The Demographic Transition: A Systems Model
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The document discusses the demographic transition model and its impact on female populations across various age groups, highlighting factors such as birth rates, death rates, and improvements in education and health. It includes UN population projections and illustrates population change across different stages of development with examples from multiple countries. Additionally, it emphasizes the role of selected variables like literacy in influencing demographic trends, particularly in Nigeria.
The Demographic Transition: A Systems Model
- 1. #wfs12 #besthf 07.29.2012 The Demographic Transition Emily Empel I @localrat Heather Schlegel I @Heathervescent
- 2. Females Aged >100 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL Females Aged 90-99 Females Aged 80-89 Females Aged 70-79 Females Aged 60-69 Female Birth Rate Female Births Female Deaths Female Death Rate Females Aged 50-59 Technology Birth Control Education Improvements Females Aged 40-49 Females Aged 30-39 Females Aged 20-29 Females Aged 10-19 Females Aged <1-9 First Model
- 4. 11 10.6 High 10 Medium Low 9 8.9 8 Population (in billions) 7.4 7 6.1 6 5 4 3 2.5 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 UN Population Projections
- 5. Africa Asia 10 Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania 9 Northern America Europe 8 Population (in billions) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2250 2250 2300 UN Population Projections by Region
- 6. Population Change Model + Birth Rates Death Rates - = Growth Rate The Demographic Transition
- 7. Agricultural ~40/1000 Birth rate Growth rate Death rate Industrial ~15/1000 The Demographic Transition
- 8. Variables
- 9. Food supply improvements. Public health improvements. Decline in infectious disease. Health education. Literacy. Living Costs. Urbanization. Value Systems. Influencing Factors
- 10. 65 Age Male Female 15 Stage 1: Expanding Stage 2: Expanding Stage 3: Stationary Stage 4: Contracting Developing Developed Population Pyramids
- 11. Stag e Country 2003 Birth 2003 Death 2011 Birth 2011 Death 1 Nigeria 38 13.7 35.5 16 Guatemal 2 a 35 6.7 26.9 4.9 3 Mexico 21.9 4.9 19.1 4.8 4 Sweden 9.7 10.5 10.1 10.2 Stages and Example Data
- 12. Climate Change. Food Preferences. Resource Constraints. Energy. Global Implications
- 13. The Model
- 14. Selected Variables 4 10 6B 2 5 3B 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria Desired family size : Nigeria Total pop : Nigeria BOT - Baseline
- 15. Selected Variables 400 M 4 10 200 M 2 5 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Age 0 to 4 : Nigeria Desired BR : Nigeria Desired family size : Nigeria BOT - Baseline
- 16. 65 Age Male Female 15 Stage 1: Expanding Stage 2: Expanding Stage 3: Stationary Stage 4: Contracting Developing Developed Population Pyramids
- 18. Literacy Variable The Model with Literacy Variable
- 19. Selected Variables 4 4 6B 2 2 3B 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria_education Daughter to Mother ratio : Nigeria Desired BR : Nigeria_education Desired BR : Nigeria Total pop : Nigeria_education Total pop : Nigeria BOT with Literacy Variable compared
- 20. Total pop 6B 4.5 B 3B 1.5 B 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Total pop : Nigeria_education Total pop : Nigeria Total Population BOT with Variable
- 21. Desired BR 4 3 2 1 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Time (Year) Desired BR : Nigeria_education Desired BR : Nigeria BOT Birth Rate with Variable
- 22. Emily Empel I @localrat Heather Schlegel I @Heathervescent Structural Change: Education
- 23. Variables
Editor's Notes
- #24: The systems model developed considers the following variables and behaviors as key in understanding the essential theory of the demographic transition. First, the amount of females is broken up into 11 different stocks ranging from “Age 0-4” to “Age 50 and Up”. The incremental stocks, or cohort breakdowns, were determined by (A) infant mortality rate and (B) female reproductive changes that take place between “Ages 15-19”. (See Endnote ? for a detailed variable list). On the right side of the model, each cohort stock is linked to a “Death Rate”, “Age Specific Mortality Rate (ASMR)”, and “Deaths”, which in turn determine the number of “Survivors” per cohort. The crude death rate is defined as the total number of deaths per year per 1000 people. Whereas the ASMR is refers to the total number of deaths per year per 1000 people of a given age. Since we wanted to manipulate the model, the ASMR feeds into the crude death rate and is combined in turn with a general mortality factor. So, for instance if a new technology is introduced within society we can observe its impact by altering the “General Mortality Factor” variable. The left side of the model is focused on “Desired Family Size” and the “Birth Rate”. Beginning at cohort, “Age 15-19”, birth rate per cohort is determined by factoring in the “Desired Birth Rate” which stems from “Desired Family Size”. The “Mother to Daughter Ratio” influences the “Net Change” in “Desired Family Size”. When daughters observe that less infants make it to adulthood they are inclined to have a greater number of children. Conversely, when accounting for decreases in birth rates, as more infants live to adulthood and it costs more to have a child the “Desired Family Size” decreases.