![Animated Video of Human Population Growth
7
Video Link (7 minutes long)
Watch it
Think about the implications
World Human Population Growth Rate
8
This graph shows total human population for the past 12,000
years. As you can see, we didn’t reach 100 million until about
500 BCE (BC) [a]. Then we experienced slow population
growth until about 1000 CE (AD) [b]. Population began rising
at a dramatic rate in the past 500 years or so. We hit our first
billion by1815 CE [c] and added another six billion in less than
200 years! [d]
a
b
c
d
World Population Projections
Now we’ve zoomed in on the past two centuries and added
population growth projections for the next century
Skyrocketing human population growth is probably beginning to
slow
Most experts think the medium projection is the most likely](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/unmilleniumdevelopmentgoalsfinalprojectsnarrsnarr-221101170848-f388eea9/85/UN-Millenium-Development-GoalsFinal-ProjectSnarr-Snarr-docx-127-320.jpg)
UN Millenium Development GoalsFinal ProjectSnarr & Snarr, .docx
- 1. UN Millenium Development Goals Final Project Snarr & Snarr, Pp. 162-64 Module 9 UN Millennium Summit, 2000 All 189 attending nations agreed to specific development goals to be achieved by 2015 Millennium Villages Idea behind goals is that impoverished villages can transform themselves if they are “empowered with proven, powerful, practical technologies” Summit produced UN Millennium Declaration Collaborative effort by task forces composed of experts from IGOs, state governments, NGOs, universities, corporations, and others Goals of the declaration are known as the eight Millennium Development Goals (MDG) 2 MDG 1-8 – Study Resources UN Millennium Goals website Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger Achieve Universal Primary Education Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women
- 2. Reduce Child Mortality Improve Maternal Health Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria, and Other Diseases Ensure Environmental Sustainability Develop a Global Partnership for Development 3 POL101 Final Assignment: MDG Report Read the “Fact Sheet” for each MDG (follow detailed information links on previous slide) Go to Module 9 Forum and contribute to class discussion. Be sure to show what you have learned from several modules Once you have contributed to class discussion, Choose any 6 of the specific MDG targets and write a detailed report on the international community’s progress toward meeting the targets. Use UN, World Bank websites for research As indicated on the Fact Sheets, each of the 8 MDGs have from 1 to 5 specific targets (sub-goals). There are a total of 20 targets spread out among all 8 of the MDGs. Choose any 6 of these you like. Assignment details on next slide 4 POL101 Final Assignment: MDG Report (continued) Report must be formatted as follows (double-spaced, 12 point font, MS Word file format, cite all sources, 8-16 paragraphs
- 3. total length + list of works cited) Introduction: 1-2 paragraphs Why did you choose these goals/targets? Give a brief background/overview of MDGs and development assistance. MDG Targets: 1-2 paragraphs each Label and explain goal and target. Describe progress—will it meet deadline? Conclusion: 1-2 paragraphs What did you discover in your report? How well are MDGs being met? Why? Submit file in Assignments 5 Assignments—Due 8/1, 11:55PM EDT (GMT/UTC - 4:00) No Extensions! Final Assignment: MDG Report Module 9 Discussion in Forum 6 Regulating the Atmospheric Commons Snarr & Snarr, Chap 14 Module
