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- 6. Time Series Analysis of Discourse This volume serves as a comprehensive introduction to time series analysis (TSA), used commonly in financial and engineering sciences, to demonstrate its potential to complement qualitative approaches in discourse analysis research. The book begins by discussing how time has previously been conceptualized in the literature, drawing on studies from variationist sociolinguistics, corpus linguistics and crit- ical discourse analysis. The volume then segues into a discussion of how TSA is applied in other contexts in which observed values are expected to be dependent on earlier values, such as stock markets and sales figures, and introduces a range of discourse-specific contexts to show how the technique might be extended to analyze trends or shed further light on relevant themes in discourse over time. Each succes- sive chapter features a different discourse context as a case study, from psychotherapy sessions to university lectures and news articles and looks at how studying different variables over time in each context – metaphors, involvement markers, and keywords, respectively – can contribute to a greater understanding of both present and future dis- course activity in these settings. Taken together, this book highlights the value of TSA as a complementary approach to meaning-based analysis in discourse, making this ideal reading for graduate students and scholars in discourse analysis looking to employ quantitative methods in their research practice. Dennis Tay is an Associate Professor in the Department of English, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University. His research interests include cognitive linguistics, discourse analysis, mental healthcare communi- cation and the statistical modeling of discourse.
- 7. Routledge Studies in Linguistics 12 Relational Semantics and the Anatomy of Abstraction Tamar Sovran 13 Language Contact and the Origins of the Germanic Languages Peter Schrijver 14 Metonymy and Language A New Theory of Linguistic Processing Charles Denroche 15 A Forensic Linguistic Approach to Legal Disclosures ERISA Cash Balance Conversion Cases and the Contextual Dynamics of Deception James F. Stratman 16 Conceptual Conflicts in Metaphors and Figurative Language Michele Prandi 17 The Language of Pop Culture Edited by Valentin Werner 18 Perspectives from Systemic Functional Linguistics Edited by Akila Sellami-Baklouti and Lise Fontaine 19 Time Series Analysis of Discourse Method and Case Studies Dennis Tay For more information about this series, please visit: https://www. routledge.com/Routledge-Studies-in-Linguistics/book-series/SE0719
- 8. Time Series Analysis of Discourse Method and Case Studies Dennis Tay
- 9. First published 2019 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2019 Taylor & Francis The right of Dennis Tay to be identified as author of this work has been asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record has been requested for this book ISBN: 978-1-138-58463-1 (hbk) ISBN: 978-0-429-50588-1 (ebk) Typeset in Times New Roman by codeMantra
- 10. 1 Time in discourse analysis 1 2 The basic logic and process of TSA 18 3 Case study 1: metaphor in psychotherapy sessions 48 4 Case study 2: non-informational language in university lectures 70 5 Case study 3: thematic keywords in newspaper discourse 93 6 Summary, limitations and future directions 108 Index 121 Contents
- 12. What is discourse analysis? Language is often researched at two broad levels. The first level lies “within the sentence” and describes the more stable rules and properties of a language such as its speech sounds, word meanings and grammar. The second level is about how people use language to achieve various objectives in everyday life. Thestudyof pragmatics,for example,consid- ers how usage contexts contribute to meaning. Another closely related area is the study of discourse. In general, discourse research goes “be- yond the sentence” to examine the dynamic ways in which language in- fluences and gets influenced by various aspects of social life. There are many examples of basic linguistic “building tasks” (Gee, 2005) to cre- ate everyday social reality such as the enactment of activities, construc- tion of identities and establishment of connections between people and objects. They are manifest in a diverse range of contemporary settings from newspaper articles to social media, and doctor–patient communi- cation to university lectures. The forms and structures of discourse that enable and are shaped by these tasks are likewise diverse. A cursory list of widely studied examples includes anaphora, coherence, speech acts, turn-taking, topics, syntactic structures, politeness, metaphor, rhetoric and so on (Van Dijk, 2011). Some discourse analysts limit themselves to documenting and describing these phenomena and their functions, while others take a more critical approach to explore how language is linked to wider sociopolitical issues like sexism, racism and environ- mentalism. The advent of new media technologies that enable multiple and often simultaneous modes of meaning making such as images, film and music has also significantly expanded the scope and complexity of discourse research (Bateman, 2014; O’Halloran, 2011). Painting an integrated picture of the multiple branching pathways of discourse re- search has itself proven to be a challenging endeavor ( Johnstone, 2008; Van Dijk, 2011; Wetherell, Taylor, & Yates, 2001). 1 Time in discourse analysis
- 13. 2 Time in discourse analysis Nevertheless, we can venture to say with some risk of oversimplifica- tion that the basic objective of much of discourse research is to under- stand the relationship between two conceptually independent things. One of these things is the observed forms, structures and functions of discourse, and the other is the social context of their occurrence. An important aspect of this relationship is how discourse and soci- ety change with the passage of time. Consider how social processes evolve over different time scales. Attitudes toward a conversational partner can shift in a matter of seconds or less, while the formation and shaping of political ideologies often take decades and even cen- turies. The big question frequently asked by discourse analysts is how these changes are mirrored in corresponding shifts in language use, or how language and discourse change might itself be responsible for triggering social change. Therefore, there has always been at least a trace of a chronological or diachronic perspective across the numer- ous varieties of discourse analysis. I begin by giving a brief overview of this chronological perspective in three major discourse-related re- search approaches – variationist sociolinguistics, corpus-assisted dis- course studies and critical discourse analysis (CDA). Research falling under these approaches overlaps in terms of foci and methodologies, and collectively