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Alan Hartman – IBM Haifa Research Lab
20 June 2012




Trust Measurement and Management


        Open Research Issues




                                        © 2009 IBM Corporation
Agenda


    Motivation

    Defining Trust

    Relationship between Risk and Trust

    Basic Trust Management Scenario

    More Complex Scenarios




2                                         © 2009 IBM Corporation
Why measure and manage trust?

    Distrust and caution are the parents of security. - Benjamin
    Franklin
    The trust of the innocent is the liar’s most useful tool. -
    Stephen King
    Trust, but verify. – Ronald Reagan




3                                                                 © 2009 IBM Corporation
Definition of trust

    Trust is: An expectation about a future behaviour of
    another person … depending on the degree of trust
    and the extent of the associated risk (Kasselbaum
    Ph. D. Thesis in Sociology)


    Trust is: A function with three parameters:
     –Trust(Trustee, Trustor, ActivityOutcome), whose
      value is the probability (degree of trust) that
      Trustor believes that Trustee will produce
      ActivityOutcome in the future



4                                                          © 2009 IBM Corporation
Relationship between trust and risk
     Working Hypothesis: A decision (by the Trustor) on whether to offer
     the Trustee the opportunity to participate in an Activity with the
     Trustor is based on both Trust and Risk


     Payoff is: a measure of the expected utility to the
     Trustor associated with all possible outcomes of an
     activity.
      Payoff(Trustor, Activity) = sum over all Outcomes
      (Trust( Trustee, Trustor, ActivityOutcome ) * Value(Outcome))

    Rational behavior: If the payoff is positive, then take the
    risk


    Also rational: If the worst case is too awful, don’t take the
    risk
5                                                                     © 2009 IBM Corporation
Academic Interest in Trust
    Sociology
     –Who trusts the Internet?
     –What are the factors that influence a person to trust
      interactions in cyberspace?


    Economics
     –What motivates trust and cooperation?
     –What reputation and incentive mechanisms to promote
      trust?


    Management
     –Creating and maintaining trust – as part of leadership


    Computer Science
     –Creating trust in computing infrastructure and services
6                                                               © 2009 IBM Corporation
Basic Trust Management Scenario


        1. Build Trust


        2. Shake Trust


        3. Restore Trust




7                                 © 2009 IBM Corporation
Building Trust
    Trustor A trusts Trustee B to produce Outcome C with confidence level P0




8                                                                   © 2009 IBM Corporation
ShakingTrust


    An Event E occurs which
    causes P0 to decrease to P'
    which is below the threshold
    Pt determined by Trustee B




9                                  © 2009 IBM Corporation
Trust Restoration
      Trustee B takes mitigation
     action M and measures new
     trust level P ''




10                                 © 2009 IBM Corporation
Basic Scenario For Trust Management

1) Initial condition: Trustor A trusts Trustee B to
 produce outcome C with confidence level P0
2) Either an Event E occurs which causes P0 to
 decrease to P' which is below the threshold Pt
 determined by Trustee B Or P0 < Pt in the first
 place
3) Loop on i:
  I.    B takes mitigation action Mi and measures
        confidence level Pi (Assume Mi are ordered
        in decreasing order of cost effectiveness)
  II.   Until Pi >= Pt, or no cost effective mitigation
        actions remain in the arsenal of B

                                                          © 2009 IBM Corporation
Research Challenges for Trust Management

• How to measure P for a given A, B, and C

• How to determine an appropriate threshold Pt for a
  given A, B, C
• What are appropriate mitigation actions Mi for a
  given A, B, C, E

• How to detect and report trust breach events E

• How to measure cost effectiveness of Mi

• When to give up – i.e. what is the law of
  diminishing returns in the context of A, B, C, E,
  and P0, P1, P2, ...Pi
                                                       © 2009 IBM Corporation
Measuring Trustworthiness of ICT Systems

Quantifying Trustworthiness
Using Quantifiable Properties*


                Dependability

                      Security

                Performability


13   *University of Kansas, Resilinets Wiki   © 2009 IBM Corporation
Measuring Trustworthiness of Individuals or
Organizations
     Quantifiable Properties


     Trustworthy actions
            Observed
            Reported by trusted source
            Evidence

     Trustworthy reputation
            Reputation measure
            Trusted reputation system
            Membership of trusted organization
            Trusted guarantor


14                                               © 2009 IBM Corporation
Ideas on How to measure trust


     Measure trusting actions in the past and assume
     that the future is like the (immediate) past


     Measure non-trusting actions


     Create a trust model and measure the
     antecedents of trust:


     Create a population model and a trustor classifier
15                                                        © 2009 IBM Corporation
Mutual trust scenario

 Alice trusts BigBank to maintain the integrity of
 her credit card with P=99%
 BigBank trusts Alice to be honest with it with
 Q=95%
 E is an unauthorized credit card transaction
 from Alice's account – reported to BigBank by
 Alice (P'=85%, Q'=75%)
 What actions should Alice and BigBank take to
 rebuild mutual trust?
 What is the protocol for mutual trust
 negotiation?
                                                     © 2009 IBM Corporation
B2B trust scenario