- 4. 8 Tragedy of the Commons Commons resources that are shared or collectively owned Tragedy of the Commons a situation in which multiple individuals, acting independently, and solely and rationally consulting their own self-interest, will ultimately deplete a shared limited resource even when it is clear that it is not in anyone's long-term interest for this to happen. Read this brief essay by Garrett Hardin Think about how the atmosphere is a commons and air pollution, global warming,… represent tragedies of the commons. Discuss in the Forum Now we will look in-depth at one global issue dealing with the atmosphere: Global Warming 2 Global Warming What’s heating the Earth? Starts with solar radiation Atmosphere lets most light in Some reflected, some absorbed by ground
- 5. Video: Climate Change 101 with Bill Nye the Science Guy The Greenhouse Effect Step 1: Earth’s surface absorbs short-wavelength solar radiation (visible light), and becomes warmer Step 2: Earth’s surface re-radiates the energy as long- wavelength radiation (heat) The Greenhouse Effect (continued) Step 3: Molecules of certain gases in the atmosphere absorb some of the heat, and the atmosphere becomes warmer. Greenhouse gases (GHG): CO2, water, methane, others 5 Greenhouse Effect, CO2, and Global Warming The Greenhouse Effect Natural phenomenon that keeps us comfortable on Earth. CO2 is the most important greenhouse gas If less CO2 in atmosphere then temperature and climate are cooler If more CO2 in atmosphere then temperature and climate are warmer
- 6. Atmospheric CO2 levels today are about 393 parts per million (ppm) or 0.0393% This may not seem like a lot, but it’s the highest in AT LEAST 800,000 years! Check out these two articles Ice Core Data Show Current CO2 Levels Highest in 800,000 Years UCLA Researchers Find CO2 at Highest Levels in 15 Million Years 6 7 How Do We Know What Prehistoric CO2 Levels Were? We examine ice core samples 8 Ice Core Analysis 9
- 7. Ice Core Analysis (continued) Most ice in glaciers and at the poles originates from snowfall Seasonal variation in snowfall causes layering in the ice This image clearly shows the annual layers in a core sample The deeper we drill, the older the ice we extract Since the ice originated as snow, bubbles of air are trapped inside The air bubbles are samples of the atmosphere from 1000s of years ago By analyzing the chemical composition of the ice and air samples, we can determine the approximate temperature and the amount of CO2 present in the atmosphere 10 11 Ice Core Analysis (continued) Examine the Vostok ice core graph on the previous page It covers a 400,000 year period ending in 1950 CE (AD) What is the apparent relationship between atmospheric CO2 and temperature? From previous slides, what is the atmospheric CO2 level in
- 8. 2010? What could that mean for global temperatures? Ice core data from the North and South Poles as well as data from near the equator in Hawai’i show rapid rise in atmospheric CO2 12 Where does CO2 come from? 13 13 CO2 and Human Activity 14 This box is a zoomed in view of the past 1000 years It suggests that human activity has caused the dramatic increase in CO2 levels Causes: burning of fossil fuels, wood,…; destruction of “carbon sinks” (ex: trees and algae that absorb carbon) The graph on the next slide shows an even stronger correlation between people and CO2
- 9. Human Activity and CO2 15 Evidence the Earth is Warming 16 What about Ohio? (Data from US Historical Climatology Network) 17 What about other stations? Pacific Coast 18 Pacific Northwest
- 10. 19 Desert Southwest (Note this is maximum not mean) 20 20 Rocky Mountains 21 21 Central Great Plains 22
- 11. 22 Southeast 23 Northeast 24 With respect to average temperature 1940-1980 25 Global average temperature 1855-2002 26
- 12. Look at the colored bars representing average temperature changes per decade over the past 150 years. Note how the rate of temperature increase is increasing. I.e., we’re getting warmer faster. 27 27 Some of the Effects of Global Warming 28 29 Snow Cover on Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania 1993 and 2000 Check out this brief video for more on Kilimanjaro’s glaciers. National Geographic on Kilimanjaro
