The Future of Forecasting
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The document discusses the evolving nature of forecasting, emphasizing the importance of data collection, analytical tools, and human decision-making. It highlights the challenges of fitting traditional forecasting methods into a complex, transformative world while underscoring that forecasting is a widespread activity across various professions. Key trends impacting the future of forecasting include advancements in technology such as Moore's Law, quantum computing, and the omnipresence of sensors.
The Future of Forecasting
- 1. THE FUTURE OF FORECASTING ERIC GARLAND
- 2. Forecasting has been, is, and will always be about collecting data, applying analytical tools, and convincing decision makers. THE FUTURE: More data collected More help from software Considerably more complexity Still the same human activity TL;DR
- 3. EVERYBODY FORECASTS • CEOs • Financial forecasters • Product managers • Supply chain engineers • Geopolitical risk analysts • Subject matter experts • Futurists • Bankers • People getting a puppy • Kids picking a college major • Anyone who has babies • Anyone who wants to retire
- 5. Let’s do some mid-term normative scenarios on rain and saber-toothed tigers.
- 6. Same impulse, crappy data set, crappy tools
- 7. “What sir? You would make a ship that sails against the winds and tides? I have no time for such nonsense.” - Napoleon Bonaparte to Robert Fulton, 1803
- 8. “It has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communications. The device is inherently of no use to us.” - Western Union, internal memo, 1876
- 9. OMG THIS TECHNOLOGY WILL LEAD TO WORLD PEACE!
- 10. WORLD PEACE!
- 11. WORLD PEACE!
- 12. WORLD PEACE!
- 14. How did we miss this?
- 15. In 2003, the Japanese Nuclear Commission said this would happen once per million years.
- 16. OUR CURRENT PREDICAMENT: We try to fit mechanistic, incremental forecasting into a complex, transformative world
- 17. WHERE WE GO FROM HERE: Trends driving the future of forecasting
- 18. STRATEGIC TRENDS Moore’s Law Continues Advanced sensor arrays Quantum computing Massive Data™ Advanced algorithms Virtual reality People remain people
- 19. INTEL FORECAST: MOORE’S LAW WILL FUNCTION THROUGH 2021 AND BEYOND
- 21. MICROSOFT FORECAST: FIRST QUANTUM COMPUTER BY 2026
- 22. MASSIVE DATA
- 23. A LITTLE HELP FROM OUR FRIENDS