Customer Service
Project Management
Microsoft Powerpoint
Sales
Microsoft Word
Ten Most-Requested Specialized Skills in the US
Microsoft
Other

Half of the ten fastest-growing specialized skill clusters are in healthcare.
Job Postings: Ten Fastest Growing Skill Clusters
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Supply Chain and Logistics: Inventory
Health Care: Pharmacy
Finance: Cash Management
Health Care: Medical Procedure and Regulation
Health Care: Medical Records
Marketing and Public Relations: Packaging and
Administration: Office Machines
Health Care: Patient Reception
Health Care: Medical Billing and Coding
Finance: Financial Advisement
Ten Fastest-Growing Skill Clusters
Other
Healthcare

Job Postings: Ten Most Requested Certifications
Nationally, healthcare, especially RN, dominates the jobs requiring certification.
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000120,000
Registered Nurse
Security Clearance
Project Management Certification (e.g., PMP)
Basic Cardiac Life Support Certification
Certified Public Accountant (CPA)
Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS)
Series 7
American Heart Association Certificate
Cert. Info. Sys. Security. Pro. (CISSP)
Nurse Practitioner
Ten Most-Requested Certifications in the U.S.
1. Includes only the 200 largest certifications in occupations that require at least an Associate’s degree.
Other
Healthcare

Interpreting employment information requires a context.
Employment Data: Interpretation

CIP 43.0107 – Criminal Justice/Police Science.
Program Scorecard: Employment

Best-practices: gather sound data on four topics.
Student
Demand
February 2
Employment
March 2
Degree
Fit
March 30
Competitive
Intensity
March 30

Employment in Context

Summary
§  BLS data is readily available, but is dated and a weak indicator of trends.
§  Job posting data is vital for trends in employment growth, skills and certifications.
§  Aligning labor data (SOCs) with programs (CIPs) is hard and error-prone.
§  Numbers for one program lack the context needed to interpret the data.
§  Employment is only one part of the puzzle.
§  As a result, DIY is quite expensive, time-consuming, and error-prone.
§  Gray’s Program Evaluation System can do the heavy lifting for you.
Assessing employer demand in your markets is no easy task.

On March 30th we will share best practices for assessing Competition and Fit.
Student
Demand
February 2
Employment
March 2
Degree
Fit
March 30
Competitive
Intensity
March 30
April 22

For More Information
To contact Gray Associates:
Bob Atkins
CEO
Gray Associates, Inc.
Bob.Atkins@GrayAssociates.com
617-366-2836

The Best Practices in Program Portfolio Evaluation - Employer Demand

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