(1) Open innovation has become more important over time due to globalization and dispersion of knowledge sources, but new challenges have emerged that are changing the open innovation model.
(2) Concerns around technology transfer to China and the bifurcation of the global economic system are driving a transition in open innovation, with new rules and agreements between countries and "clubs" likely to emerge.
(3) The open innovation model may split into separate systems for liberal democracies and autocracies, each with different rules, as countries prioritize technological value capture over just value creation.