 OmahaInsurance is negotiating with IBM to
 outsource their health insurance claims
 processing
 Trust is held between IBM and Omaha and
 also between Omaha and its customers
 Event = break in to IBM office in Bangalore
 Action C is contract negotiation between IBM
 and Omaha




                                                © 2009 IBM Corporation
Trust me, I’m a doctor




18                       © 2009 IBM Corporation

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Trust Measurement and Management

  • 1. Alan Hartman – IBM Haifa Research Lab 20 June 2012 Trust Measurement and Management Open Research Issues © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 2. Agenda Motivation Defining Trust Relationship between Risk and Trust Basic Trust Management Scenario More Complex Scenarios 2 © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 3. Why measure and manage trust? Distrust and caution are the parents of security. - Benjamin Franklin The trust of the innocent is the liar’s most useful tool. - Stephen King Trust, but verify. – Ronald Reagan 3 © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 4. Definition of trust Trust is: An expectation about a future behaviour of another person … depending on the degree of trust and the extent of the associated risk (Kasselbaum Ph. D. Thesis in Sociology) Trust is: A function with three parameters: –Trust(Trustee, Trustor, ActivityOutcome), whose value is the probability (degree of trust) that Trustor believes that Trustee will produce ActivityOutcome in the future 4 © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 5. Relationship between trust and risk Working Hypothesis: A decision (by the Trustor) on whether to offer the Trustee the opportunity to participate in an Activity with the Trustor is based on both Trust and Risk Payoff is: a measure of the expected utility to the Trustor associated with all possible outcomes of an activity. Payoff(Trustor, Activity) = sum over all Outcomes (Trust( Trustee, Trustor, ActivityOutcome ) * Value(Outcome)) Rational behavior: If the payoff is positive, then take the risk Also rational: If the worst case is too awful, don’t take the risk 5 © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 6. Academic Interest in Trust Sociology –Who trusts the Internet? –What are the factors that influence a person to trust interactions in cyberspace? Economics –What motivates trust and cooperation? –What reputation and incentive mechanisms to promote trust? Management –Creating and maintaining trust – as part of leadership Computer Science –Creating trust in computing infrastructure and services 6 © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 7. Basic Trust Management Scenario 1. Build Trust 2. Shake Trust 3. Restore Trust 7 © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 8. Building Trust Trustor A trusts Trustee B to produce Outcome C with confidence level P0 8 © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 9. ShakingTrust An Event E occurs which causes P0 to decrease to P' which is below the threshold Pt determined by Trustee B 9 © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 10. Trust Restoration Trustee B takes mitigation action M and measures new trust level P '' 10 © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 11. Basic Scenario For Trust Management 1) Initial condition: Trustor A trusts Trustee B to produce outcome C with confidence level P0 2) Either an Event E occurs which causes P0 to decrease to P' which is below the threshold Pt determined by Trustee B Or P0 < Pt in the first place 3) Loop on i: I. B takes mitigation action Mi and measures confidence level Pi (Assume Mi are ordered in decreasing order of cost effectiveness) II. Until Pi >= Pt, or no cost effective mitigation actions remain in the arsenal of B © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 12. Research Challenges for Trust Management • How to measure P for a given A, B, and C • How to determine an appropriate threshold Pt for a given A, B, C • What are appropriate mitigation actions Mi for a given A, B, C, E • How to detect and report trust breach events E • How to measure cost effectiveness of Mi • When to give up – i.e. what is the law of diminishing returns in the context of A, B, C, E, and P0, P1, P2, ...Pi © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 13. Measuring Trustworthiness of ICT Systems Quantifying Trustworthiness Using Quantifiable Properties* Dependability Security Performability 13 *University of Kansas, Resilinets Wiki © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 14. Measuring Trustworthiness of Individuals or Organizations Quantifiable Properties Trustworthy actions Observed Reported by trusted source Evidence Trustworthy reputation Reputation measure Trusted reputation system Membership of trusted organization Trusted guarantor 14 © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 15. Ideas on How to measure trust Measure trusting actions in the past and assume that the future is like the (immediate) past Measure non-trusting actions Create a trust model and measure the antecedents of trust: Create a population model and a trustor classifier 15 © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 16. Mutual trust scenario Alice trusts BigBank to maintain the integrity of her credit card with P=99% BigBank trusts Alice to be honest with it with Q=95% E is an unauthorized credit card transaction from Alice's account – reported to BigBank by Alice (P'=85%, Q'=75%) What actions should Alice and BigBank take to rebuild mutual trust? What is the protocol for mutual trust negotiation? © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 17. B2B trust scenario OmahaInsurance is negotiating with IBM to outsource their health insurance claims processing Trust is held between IBM and Omaha and also between Omaha and its customers Event = break in to IBM office in Bangalore Action C is contract negotiation between IBM and Omaha © 2009 IBM Corporation
  • 18. Trust me, I’m a doctor 18 © 2009 IBM Corporation