illustrates the many advances that have been made in our attempt to understand discourse across time. Besides pointing out these advances, the more important present purpose is to highlight several limitations and issues with this body of work. The discussion eventually leads to the introduction of the subject matter of this book, the complementary methodology of time series analysis (TSA). Time in variationist sociolinguistics The study of relationships between language, discourse, culture and society is known as sociolinguistics. One of its branches, “variationist sociolinguistics”, focuses on how language and discourse vary along social variables that characterize speakers such as age, gender, social class and time periods. The key idea is that language varies due to so- cial conditioning and does so in surprisingly systematic ways. These patterns of variation are traditionally analyzed in terms of quantita- tive relationships between linguistic and social variables (Labov, 1963, 1969, 1972). The classic example is William Labov’s comprehensive description of how pronunciation varied with one’s social standing in New York City in the 1960s. In a series of pioneering studies, Labov demonstrated that the frequency of variable final or preconsonantal /r/ correlated positively with the level of social prestige implicitly asserted
- 14. Time in discourse analysis 3 by speakers. Gradually, qualitative analyses of related issues, such as attitudes and perceptions, and strategic management of these lan- guage and discourse differences also became significant (Eckert, 2000; Milroy, 1980). Penelope Eckert’s (2000) exemplary ethnographic study of “jocks” and “burnouts” in a high school setting showed that speak- ers actively make use of these differences to construct fluid social iden- tities and manage relationships. Time becomes an explicit factor in sociolinguistics research when we consider things like the age of speakers, or significant historical events, as socially conditioned sources of language variation and change. The variation can sometimes be rather subtle and puzzling. For exam- ple, it seems difficult to offer a plausible explanation for why young Canadians are more likely to say it’s so cold today, while middle-aged speakers prefer it’s really cold (Tagliamonte, 2012). Likewise, for some reason, adolescents in Glasgow use significantly less “discourse lubri- cants” like you know and I mean than adults ( Macaulay, 2005). The causes and repercussions of language change are at other times far more drastic and spun into a web of complex sociopolitical develop- ments. An example is the nationwide reform of the writing system in China in the mid-20th century, which is an inextricable part of broader political reform (Ping, 1999). The significance of time in variationist sociolinguistics is also underlined at the fundamental level of methodology. A clear example is the long-standing debate between the “real-time” and “apparent- time” approaches to studying language variation and change. Return- ing to the examples above, to confirm if certain language preferences have changed across generations in Canada and Glasgow, a plausible method would be to collect data across actual historical time peri- ods and compare speakers of similar age groups. If we call this the “real-time” approach, variationist sociolinguists have proposed an intriguing alternative known as the “apparent-time” approach. This means to compare language patterns between different age groups at a common moment in time. The underlying assumption is that linguistic habits become stable after a certain age. Old people are still speaking in the same ways as when they were young, and thus differences with young people today suggest a genuine change across generations. The apparent-time approach enjoys advantages such as easier data collection and sampling control. However, although there is often a good match with real-time data, it has been criticized for underesti- mating “age-graded changes”, i.e. changes that happen across certain phases in life and are repeated in subsequent generations (Boberg, 2004; Sankoff & Blondeau, 2007). Our present concern is not with the
- 15. 4 Time in discourse analysis relative merits of either approach (see Cukor-Avila & Bailey, 2013 for a comprehensive review), but rather to observe two points stemming from the discussion. The first is that time is of primary interest in so- ciolinguistic studies of language and discourse. The variable of time is often explicitly factored into research designs, even generating its own strand of methodological debate. However, this interest is notice- ably inclined toward the gradual evolution of language and discourse over a long period, often a generation of speakers or more. Although relatively spontaneous contexts like face-to-face interaction are also a key focus for researchers who have come to identify themselves as “interactionist sociolinguists” (Gumperz, 1982), the question of how language and discourse features shift in such compressed time frames has not been asked to the same extent. In fact, if we were to compare gradual change patterns across generations with the more dynamic shifts characteristic of spontaneous interaction, the latter is likely to throw up intricacies that require a different method of analysis. Time in corpus-assisted discourse studies Corpus linguistics has undergone rapid developments in recent decades to establish itself as a key approach to the study of language and discourse. Its main feature is the computer-aided processing and analysis of textual data on ever-growing scales (Wiedemann, 2013), which allows researchers toinfergeneralpatternsoflanguageuse(Gray&Biber,2011)whilenotsac- rificing attention to multiple specific instances. The particular relevance of corpus linguistic techniques to discourse analysis is highlighted by researchers who refer to their work as “corpus-assisted discourse stud- ies”. This is defined as “the investigation and comparison of features of particular discourse types, integrating into the analysis, where appropri- ate, techniques and tools within corpus linguistics” ( Partington, 2010:88). From this perspective, corpus linguistics can be seen as a methodological toolkit rather than a specific field of inquiry (Baker, 2006; McEnery & Hardie, 2012). The most common techniques that can support discourse research include keyword analysis, which uncovers relative over/underuse of specific words in a corpus, and concordance analysis, which highlights phenomena of interest as they are exactly used in context. Corpus tech- niques have been applied to descriptive and comparative studies of all kindsofthingslikegrammar(Leech,Hundt,Mair,&Smith,2009), humor (Holmes & Marra, 2002) and figurative language ( Stefanowitsch & Gries, 2006), and in domains ranging from education (Biber, 2006) to media (Bednarek, 2006) and healthcare (Semino, Demjén, Hardie, Payne, & Rayson, 2018), just to name a few.