- 13. Think about it: What is occurring on Kilimanjaro? Where else in the world do you think this is happening? How important is it? What will be the impact on humans, wildlife, agriculture,…? 30 Arctic Sea Ice Coverage, 1979-2007 Note the rapid decrease in sea ice coverage. As global warming causes reductions in sea ice, the lack of sea ice causes further global warming. This is because ice is more reflective than open ocean. It reflects sunlight and heat back into space. As it vanishes, more sunlight is absorbed by the seas and the warmer they become. The warmer the seas, the more ice melts… Rising Oceans Sea ice melt does not affect sea level since the ice that melts was already displacing water However, melt runoff from glaciers and ice cover on land (Antarctica, Greenland,…) does cause sea level rise 32
- 14. Additional Effects Loss of habitat and extinction of species Extreme weather events Changes in precipitation patterns Shifts in agricultural zones Expansion of tropical disease ranges Flooding of low-lying areas 33 Climate Change Regime Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Leading UN agency that researches and advises on climate change National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Key US agency dealing with climate change Kyoto Protocol, 1997 Legally binding targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions Went into effect in 2005 Some see it as a crucial step toward controlling GHG Others see it as a failure. USA signed but never ratified Kyoto Copenhagen Accord, 2009 New International agreement to reduce GHG Pros: all countries now recognize global warming as “one of the greatest challenges of our time” Cons: very weak , not legally-binding, strong disagreements between MDCs and LDCs 34
- 15. Just so you know where we stand… 35 36 Climate is changing. How can we adapt? Watch this TED Talk by Vicki Arroyo 10 minute video: Let’s Prepare for Our New Climate Write a 4-5 paragraph summary & analysis Submit under Assignments on Isidore 37 Other Atmospheric Issues—Ozone Depletion Has NOTHING directly to do with global warming Certain chemicals (Ozone depleting substances—ODS) interact
- 16. with and destroy ozone (O3) in the stratosphere Common ODS: chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) from aerosol cans, refrigerators, solvents, ... ; halon from fire extinguishers; nitrous oxide; and others Lower levels of stratospheric ozone allow in too much ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun, which causes blindness, skin cancer, and, potentially, eradication of all life on earth Montreal Protocol, 1987 Agreement to halt the production of CFC. Most successful international agreement of ALL TIME Ozone layer is currently repairing itself As long as countries follow Montreal Protocol, the problem should be fixed 38 Other Atmospheric Issues—Acid Rain A global issue because it is often transboundary (crosses borders) Primarily from burning of high sulfur content coal in power plants for electricity generation Sulfur dioxide (SO2) in power plant emissions combines with water vapor (H2O) in the atmosphere to produce H2SO4— Sulfuric Acid Adverse effects Soil and bodies of water become more acidic, killing microbes, insects, fish, and plants Damages agriculture, ecosystems, forests, buildings, and has been linked to some cancers and other diseases in humans No UN agreements on acid rain since, unlike global warming and ozone depletion, it is not a global, but a regional problem 39
- 17. Acronyms to Know Find them in the chapter, power point, or the list of acronyms on p.329 in the text The acronyms of Modules 7 & 8 are combined for the Acronym 5 Assignment Once you know what each acronym stands for, go to Assignments and complete the Acronym 5 assignment CFC CO2 GHG IPCC NOAA ODS 40 Assignments—Due 7/27 News Summary and Analysis on Climate Change Vicki Arroyo TED Talk essay Acronym 5 Assignment Module 8 Discussion in Forum 41 January Mean Daily Temperatures at Anchorage, Alaska -40
