Forecasting

Introduction
Volume forecasting is a method of predicting the
volume of sales for future period. The forecasting must
depict the following in order to be practical.
The total number of covers.
Their choice of menu items.

The process of volume forecast resolves itself in two
stages.
The Initial Forecast
Final Forecast
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The Initial Forecast
It is done once a week in respect of each day of

the following week. It is based on sales histories
data relating to advance bookings and finally
current trends. When the initial forecast has been
completed the predicted sakes are converted into
quantities of raw materials, purchase orders are
then prepared and sent to the supplier.

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Final Forecast
This takes place the day before the actual

preparation and service of food, it takes into
account the latest development, the weather
conditions any left overs suitable or reheating and
enables essential adjustment to the initial forecast
to be made e.g. supplier orders could be amended.

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NB// Volume forecasting is not a perfect method of

prediction but it helps to minimize over and under
production of food. It is particularly effective in
conjunction with a system of cyclic menus.
Pre-costing
This is a method of controlling food cost in advance of
the preparation and services.

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Standard Recipe

This is a recipe prepared by the establishment for use.
It is necessary to ensure consistency in cost in food
quality and portion sizes within a particular catering
unit.

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Objectives of Volume
Forecasting
To predict the total number of meals to be sold in

each selling outlet of an establishment.
To predict the choice of menu items by customers.
To facilitate purchasing.
To ensure availability of all necessary ingredients.
To control food cost in relation to sales.

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To enable the food controller to compare the actual

volume of business done by each of the selling outlet
within the potential volume of business as forecasted
and also for management to take action where
necessary. The comparison may be by total volume of
sales, by total number of customers, by total no of
main cost of customers, by total no of main cost of
meals.

NB// Very few of the objectives are achieved by the

establishment causing food cost going higher than the
necessary and reduced profit money.
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Aids to Volume Forecast
Cyclic Menus
These are series of fixed or semi-fixed menus which are
repeated at a set period. The length of the period is
usually related to the length of the menu. E.g. 21
days for a menu of 3 main courses, 14 days for a
menu of 3 main courses. Cyclic menus are often
used in canteens, hospitals, schools and restaurants
offering table d’hote menus.
1.

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The main advantages are:
a)By using a cyclic menu a pattern will emerge which
will show clear trends in customers likes and dislike of
menu items in particularly when offered with a specific
range of alternatives.
b)The staff requirements may be worked out very
accurately especially in the production where necessary
materials are required.

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2. Sales histories

This is a detailed record of actual sales on potential and
actual sales for selling outlets. Its purpose is to
provide an accurate record of food produced and
sold compared with the forecast figures which can
be used as a reference of forecasting future demand.

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3. Standard yield

The term yield may be referred to as the edible or the
usable part of food item which is available after
preparation and cooking. A standard yield is the
yield obtainable when a food item is processed in a
particular standard method of preparation, cooking
and portioning of the establishment. The items
must be purchased to the known standards of the
establishment.

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OBJECTIVES OF STANDARD
YIELD
To establish the standard for the quantity and
number of portions obtainable from a specified food
item.
2. To establish a standard for comparison with
operating result and thereby measure the efficiency
of the production department.
3. To establish an objective method of further
evaluating standard purchasing specifications.
1.

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4. To establish a standard cost factor for the item of

food.
5. To assist in menu costing and pricing.
6. To assist in converting forecast requirement into
raw material requirement.

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OBJECTIVES OF STANDARD
RECIPE
1. To pre-determine the quantities and the quality of the

ingredients to be used stating the standard purchase
specification.
2. To pre-determine the yield obtainable from a recipe if
a standard yield has not been prepared.
3. To pre-determine the food cost per portion.
4. To pre-determine the nutritional value of a particular
dish.
5. To facilitate menu planning.
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6. To restrict the dominance of a dish by colours

ingredients and flavors.
7. To facilitate food preparation by using standard
product for a particular dish and process them by a
standard method. This ensures a standard quality
of the dish for customers at all time.

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Yield test
Raw yield
Initial raw yield

Weight
14

Ratio %
100

Less bones, fat & trimmings 2.8

20

Celebal raw weight

11.2

80

Breakdown total

14

100

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portion in the kitchen
£

Cooked meat cost
Cost of labour for preparation
Cost of overheads
Net profit
Selling price
Gross profit

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0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.2
1.2

% of selling
price

40
30
20
10
100

Wholesale cuts
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Price ratio between different cuts, beef joint quarter
or side.
lamb joint or carcass
mutton joint or carcass
pork joint quarter, carcass or side
veal joint quarter carcass or side.

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Example

A wholesale cut carcass of lamb weighing 15kg (approx.
32t) is purchased at 85t per kg. Total wholesale cost
for 15kg at 85t per kg = 15x85= 1275
Bone and cooking loss

The trimmings boning and cooking loss of meat is
always calculated as a % of the raw meat purchased.

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Treatment of meat
The joint of meat is weighed before cooking.
The joint of meat is weighed after cooking.

The cooking loss as a % is calculated e.g.
Joint before cooking 8.0 kg
Joining after cooking 6.5 kg
Calculate the cooking loss as a percentage of raw meat
8.0kg – 6.5kg = 1.5kg
% = 1.5/8.0x100 = 18.75kg
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After carving the bones and the scraps the weight of

trimming and bone loss is established e.g.
Raw meat weight 8kg
Weight of bones and scraps 2kg
Calculate the weight of bones and scraps as a
percentage of raw meat
2/8x100 = 25

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Calculate the weight of usable cooked meat

2.0kg (bones & scraps) + 1.5kg (cooking loss) = 3.5kg
8.0kg – 3.5kg = 4.5kg
% = 4.5/8.0x100 = 56.25kg

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If the standard portion of food to be served is 150g
calculate the number of portion that the cover will
produce.
Change kg into g
1kg = 1000g
4.5kg = ?
1000/1x4.5 = 4500g
4500/150 = 30 portions

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Cooking yield

Weight

Celebal raw weight

11

Shrinkage

2

Ratio
6

81.25

8

17.86

Celebal cooked meat 8

14

63.39

Skim and fat

2

15.18

2

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NB: Raw and cooked portion cost factor includes
name of the dish portion size number of portions,
cost per portion * 1b = 16
1.Ratio of servable weight to the original weight is equal

to servable weight over the original weight.
2.Cost per servable pounds is equal to as purchased
price per pound over % original weight.
3.Cost factor is equal to cost per pound servable weight
over as purchased price.
4.portion cost is equal to cost per servable pounds
divided by number of portions.
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MEAT COSTING
After comparing costs the caterer will decide which is

the most suitable and economical method of
purchasing meat for his own particular establishment.

Portion control meat

Pre-portion steaks, chops, steakletts, hamburgers are
normally purchased at a higher price per kg which is a
reflection of the lab our involved in cutting and
portioning the meat to size. This can be off-set by a
decrease in lab our or overhead cost. E.g. 225g filled
steak.
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Cooked Meat
To calculate the price per kg and per portion of the

served meat, the following formula’s can be used.
Formular 1
Served meat price per kg = Weight of raw meat x raw
meat price per kg divided by weight of usable cooked
meat.

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Formular 2

Served meat price per kg = raw meat price per kg x 100%
divided by usable cooked meat % of raw meat.
Formular 3

Served meat price per portion = weight of raw meat x
raw meat price per kg divided by number of portions
of cooked meat served.

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Forecasting

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Forecasting