- 16. Time in discourse analysis 5 The time factor is likewise a primary focus of what has come to be known as “diachronic corpus-based studies”. Many widely used corpora such as the Helsinki Diachronic Corpus of English Texts and ARCHER (A Representative Corpus of Historical English Reg- isters) are in fact built specifically to study language and discourse change. Like-minded researchers working with smaller self-built cor- pora follow the similar approach of segmenting their datasets into sub- corpora each representing a particular time interval (Bamford, Cavalieri, & Diani, 2013). These intervals can range from months to years to decades depending on the context at hand. A common way to study change is to identify language and discourse features of interest, tabulate their frequencies within each sub-corpus and compare these frequencies between sub-corpora for evidence of sig- nificant differences. Partly due to the nature of most corpus software programs that allow quick identification and cross-corpora com- parison of discrete lexical units, the most widely used procedure to determine change is the log-likelihood significance test (see Oakes, 1998). This essentially measures the degree of association between two categorical variables. In the case of diachronic corpus studies, one variable is the language or discourse feature X under investi- gation, which is defined by the two categories X and non-X. That is to say, every lexical unit in the corpus is either X or not. The other variable is time, arbitrarily defined by the time intervals underlying the sub-corpora, for example decade A and decade B. The resulting log-likelihood or LL score suggests whether the difference in occur- rence of X versus non-X across the two time periods is more likely an outcome of chance (LL < 3.84) or genuine change (LL ≥ 3.84 at the standard significance level of 0.05). Although it is technically possible to extend both the language/discourse and time variable to more than two categories to study change over multiple periods, most diachronic corpus-based studies appear to be limited to inves- tigating just two successive periods at once. Another noteworthy but seldom mentioned point is that since time is defined as a categorical variable, its constituting periods must fulfill the assumption of be- ing independent categories. The assumption of independence is of- ten explained in statistics textbooks as meaning that each data unit should only fall under one category per variable. In most cases, this is unproblematic because a language or discourse unit can neither be both X and non-X, nor occur at two time periods at once. However, strict independence also requires that “no case carries more than random information about any other case” (von Eye & Mun, 2013:9). This means that a certain unit should not exert more than random
- 17. 6 Time in discourse analysis influence on how another unit is categorized, across either variable. If we consider the language/discourse variable, there is some doubt over whether this is a realistic assumption to make given the ecolog- ical or “intertextual” nature of many discourse contexts (Kilgarriff, 2001). Similarly, considering the time variable, we can think of cases where the frequency of occurrence at time A is likely to influence the corresponding frequency at time B in some way. The presence of internal relationships within temporally ordered observations is gen- erally known as autocorrelation, a statistical phenomenon seldom discussed in language research (Koplenig, 2017). We shall discuss au- tocorrelation and its implications in much more detail, but for now it is adequate to acknowledge its importance when studying the time factor in discourse. Time in critical discourse analysis The relationship between discourse phenomena and the social world is perhaps most explicitly theorized by exponents of the paradigm known as critical discourse analysis (CDA). This relationship is de- scribed as dialectical: on the one hand, (these) situational, institutional, and social con- texts shape and affect discourse, on the other hand discourses influence social and political reality. In other words, discourse constitutes social practice and is at the same time constituted by it. (van Leeuwen & Wodak, 1999:92) At first glance, the above characterization sounds just like our gen- eral understanding of discourse and social processes as two things informing each other. What makes CDA unique and “critical” is its explicit focus on the notions of ideology and power – how they shape language, and how language in turn (re)produces dominant ideolo- gies and power relations in everyday social life (Fairclough, 2013). Therefore, while a sociolinguist may simply be interested in describing gender differences in the use of discourse features, CDA practition- ers go further to critically consider how these differences reveal or even perpetuate the social construction of gender. Gee (2005:26) suc- cinctly describes this type of perspective as assuming that language use always comes with “other stuff”. CDA is thus best conceived as a general “approach, position, or stance” (Van Dijk, 1995:17) that makes use of different research methodologies including those in soci- olinguistics and corpus lin guistics (Baker, Gabrielatos, Khosravinik,
- 18. Time in discourse analysis 7 Mcenery, & Wodak, 2008). Rather than outlining a general method- ological approach, the strongest thread of consistency within CDA research is its emancipatory outlook and advocacy for social change. Despite the general clarity of this conceptual thrust, the precise corre- spondences between discourse and social phenomena are often painted with broad and varied strokes by different CDA practitioners. This is ap- parent from Wodak and Meyer’s (2009:22) conceptual summary of dif- ferent ways of doing CDA. The authors situate various CDA approaches along two perpendicular clines called linguistic operationalization and level of social aggregation. The first cline spans from “broad” to “de- tailed”, while the second has “agency” and “structure” as its two ends. The socio-cognitive approach (Van Dijk, 2009), for instance, considers communicative elements in the broadest contextually defined sense and their relationship with individual cognitions of social reality. It is there- foreplacedatthe“broad”and“agency”endsoftheclines.Incontrast,the discourse-historical approach (Reisigl & Wodak, 2001) examines specific linguistic realizations and their “decisive role on the genesis, production, and construction of certain social conditions” (van Leeuwen & Wodak, 1999:92). It therefore occupies a place at the “detailed” and “structure” ends. A pioneering study under this approach examined linguistic man- ifestations of racial prejudice in various genres of public discourse in the 1986 Austrian presidential campaign. However, the linguistic and discourse data were not only analyzed on their own terms, but also as ostensible evocations of Austria’s complex anti-Semitic political history (Wodak et al., 1990). Regardless of their positions on the conceptual clines, it is this avowed emphasis on evolving social situations, institu- tions and structures as backdrops of discourse that brings the tempo- ral dimension into focus for different CDA approaches. Reisigl (2017:53) outlines three ways in which CDA practitioners can relate discourse to history. Two of these are characteristically broad and open to multiple interpretations – taking a “discourse fragment” as a starting point and reconstructing its prehistory by relating the present to the past, as was the case with the Austrian example, and comparing how different social actors semiotically represent the past “with respect to claims of truth, normative rightness and truthfulness”. The third way is of special pres- ent interest because it simultaneously alludes to issues with time-based CDA analyses, and the complementary approach to be introduced in this book. In full, it suggests that A diachronic series or sequence of thematically or/and functionally connected discourse fragments or utterances is taken as a starting point, and their historical interrelationships are reconstructed
