The Rise of Artificial Intelligence
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The document discusses the rise of artificial intelligence and its implications for jobs and the economy, highlighting a stagnation in labor hours despite population growth and increased business output. It outlines the transformative effects of AI and automation on various sectors, emphasizing the need for businesses to adapt to technological advancements to remain competitive. The document also suggests policy measures to support those affected by these changes, such as enhancing the safety net and considering guaranteed basic income.
The Rise of Artificial Intelligence
- 1. © 2015 Information Services Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Keynote
- 2. The Rise of Artificial Intelligence Implications for Jobs and the Economy Martin Ford
- 3. Labor hours in the business sector 1998: 194 billion hours of labor 2013 -- 15 years later: ■ Business output up by 42% or $3.5 trillion ■ U.S. population up by over 40 million people
- 4. Labor hours in the business sector 2013: 194 billion hours of labor “no growth at all in the number of hours worked over this 15-year period, despite the fact that the U.S population gained over 40 million people during that time, and despite the fact that there were thousands of new businesses established during that time.” -- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, May, 2014
- 5. What makes IT different? ■ Exponential -- at least 27 doublings ■ Delivers machine intelligence -- substitutes for cognitive labor ■ General purpose technology -- invades every business and economic sector
- 6. Historical examples ■ Mechanization of Agriculture ■ Specialized / Mechanical ■ Manufacturing and service sectors available to absorb workers ■ Most jobs are routine on some level ■ 1900: farm worker ■ 1950: factory worker ■ 2014: Walmart / Routine White collar
- 7. New industries not labor intensive ■ General Motors 1979 (Peak Jobs) ■ 840,000 workers ■ $11 billion in earnings (2012 dollars) ■ Google 2012 ■ 38,000 workers (4.5% of GM) ■ $14 billion in earnings (20% > GM)
- 8. Old vs New: Occupations & Jobs Source: Gerald Huff, based on an analysis of BLS data
- 9. Productivity vs. Compensation Source: Economic Policy Institute
- 10. Labor’s Share of National Income Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, St. Louis Federal Reserve
- 11. Global Labor’s Share Source: Loukas Karabarbounis and Brent Neiman
- 12. Job Creation by Decade Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, St. Louis Federal Reserve (Zero)
- 13. Jobless Recoveries & Polarization Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, St. Louis Federal Reserve
- 14. Innovations in Robotics ■ Industrial Perception ■ 3D Machine Vision, Dexterity ■ Moves up to 1 box every second ■ Never tires; no injuries
- 15. Self-Driving Vehicles ■ Commercial Drivers ■ Shared Resource vs Owner/Operator ■ Huge impact on peripheral jobs & small businesses
- 17. White-collar Automation ■ Machine Learning / Specialized AI ■ Huge amounts of data being collected ■ eDiscovery, Wall Street Trading ■ Automation + Crowdsourcing ■ WorkFusion platform ■ Incremental automation
- 18. Earnings for College Graduates 25-34 Source: Progressive Policy Institute, Census Bureau
- 19. Impact on Consumer Demand ■ Machines do not consume ■ Only people and governments provide final demand for the economy ■ Businesses must be able to sell their output ■ Global Impact
- 20. Corporate Profits vs. Retail Sales Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
- 21. Business: Embrace the Disruption ■ AI, software automation and robotics will fundamentally transform business models ■ Businesses that don’t leverage the technology will likely find it impossible to compete
- 22. Policy: What Should We Do? ■ Near Term: Enhance the Safety Net ■ Longer Term: Decouple Jobs from Income ■ Guaranteed basic income ■ Incorporate incentives, especially for education
- 23. www.isg-one.com imagine your future™ let’s connect…