The Soft Grid 2013 Opening Presentation
- 2. Thank You!
- 3. Cumulatively, 57 million smart meters will have been deployed in the United States in the next two years US AMI Penetration 2015
- 4. Substation Automation System AMI Workforce Management RTU Upgrades GIS Integration OMS Upgrade Distribution Automation Smart Homes PMUs Time Source: EPRI, GTM Research You Are Here AnnualRateofDataIntake(TB) “Due to economies of scale, the faster and cheaper the devices become, the faster and cheaper data creation itself becomes. This creates something of a positive feedback loop which is hurtling us quickly toward the ‘internet of things’” GTM Analyst Note Utility Data Generation Curve
- 5. “GTM Research forecasts cumulative global spending on smart-grid-related analytics to top $20 billion between the years 2013-2020, with an annual spend of $3.98 billion globally in the year 2020. We estimate, the achieved return on this investment will exceed $120 billion globally over the same period” $1.11 $1.57 $1.95 $2.28 $2.60 $2.98 $3.60 $3.98 $0 $1 $1 $2 $2 $3 $3 $4 $4 $5 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 AnnualSpending(Billions) CumulativeSpending(Billions) China Europe North America Asia-Pacific Latin America CAGR 17 % Soft Grid Regional Forecast 2013 - 2020 GTM Analyst Note Global Utility Analytics Spending 2013 - 2020
- 6. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) ShareofOverallSmartGridMarket Analytics: Market Share & Growth
- 7. • Grid Optimization and Operational Intelligence • Asset Management Analytics • Crisis Management Analytics • DMS Analytics • Outage Management Analytics/Fault • Detection and Correction • Weather/Location data • Mobile Workforce Management • Energy Theft Soft Grid investment momentum globally is beginning to focus on some key markets. Some segments of the analytics market will grow quicker than others due to their immediate application. Enterprise Analytics Grid Analytics Consumer Analytics • Behavioral Analytics • Tiered Pricing - Trading, Selling Megawatts (DR) • Building Energy Management • Power Analytics (Load Flow) • Social Media Data Integration • DG/EV/Microgrid Analytics 2 1 3 • Moving from Traditional, Historical Analytics to Real-Time Predictive Analytics • Complete Situational Awareness • Business Intelligence • Trading with “live look” at the Grid • Simulation/Visualization $8.7b $4.2b $7.1b Soft Grid Investment Portfolio $20b Cumulative Market by 2020 “Many of these analytics and/or capabilities will rely on the same data, such that sound enterprise IT architecture design will play a vital role in their success” GTM Analyst Note All $ amounts represent cumulative market value by 2020 Investing in Soft Grid: Applications
- 8. GRID ANALYTICS Rank Application Key Features Implementation Complexity Maturity Primary Value Stream Key Markets 1 Outage Management More efficient detection and restoration of service outages Low High Avoided Operational Costs North America 2 Voltage Optimization Dynamically adjusting voltages via closed-loop feedback Medium Medium Recovered Costs Universal 3 Asset Management Aggregation of metering endpoints to a common asset (e.g., secondary transformers) Medium to high depending on data utilization Medium Avoided Capital Costs Universal High-Value Applications: Grid Analytics
- 9. CONSUMER ANALYTICS Rank Application Key Features Implementatio n Complexity Maturity Primary Value Stream Key Markets 1 Revenue Protection Ability to compare and correlate usage patterns with other similar customer profiles to detect unbilled consumption Variable, depending on level of theft sophistication Medium Cost Recovery Canada, Latin America, India 2 Load Forecasting Creating individual consumption profiles for each consumer Medium Medium Avoided Costs Germany, Australia, Japan, United States 3 Customer Segmentation Fusion of customer consumption data with secondary data sources such as housing data, demographic data, and lifestyle information Medium Medium Avoided Costs Markets with retail access (e.g.. most of Europe, Texas) High-Value Applications: Consumer Analytics
- 10. Source: GTM, SAS High-Performance Analytics for the Smart Grid Reliability is the Leading Driver
- 11. Global Market Notes & Updates
- 12. An Undeniable Inflection Point • 2/3rds of total US distributed PV deployed in the last 2.5 years alone • By 2016 there will be a new PV installation nearly every minute “If FERC does not ensure the grid is ready to integrate the growing marketplace demand for distributed solar and other distributed resources, we are going to have problems with grid reliability and overall grid costs.” – Jon Wellinghoff, August 2013
- 13. A Next-Generation Energy System “Grid Edge comprises the technologies, solutions and business models advancing the transition towards a decentralized, distributed and transactive electric grid.” –GTM Research
- 14. Grid Edge: A Complex, Exciting Road Ahead
- 15. The Grid Edge Executive Council
Editor's Notes
- #7: AMI bit slower growth but a larger overall market.Analytics is growing faster but a smaller overall market.
- #11: GTM Research recently conducted a survey of top utility executives examining investment drivers in analytics. What we found is that improving the reliability, quality and efficiency of the distribution networks is paramount for executives currently.
- #12: There are a few key trends to note in. In North America, we’re expecting to surpass 58 million meters by the end of the year. In the U.S. specifically, most large investor-owned utilities have already deployed, are in the process of deploying, or are awaiting regulatory approval with the notable exception of Con Edison in the State of New York. Con Edison is an interesting example of a utility which received the maximum stimulus funding but choose to allocate the funding to distribution upgrades. In Canada, the province of Ontario has deployed rough 4.5 million smart meters and under the Ontario Green Energy Act via more than 90 independent distribution companies. Looking to the West Coast of Canada, BC Hydro and Fortis BC are both nearing completion.In Europe, the story is a bit more interesting. Under the 20-20-20 initiatives, EU members states were required to determine the cost-effectiveness on an individual basis while other member states like Italy moved forward with their own deployments. The most recent news out of Europe has been the announcement of “preferred” vendors in the U.K. as well as Germany’s decision to pursue a roll out on a case by case basis. Germany’s market is complicated due to inherent fragmentation created by being served by over 500 DSOs. In addition, ERDF, the distribution arm of France received approval by the French Prime Minister to mover forward with a staged deployment of 3.5 million meters which will eventually expand into 35million meters. In Latin America, in 2012, the Brazilian regulator ruled that it would not be mandatory to deploy smart meters – outside of new customers. In addition, the regulator ruled that the distributors would bear the costs of furnishing a basic time of use meter.The biggest news out of APAC was TEPCO’s announcement that they had selected Landis+Gyr to provide a combination of cellular, power line carrier, and RF mesh to be deployed to 27 million customers over 10 years. In addition, the deployment will include Landis+Gyr’s meter data management system which it acquired through Ecologic Analytics in 2011. Just a few notes on China – State Grid, China’s national power company stated that it expects to install 300 million meters by 2020. We tend to think these estimates are pretty optimistic. In addition, the tender process is incredibly fragmented and many contracts have been awarded to domestic vendors.