- 19. Exploring the Variety of Random Documents with Different Content
- 20. resistance to their will, and no forfeiture of their right to govern? I said this was a figure of rhetoric, employed by his Lordship ad captandum vulgus. I believe so still, but I believe he meant it also ad captandum regem, and that he thought, by throwing out this idea, that he was not for acknowledging our independence, the King, who at that time was distressed for a Minister able in conducting a war, would call him into the Ministry. I ever lamented this black spot in a very bright character. I do not remember anything in his Lordship's conduct, which seemed to me so suspicious to have proceeded from a perverted heart as this flight. Allowance, however, ought to be made; perhaps he was misunderstood, and would have explained himself fairly if he had lived. I have not seen the pamphlet entitled Facts, nor that by Lloyd, nor the Examen. I should be glad to see all of them. I find a difficulty in getting pamphlets from England, but I shall have a channel to obtain them by and by. I went to Mr Grant's as soon as I received yours of the 8th. Mr Grant the father was out, and no other in the house knew anything of your letter, or maps, or other things. I will speak to the father the first opportunity. Mr Lee is gone to L'Orient. What think you of luck? Had any gambler ever so much as Rodney. One of our tories in Boston, or half way whigs, told me once, God loves that little island of Old England, and the people that live upon it. I suppose he would say now, God loves Rodney. I do not draw the same conclusion from the successes, that the island or the hero have had. Who can be persuaded to believe, that he loves so degenerate and profligate a race? I think it more probable, that heaven has permitted this series of good fortune to attend the wicked, that the righteous Americans may reflect in time, and place their confidence in their own patience, fortitude, perseverance, political wisdom, and military talents, under the protection and blessing of his providence. There are those who believe, that if France and Spain had not interposed, America would have been crushed. There are in other parts of Europe, I am told, a greater number who believe, that if it
- 21. had not been for the interposition of France and Spain, American independence would have been acknowledged by Great Britain a year or two ago. I believe neither the one nor the other. I know the deep roots of American independence on one side of the water, and I know the deep roots of the aversion to it on the other. If it was rational to suppose, that the English should succeed in their design, and endeavor to destroy the fleets and naval power of France and Spain, which they are determined to do if they can, what would be the consequence? There are long lists of French and Spanish ships of the line yet to be destroyed, which would cost the English several campaigns and a long roll of millions, and after this they may send sixty thousand men to America, if they can get them, and what then? Why, the glory of baffling, exhausting, beating, and taking them, will finally be that of the American yeomanry, whose numbers have increased every year since this war began, as I learnt with certainty in my late visit home, and will increase every year, in spite of all the art, malice, skill, valor, and activity of the English and all their allies. I hope, however, that the capricious goddess will bestow some of her favors upon France and Spain, and a very few of them would do the work. If Rodney's fortune should convince Spain, that she is attacking the bull by the horns, and France and Spain, that the true system for conducting this war, is by keeping just force enough in the Channel to protect their coasts and their trade, and by sending all the rest of their ships into the American seas, it will be the best fortune for the allies they ever had. I long to learn Mr Jay's success at Madrid, and Mr Laurens' arrival in Holland, where I will go to see him some time in the summer or autumn. I have the honor to be, &c. JOHN ADAMS.
- 22. TO THE PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS. Paris, March 14th, 1780. Sir, By a letter from London of the 3d of this month, received since my former of this day's date, I learn that the friends of the Ministry were in hopes every hour to hear that Clinton, who embarked seven thousand effective men, (though they are said to be ten) in the latter end of December, is in possession of Charleston. The detachment consisted of the light infantry and grenadiers of the seventh, twentythird, thirtythird, fortysecond, sixtythird, and sixtyfourth British regiments, a legion of horse, yagers, four battalions of Hessian grenadiers; the New York volunteers, Ferguson's corps; one Hessian regiment, and a detachment of the seventyfirst British regiment. Many are of opinion that a part of this army was intended for the Windward Islands, and that they embarked and sailed the 26th of December, and was much hurt by a storm after sailing. Two thousand, under Lord Cornwallis, were said to be intended for the Chesapeake, to burn two or three men of war in James river, and to serve as a division to the other five, going against Charleston. The friends of the Administration are not in spirits about the picture of affairs in America and the West Indies. They fear the French will have a superiority there, from whence some late accounts are arrived of vast sickness and disorder on board the English ships. The naval war will, to appearance, be removed for the next summer to that quarter. Rodney was to sail with four ships only to the West Indies; and Walsingham will not take more than that number as a convoy to about one hundred West Indiamen, which were to sail about the 20th of this month, and more ships of war would probably conduct this fleet off the land, and it was probable in the New York and Quebec trade about fifty vessels more would sail about the same time. That there was no talk of any troops or ships going to
- 23. New York or Quebec. That there was a rumor that Wallace would have a small squadron, and carry four or five thousand men out, but this was not believed. That the Ministry had been hard pressed in several parliamentary questions lately; that their party was losing ground daily; that the county petitions for reformation were a heavy weight upon them; that it was likely there would be serious disturbances, if reforms do not take place; that the committees for each county have already appointed three deputies to meet and act for the whole, which is the beginning of a Congress, and will probably be soon called by that name; that it was hard to determine whether these movements at home, or the proceedings in Ireland, chagrin the Ministry most; that the sovereignty of England over Ireland will not be of many month's duration; that the armed associations in the latter amount to sixtyfour thousand men, who seem determined to free themselves from every restriction that has been laid on them; that their Parliament is about putting an end to all appeals to England; to render the judges independent of the crown, they at present holding their offices durante bene placito, and not quamdiu se bene gesserunt, as in England; to have a habeas corpus act; to repeal Poyning's law, which enacts that all bills shall originate in the council and not in the commons; to confine the new supplies to the appointment of new duties only; to give bounties on their own manufactures, and to have a mutiny bill, which last goes immediately to the grand point of jurisdiction. That, however, notwithstanding all the present appearances against Great Britain, and the certainty of America's succeeding to her wish, there are not among even those, who are called patriots in Parliament, many who possess directly a wish for American independence; that Lords Camden, Effingham, Coventry, and the Bishop of St Asaph are clearly and distinctly for it; Sir G. Saville, and but a few others in the House of Commons; that the rest of the patriots are for sovereignty; America to give up the French alliance, make up a federal alliance with England, by which no doubt they mean an alliance offensive and defensive, &c.
