The Technological Singularity - Prepare for the Disruption of Human Intelligence
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The document discusses the concept of the singularity, predicting that within thirty years, technology will evolve to create superhuman intelligence, potentially ending the human era. It explores the stages of AI development, the implications of artificial superintelligence, and the debate regarding its benefits or risks to humanity. The author argues for the need for more awareness and discussion about these impending changes and their impact on society.
The Technological Singularity - Prepare for the Disruption of Human Intelligence
- 1. Singularity Prepare for the disruption of human intelligence #execfintech, March 8th 2016
- 2. manuel koelman dutch entrepreneur | living in cologne | founded several companies | chairman of pirate summit | corporate innovation | agile enterprise | startup dna | practical philosopher | startup mentor | angel investor | father of two | interested in machine intelligence | cheese addicted
- 3. Nobody has a f%$king clue about what is going to happen. Me neither.
- 4. Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. - Vernor Vinge (1993)
- 5. The Singularity A future point in time when technology will rapidly improve itself to surpass human intelligence, changing human life as we know it. =
- 6. Here is the main thinking about AI...
- 7. 1. We create AI
- 8. 2. The AI wakes up
- 9. 3. The AI makes itself smarter
- 10. 4. The AI makes itself MUCH MUCH smarter
- 11. 5. The AI takes over Friendly Unfriendly
- 12. And there is not much we can do about it. It’s inevitable.The end.
- 13. Where does this thinking come from?
- 14. The law of accelerating returns Technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view.
- 16. Look again!
- 17. Today
- 18. Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI) Also referred to as Weak AI. AI that specializes in one area e.g. play chess extremely well. Cannot do anything else. Already exists. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) Also referred to as Strong or Human-Level AI. Refers to a computer that is as smart as a human across the board i.e. a machine that can perform any intellectual task that a human being can. Doesn’t exist (yet). Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) Leading AI thinker Nick Bostrom defines superintelligence as “an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills.” Levels of AI
- 19. Experts predict that ASI1 ● will most probably happen ● will probably happen in the 21st century ● will make a huge impact when it happens ASI = Artificial Super Intelligence
- 20. If you ask experts we are either going to reach IMMORTALITY or we are all going to DIE!To specify: We are all going to die at pretty much the same time. And the human race will cease to exist...
- 22. “We are summoning the demon.” - Elon Musk (CEO Tesla, SpaceX)
- 23. But...
- 24. Exponential development is not accelerating infinitely Moore’s law - the most popular technology growth law - is reaching its physical limits.
- 25. The Apocalypse has been predicted many times before 1. Book of revelation (1st century AD) 2. Year 1.000 3. Nostradamus (16th Century) 4. Nuclear holocaust (1950s-80s) 5. Year 2.000 6. End of Mayan calendar (2012)
- 26. 1. The medieval clock can keep time 2. Light bulbs illuminate the dark 3. Airplanes can fly 4. ... Super-human “intelligence”1 has been built by humans for ages 1 The examples on the right are not exactly examples of “intelligence”. What is intelligence anyway? The point is to illustrate that humans in the past have created things that exceed human capabilities.
- 27. A.I. is still far away from the efficiency and capability of the human brain 1. IBM’s Watson of 2013 consumes 85,000 Watts compared with the human brain’s 20 Watts. 2. The brain is an analog device, not digital. 3. More computing power does not mean more intelligence. 4. Memory is not storage. 5. What is not (yet) possible: An “intelligent” machine with only limited knowledge of a domain. 6. ...
- 28. Machines can process a nearly limitless amount of data, however 1. Human minds are - for the foreseeable future - better than machines at Improvisation + Imagination = Creative improvisation 2. Human minds can be “irrational” 3. Machines don’t have common sense 4. Can a machine be self-aware? Really? Human beings ≠ Machines
- 29. “AI has by now succeeded in doing essentially everything that requires ‘thinking’ but has failed to do most of what people and animals do ‘without thinking’” - Donald Knuth, Computer Scientist
- 30. My current opinion1 1. Machines ≠ human beings - they won’t surpass “human” intelligence anytime soon (i.e. the next 50 years) 2. However, the Singularity is inevitable and machines will in many ways surpass human capacity very soon (a lot of people will loose their current jobs) 3. We are already today dependant on machines - this dependence will increase drastically 4. Eventually we will see a fusion of human beings and machines (best of both worlds) 5. The scary (and for some maybe exciting) part might be that machines will not only become more like humans but humans will become more like machines 1 My opinion on this will most likely change in the next months/years.
- 31. Singularity is going to happen. But the outcome is not inevitable. It’s up to us.
- 32. The Singularity could end up being the best thing that ever happened to the human race. Or the worst.
- 33. The Singularity will - in any case – have a huge impact on our society and humanity as a whole. We should have more awareness and debate about it.
- 34. Let’s discuss. Please feel free to connect: @manuelkoelman LinkedIn Leanentrepreneur.com PirateSummit.com