- 24. It is surely unnecessary for me to make any observations upon the absurdity of these provisos, so injurious to the honor of our country, and so destructive of her most essential rights and interests. By a letter of the 7th, a vessel with two hundred Hessians or Yagers on board has arrived at St Ives, in Cornwall. She sailed with the expedition from New York, the 26th of December, and a few days after received much damage in a storm, which it is thought separated and dispersed the fleet. This gives us great spirits and sanguine hopes for Charleston. I have the honor to enclose several newspapers, and, with much respect, to be, &c. JOHN ADAMS.
- 25. TO THE PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS. Paris, March, 14th, 1780. Sir, I have taken some pains to inform myself what number of regular troops the enemy have in the three kingdoms, because we may form some judgment from this, whether they will be able to send any, and what reinforcements to North America or the West Indies. I am assured, that they have not more than four thousand regular troops in Ireland, and these chiefly horse. It is not to be expected then, I think, that they can spare any of these. There is too much danger even of popular commotions in England, Scotland, and Ireland, to spare many of these, if they were perfectly safe, or thought themselves so from French and Spanish invasions. I have, however, written to obtain more exact and authentic information, which I will not fail to transmit as early as possible. I have received an account at length, both by the Gazette Extraordinary, and by letter from London, that Admiral Digby is returned with the fleet and Spanish prizes from Gibraltar, and brought in with him the Protée, a French sixtyfour gun ship, and three small store ships, part of a fleet bound from L'Orient to the East Indies. The sixtyfour gun ship had about sixtythree thousand pounds in cash on board. This fleet was unlucky enough to fall in with Digby on the 23d of February. Rodney sailed from Gibraltar on the 14th, and parted with Digby on the 18th, taking only four ships of the line with him to the West Indies. A like number will probably go under Walsingham about the 20th or 25th of this month, with the fleet to the West Indies. It is said in letters from London, that by every appearance, there are no more troops going to North America, and that it looks as if the Ministry mean not to continue the American war, but to let it dwindle and die away. If this should be
- 26. the case, it is to be hoped that the Americans and their allies will not let it dwindle, but put it to death at a blow. The Marquis de Lafayette, and his brother the Viscount de Noailles, a young noble officer, who is worthy of his family, and of the relation he bears to the Marquis, who I hope will be the bearer of this letter, will be able to say more upon this head. At present the King and his General are the only persons, who ought to know the secret. I have the honor to be, &c. JOHN ADAMS. TO JAMES LOVELL. Paris, March 16th, 1780. Dear Sir, I have received, since my arrival here, your favor of the 16th of November, 1779. I shall take proper notice of your remarks upon the 13th and 19th articles of the treaty. They are both of them of importance, and, as to the last, I wish for an instruction upon it, because there is no doubt to be made, that whenever a serious negotiation shall be commenced, great pains will be taken for the banished, although little attention is paid to them now. I learned yesterday, that they have received no payment of their pensions these eighteen months. The delay is colored with a pretence of waiting for some funds for Quebec, which have been stopped by the interruption of that trade. They are still bitter, as I am told, and are firmly persuaded, that America cannot hold out six months longer.
- 27. You assure me, that I shall not be without the orders and credit, which I mentioned in a letter of mine. I thank you for this assurance, which is conceived in such strong terms, that one would think you did not expect any opposition to it; at least, an effectual opposition. I wish there may not be, but I am not without conjectures, I will not call them suspicions, upon this head. Denying them, however, would be virtually recalling me and Mr Dana, and in a manner the most humiliating and disgraceful. Indeed, I do not know how we should get away from our creditors. You know what sort of minds cannot bear a brother near the throne; and so fair, so just, so economical a method, would not escape minds of so much penetration, as a refusal to lend money without orders. I am not sure, however, that the measure would be hazarded in the present circumstances, by persons by whom I have been treated politely enough since my return. I should be glad to know what the Board of Treasury have done with my accounts; whether they have passed upon them; or whether there are any objections to them, and what they are. I do not know but I was indiscreet in sending all my original vouchers, because, if any of them should be lost, I might be puzzled to explain some things. However, I know by a letter from Mr Gerry, that they were received, and I presume they will be preserved. I wish to know your private opinion, whether Congress will continue Mr Dana and me here, at so much expense, with so little prospect of having anything to do for a long time; an uncertain time, however; or, whether they will revoke our powers, and recall us; or what they will do with us. A situation so idle and inactive is not agreeable to my genius; yet I can submit to it as well as any man, if it be thought necessary for the public good. I will do all the service I can, by transmitting intelligence, and in every other way. You must have observed, that in all my public letters, and, indeed, in a great measure in my private ones, I have cautiously avoided giving accounts of the state of our affairs in France. I had many reasons for this caution. In general, I was sure it would do no good, and I
- 28. doubted the propriety of stating facts, and remarking upon characters, without giving notice of it to the persons concerned, and transmitting the evidence. There is no end of conceiving jealousies; but, I am sure, that officers of government, especially foreign Ministers, ought not to attack and accuse one another upon jealousies, nor without full proof; nor then, without notifying the party to answer for himself. Thus much let me say, however, that the present plan of having a distinct Minister in Spain, another in Holland, and another to treat with Great Britain, and having Secretaries independent of Ministers, is a good one. I pray you to stand by it with the utmost firmness, if it should be attacked or undermined. If you revoke the powers of a separate Minister to treat with the King of Great Britain, you ought to revoke the former powers of treating with all the Courts of Europe, which were given to the Commissioners at Passy; for, under these, authority will be claimed of treating with the English, if my powers are revoked. The powers of treating with all other Courts ought to be separated from the mission. Your friend, &c. JOHN ADAMS. TO THE PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS. Paris, March 18th, 1780. Sir, We have this moment the news of the arrival of the convoy from St Domingo, with sixty sail of merchant vessels, which is a great event for this country.
- 29. It is also reported, that ten sail of Spanish ships of the line, with ten battalions of land forces have sailed, and their destination is supposed to be North America. The armament preparing at Brest, is thus described in one of the public papers. The Count du Chaffault de Besné, Lieutenant General of the naval forces in France, has taken leave of the King, being presented to his Majesty by M. de Sartine. The report runs, that orders have been sent on the 29th of February, for the officers who are at Paris to join their regiments upon the coasts by the 15th of March, and that eight regiments are to embark under the Count de Rochambeau. These regiments are that of Anhalt, whereof the Marquis de Bergen is Colonel in second; Auvergne, Colonel Commandant, the Viscount de Lavel; Bourbonnois, Colonel Commandant, the Marquis de Laval, and in second, the Viscount de Rochambeau; Neustrie, Colonel Commandant, the Count de Guibert, and in second, the Viscount le Veneur; Romergne, Colonel Commandant, the Viscount de Custine, and in second, the Marquis du Ludec; Royal Corse, Colonel Commandant, the Marquis du Luc, and in second, the Count of Pontevez; Royal Deux Ponts, Colonel Commandant, the Count aux Ponts; Saintongé, Colonel Commandant, the Viscount de Beranger, and in second, the Marquis de Themines. It is asserted, that there will be added a detachment of artillery, and that the Baron de Viomenil, the Count de Chastellux, and the Count de Witgenstein will embark with these troops, and that the Duc de Lazun will have the command of a body of twelve hundred volunteers, and be joined to the armament under the Count de Rochambeau. All these troops, as it is believed, will embark at Brest, and go out under the convoy of the Count du Chaffault de Besné. They add, that he will have more than thirtyseven ships of the line under his command, destined for an expedition, whereof the genuine object is yet unknown. Many other regiments have also orders to march down nearer to those upon the seacoast, and there are many vessels taken upon freight for the service of the King, in
- 30. the different ports of the kingdom. The freight at Havre is thirty livres a ton, on condition that the owner furnish his vessel for twelve months. They say the Prince de Condé will go and command upon the coast of Brittany with the Count de Vaux. By a letter I just now received from Holland, I am told that the grand business is done between the northern powers on a footing very convenient for Holland, as it must compel the English to cease interrupting the trade of the neutral powers. This would be more beneficial to France and Spain than to Holland, by facilitating the acquisition of ship timber, hemp, and all other things for the supply of their arsenals of the marine. A principal branch of the British policy has ever been, to prevent the growth of the navies of their enemies, by intercepting their supplies. What gives further countenance to this letter, and the reports to the same purpose, which have been sometime circulated, is an article in the Mercure de France, enclosed. They talk of an alliance between Sweden, Denmark, Russia, Prussia, and the United Province, for maintaining the honor of the flags of these powers. Congress will see also another paragraph from London, which favors this idea. That the Baron de Nolker, Envoy Extraordinary from Sweden, had declared that if the convoy of his nation was not released forthwith, with an indemnification for expenses and losses, he had orders to quit the Court of London in twenty four hours. Some other paragraphs seem to show the Dutch in earnest about equipping a respectable naval force of fiftytwo vessels. I have the honor to be, &c. JOHN ADAMS.
- 31. TO THE PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS. Paris, March 19th, 1780. Sir, Enclosed is a paper of the 10th of March, which was accidentally omitted to be enclosed in the season of it. There are two articles of intelligence, which ought not to escape our observation, because they have relation to the armament equipping at Brest, although I do not suppose them of much consequence. The first is of a small squadron of frigates, which is said to have sailed from Portsmouth on the 28th of February, in consequence of orders sent from the Admiralty on the 22d, under the command of Captain Marshall, who is on board the Emerald, of thirtytwo guns. The others are the Hussar of thirtytwo, the Surprise of twentyeight, the Squirrel, and Heart of Oak of twenty; the sloops, the Beaver's prize of fourteen, the Wolf, and the Wasp of eight, with the cutters, the Nimble and the Griffin. It is thought, that this little squadron is gone to make a cruise on the coast of France, to hinder the transports assembled in different ports from going out, or even to destroy them, if that shall be found to be possible. There is not, however, much to be dreaded from this squadron so near the neighborhood of Brest. The other paragraph discovers the marks of more ingenuity and less truth. It is taken from the English papers, that Captain Jarvis, in the Foudroyant of eighty guns, who has been out upon a cruise, with a small division in the mouth of the Channel, has returned to Plymouth and gone to Court, to be himself the bearer to Government of despatches of great importance, from the Court of France to Congress, found on board a sloop, which on her passage to Philadelphia fell into his hands. It is asserted, that these despatches contain an ample detail of the operations concerted between the Court of Versailles and Dr Franklin, among which the most probable is, the project of attacking Halifax, which is to be made by a body of
- 32. troops from New England, and by a detachment of French troops very considerable by sea and land. This moment a letter from London of the 10th of March informs me, that a packet boat is arrived from Jamaica, which sailed the 29th of January, with accounts, that Fort Omoa is again in possession of Spain. That an English man-of-war has taken a Spanish ship-of-war, bound to South America with stores. She was pierced for sixtyfour, but earned only fiftytwo guns. The Jamaica fleet sailed on the 24th of January, convoyed slightly, with two fiftys and two frigates, about forty merchantmen in all. Nothing yet from America, but it is generally believed, that a storm has separated and dispersed Clinton's fleet, intended for the Southern expedition. I have the honor to be, &c. JOHN ADAMS. TO THE PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS. Paris, March 20th, 1780 Sir, I have at length received a parcel of English papers, which I have the honor to enclose with this to Congress. They are the General Advertiser, and the Morning Post, both of which I shall for the future be able to transmit regularly every week. Congress will see that these papers are of opposite parties, one being manifestly devoted to the Court and the Ministry, and the majority, the other to the opposition, the committees, the associations, and petitions; between both I hope Congress will be informed of the true facts.
- 33. There is the appearance of a piquancy and keenness in the temper of the opposite parties, by their writings and paragraphs in these papers, that looks like the commencement of a serious quarrel. By the violence of the manner in which such characters as Keppel, Howe, Burgoyne, Richmond, Shelburne, Rockingham, &c. are treated, it should seem, that the Ministry were exasperated to a greater degree of rancor than ever, and that they were thoroughly alarmed and determined to throw the last die. Time and the events of war will decide what will be the consequences of these heated passions. By a conversation this morning with the Viscount de Noailles, I am led to fear, that the fleet from Brest will not be able to put to sea before the 10th of April. This will be about the time the Marquis de Lafayette will arrive in America. He sailed from Rochelle the 13th of this month. I have the honor to be, &c. JOHN ADAMS. TO THE COUNT DE VERGENNES. Paris, March 21st, 1780. Sir, In the letter, which you did me the honor to write me on the 24th of February, your Excellency proposed, that the principal object of my mission should be inserted in the Gazette of France, when it should make mention of my presentation to the King and all the royal family.
- 34. In the answer to this letter, which I had the honor to write on the 25th of February, I informed your Excellency, that I should not think myself at liberty to make any publication of my powers to treat of peace, until they should have been announced in the Gazette. It was on the 7th of March, that I had the honor to be presented to the King and Royal Family, but no notice has been taken of it in the Gazette of France. Whether the omission is accidental, or whether it is owing to any alteration in your Excellency's sentiments, I am not able to determine. Your Excellency will excuse the trouble I give you on this occasion, as it arises wholly from a desire to be able at all times, to render an account to my sovereign of the motives and reasons of my own conduct. I have the honor to be, &c. JOHN ADAMS. TO WILLIAM LEE. Paris, March 21st, 1780. Dear Sir, I have just received your favor from Brussels of the 17th of this month, and I thank you for this instance of your attention to me. Considering the state of Ireland, and the spirit that seems to be rising in England, which has already attained such a height, as to baffle the Minister, and the East India Company, and to carry many votes in the House of Commons, almost to a balance with him, and even some against him, I should not be at all surprised, if terms,
- 35. such as you mention, should be offered to America; nor should I be surprised if another rumor, which was propagated at the Palais Royal this day, should prove true, that a great change is made or to be made in the Ministry, and that the Lords Shelburne and Rockingham, Burke, &c. are in. Yet I have no proper accounts of either. Whatever may be my powers or instructions, or whether I have any or not, I am very much obliged to you for your sentiments on such a proposition as a truce for America, supposing it should be made. Your arguments are of great weight, and will undoubtedly be attended to by every one, whoever he may be, who shall be called to give an opinion upon such a great question. You will not expect me at present to give, if it is proper for me even to form, any decided opinion upon it. Yet thus much I may venture to say, that having had so long an experience of the policy of our enemies, I am persuaded, from the whole of it, if they propose a truce, it will not be with an expectation or desire, that America should accept it, but merely to try one experiment more to deceive, divide, and seduce, in order to govern. You observe, that the heads of some well intentioned, though visionary Americans, run much upon a truce. I have seen and heard enough to be long since convinced, that the Americans in Europe are by no means an adequate representation of those on the other side of the water. They neither feel, nor reason like them in general. I should, therefore, upon all occasions hear their arguments with attention, weigh them with care, but be sure never to follow them, when I knew them to differ from the body of their countrymen at home. You say the Dutch are disturbed. Do you wonder at it? They have been kicked by the English, as no reasonable man would kick a dog. They have been whipped by them, as no sober postillion would whip a hackney coach horse. Can they submit to all this, upon any principle, which would not oblige them to submit, if the English were to bombard Amsterdam, or cut away their dikes?
- 36. I wish I knew the name of the principal confident and director of the Prince, whom you mention. I am very anxious to hear of the arrival of Mr Laurens, but suspect you will learn it first. Mr Dana returns his respects to you. I thank you, Sir, for your offers of service; nothing can oblige me more than to communicate to me any intelligence of the designs of our enemies, in politics or war, and their real and pretended forces by sea and land. Pray what is the foundation of the story of a quintuple alliance between Holland, Sweden, Russia, Prussia, and Denmark? I am, Sir, with great esteem, your humble servant, JOHN ADAMS. TO THE PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS. Paris, March 23d, 1780. Sir, I have the honor to enclose the English papers of the 11th, 13th, and 14th of March, the Courrier de l'Europe, and the Hague, Leyden, and Amsterdam Gazettes. We are in hourly expectation of great news from Holland, Ireland, England, Spain, and above all from America, and the West Indies. I have not had a letter from America since I left it, except one from my family of the 10th of December, and, indeed, although several vessels have arrived, I can hear of no letters or news. By the English papers Congress will perceive the violent fermentation in England, which has arisen to such a height as to produce a
- 37. Congress in fact, and it will soon be so in name. The proceedings in the House of Commons on the 14th, which were terminated by a resolution of the committee of the whole house, to abolish the Board of Trade and Plantations, carried against the Ministry after a very long and warm debate, by a majority of eight voices, is not only the most extraordinary vote, which has passed in the present reign, but it tends to very extensive consequences. I believe it is very true, that this Board has been the true cause of the quarrel of Great Britain against the Colonies, and therefore may be considered as an object of national resentment, but a resentment of this kind alone would not probably have produced this effect. Whether it is the near approach of an election, that has intimidated the members of the House of Commons, or whether committees, petitions, associations, and Congress have alarmed them, or whether the nation is convinced, that America is indeed lost forever, and consequently the Board of Trade would be useless, I do not know. Be this as it may, the English nation, and even the Irish and Scotch nations, and all parts of the world will draw this inference from it, that even in the opinion of the House of Commons America is lost. The free and virtuous citizens of America, and even the slavish and vicious, if there are any still remaining of this character, under the denomination of tories, must be convinced by this vote, passed in the hey-day of their joy for the successes of Admiral Rodney's fleet, that the House of Commons despaired of ever regaining America. The nations subject to the House of Bourbon cannot fail to put the same interpretation upon this transaction. Holland and all the northern powers, with the Empress of Russia at their head, who are all greatly irritated against England for their late violences against the innocent commerce of neutral powers, will draw the same consequences. The politicians of Great Britain are too enlightened in the history of nations, and the rise and progress of causes and effects in the political world, not to see, that all these bodies of people will, in consequence of this vote, consider the Colonies given up as lost by the House of Commons, and they are
- 38. too well instructed, not to know the important consequences that follow, from having such points as those thus settled among the nations. I cannot, therefore, but consider this vote, and the other respecting the Secretary of State for the American Department, which arose almost to a balance, as a decided declaration of the sense of the nation. The first consequence of it probably will be one further attempt, by offering some specious terms, which they know we cannot in justice, in honor, in conscience, accept, to deceive, seduce, and divide America, throw all into confusion there, and by this means gaining an opportunity to govern. There is nothing more astonishing than the inconsistencies of the patriots in England. Those, who are most violent against the Ministry, are not for making peace with France and Spain, but they would wish to allure America into a separate peace, and persuade her to join them against the House of Bourbon. One would think it impossible, that one man of sense in the world could seriously believe, that we could thus basely violate our truth, thus unreasonably quarrel with our best friends, thus madly attach ourselves to our belligerent enemies. But thus it is. Sir George Saville threw out in the House, that he wished to carry home to his constituents the news of an accommodation with America, and Mr David Hartley has given notice of his intentions to make a motion relative to us. But I confess I have no expectations. Mr Hartley's motions and speeches have never made any great fortune in the House, nor been much attended to; from whence I conclude, if the present great leaders, even of opposition in the House, were seriously disposed to do anything towards a pacification, which we could attend to, they would not suffer Mr Hartley to have the honor of making the motion. The heads of many people run upon a truce with America, and Mr Hartley's motion may tend this way; but a truce with America cannot be made without a peace with France and Spain, and would America accept of such a truce? Give Great Britain time to encroach and fortify upon all our frontiers? To send enemies into the States, and
- 39. sow the seeds of discord? To rise out of her present exhausted condition? Suffer France and Spain to relax? Wait for alterations by the death of Princes, or the changes in the characters of Princes, or Ministers in Europe? I ask these questions, that Congress may give me instructions, if necessary. At present I do not believe my powers are sufficient to agree to a truce, if it was proposed; nor do I believe it would be for our interests or safety to agree to it, if I had. I do not mean, however, to give any decided opinion upon such a great question, in this hasty letter; I am open to conviction, and shall obey the instructions of Congress, with the most perfect respect. I have the honor to be, &c. JOHN ADAMS. TO THE PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS. Paris, March 24th, 1780. Sir, Mr Burke's bill not being as yet public, we are not yet informed of the items of it. But as it already appears, that it strikes at the Department of Secretary of State for America, and at the Board of Trade, there seems to be little reason to doubt that it goes further, and strikes at the American Board of Commissioners, at all the American Judges of Admiralty, Governors of Provinces, Secretaries, and Custom House Officers of all denominations. At least, if this should not be found to be a part of the bill, there are stronger reasons, if possible, for abolishing this whole system of iniquity, together with all the pensions granted to the refugees from America, than even for taking away the Board of Trade. And from several late paragraphs in the papers, and from Mr Fox's severe observations in
- 40. the House of Commons upon Governor Hutchinson, calling him in substance the "firebrand that lighted up all the fire between the two countries," it seems pretty clear, that it is in contemplation to take away all these salaries and pensions. If such a measure should take place, exiled as these persons are from the country, which gave them birth, but which they have most ungratefully endeavored to enslave, they will become melancholy monuments of divine vengeance against such unnatural and impious behavior. Nevertheless, as these persons are numerous, and have some friends in England as well as in America, where they had once much property, there is a probability, I think, that whenever or wherever negotiations for peace may be commenced, they and their estates now almost universally confiscated, will not be forgotten. But much pains and art will be employed to stipulate for them in the treaty, both a restoration of their property, and a right to return as citizens of the States to which they formerly belonged. It is very possible, however, that before the treaty shall be made, or even negotiations commenced, these gentlemen will become so unpopular and odious, that the people of England would be pleased with their sufferings and punishment. But it is most probable, that the Court will not abandon them very easily. I should, therefore, be very happy to have the explicit instructions of Congress upon this head, whether I am to agree, in any case whatsoever, to an article which shall admit of their return, or the restoration of their forfeited estates. There are sentiments of humanity and forgiveness which plead on one side, there are reasons of state and political motives, among which the danger of admitting such mischievous persons as citizens, is not the least considerable, which argue on the other. I shall obey the instructions of Congress with the utmost pleasure, or if, for any reasons they choose to leave it at discretion, if I ever should have the opportunity, I shall determine it without listening to any passions of my own of compassion or resentment, according to my best judgment of the public good. There is another point of very
- 41. great importance, which I am persuaded will be aimed at by the English Ministers, I am sure it will by the people of England, whenever times of peace shall be talked of. For facilitating the return of commerce, they will wish to have it stipulated by the treaty, that the subjects of Great Britain shall have the rights of citizens in America, and the citizens of the United States the rights of subjects in the British dominions. Some of the consequences of such an agreement to them and to us are obvious and very important, but they are so numerous, that it is difficult to determine whether so great a question should be left to my determination. If, however, contrary to my inclinations, it should fall to my lot to decide it without instructions, it shall be decided according to my conscience, and the best lights I have. I have the honor to be, &c., JOHN ADAMS. TO THE PRESIDENT OF CONGRESS. Paris, March 24th, 1780. Sir, It has been observed in former letters, that there is scarcely an example of such a series of fortunate incidents as that which happened to Rodney's fleet, and it may be proper to dilate a little upon some of these incidents, to show that the enthusiastic applause, which is given him by the Court, the Lords, the Commons, and the city of London, is no otherwise merited than by the boldness of his enterprise; unless simple good fortune is merit.
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