- 18. -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 1890190019101920193019401950196019701980199020002010 Year Mean Daily Temp (deg C) Daily Mean5 per. Mov. Avg. (Daily Mean)Linear (Daily Mean) CardDeck SimMonte Carlo Simulation using card deckYears% Red Cards% Black CardsYearPredicted Temp Change0001 to 2050%50%20021 to 4054.2%45.8%401.6741 to 6059.1%40.9%603.6461 to 8065.0%35.0%806.00YearGroup 1Group 2Group 3Group 4Group 5Group 6Group 7AveragePredicted000000000.0001-11-1-1-111-0.142-21-2-2- 202-0.713-32-3-3-113-0.574-23-4-4-224-0.435-14-3-5-113- 0.29605-2-6-2240.14714-1-5-1130.298230-4-2240.71912-1-5- 1130.0010210-6-2240.141112-1-5-313-0.2912010-4-402- 0.7113-121-5-5-11-1.1414-232-6-6-22-1.2915-321-5-5-33- 1.4316-410-6-6-44-2.1417-32-1-7-5-53-2.2918-230-8-4-42- 1.8619-12-1-7-3-53-1.712003-2-6-2-64-1.29021-12-1-5-3-55- 1.1422030-4-4-44-0.7123-14-1-5-3-53-1.1424-23-2-6-2-42- 1.5725-34-1-5-1-33-0.8626-430-40-24-0.4327-54-1-31- 150.0028-650-22-260.4329-761-31-350.0030-672-42-460.4331- 761-33-350.2932-872-22-440.1433-781-33-530.0034-672-42- 62-0.4335-783-53-73-0.2936-692-64-84-0.1437-581-55-93- 0.2938-672-64-104-0.7139-583-53-113-0.5740-492-44-102- 0.141.6741-3101-53-113-0.2942-4110-42-104-0.1443-5101-53- 113-0.5744-6110-64-104-0.4345-7121-75-950.0046-6110-64- 860.1447-510-1-73-75-0.2948-6110-84-64-0.1449-510-1-95- 550.0050-490-86-440.4351-310-1-97-330.5752-4110-88- 441.0053-3121-79-352.0054-2130-68-242.1455-112-1-79- 331.71560110-68-242.1457-1121-79-332.0058-2132-68- 242.4359-1143-79-352.8660-2134-610-263.293.6461-1125-511-
- 19. 174.00620116-612064.14631127-713174.86640116- 614285.00651127-515195.71662116-4162106.14673125- 5153116.29682136-6144106.14693147-715396.29702136- 8164106.14711127-7173116.29722138-6184127.29733149- 5193117.717441510-4204128.71753149-5193138.00762138- 6204147.86773149-5213138.29782158-4224148.71791169- 3215138.8668021710-2204149.2981-182-283-184085- 1860871882891902913922933944953964975986997 Faculty: Caitlin, Kelli, Barb, Megan, Meghan, Brittany Faculty: Chad, Matt, Megan, Emily, Georgia Faculty: Jamie, Mark, Cheri, Kathryn, Kyla, Stephanie, Sheldon Faculty: Christine, Ashley, Drey, Trey, WC, Samantha Faculty: Brock, Becca, Gretchen, Mary, Emily, Mary Giblin Faculty: Mike Eble, Matt Meyers, Lauren Andrako Faculty: Ashley, Ashlyn, Bethany, Jeff, Anna MonteCarloChart00000000011111111122222222233333333344 44444445555555556666666667777777778888888889999999991 01010101010101010111111111111111111121212121212121212 13131313131313131314141414141414141415151515151515151 51616161616161616161717171717171717171818181818181818 18191919191919191919202020202020202020212121212121212 12122222222222222222223232323232323232324242424242424 24242525252525252525252626262626262626262727272727272 72727282828282828282828292929292929292929303030303030 30303031313131313131313132323232323232323233333333333 33333333434343434343434343535353535353535353636363636 36363636373737373737373737383838383838383838393939393 93939393940404040404040404041414141414141414142424242 42424242424343434343434343434444444444444444444545454
- 20. 54545454545464646464646464646474747474747474747484848 48484848484849494949494949494950505050505050505051515 15151515151515252525252525252525353535353535353535454 54545454545454555555555555555555565656565656565656575 75757575757575758585858585858585859595959595959595960 60606060606060606161616161616161616262626262626262626 36363636363636363646464646464646464656565656565656565 66666666666666666667676767676767676768686868686868686 86969696969696969697070707070707070707171717171717171 71727272727272727272737373737373737373747474747474747 47475757575757575757576767676767676767677777777777777 77777878787878787878787979797979797979798080808080808 08080818181818181818181828282828282828282838383838383 83838384848484848484848485858585858585858586868686868 68686868787878787878787878888888888888888888989898989 89898989909090909090909090919191919191919191929292929 29292929293939393939393939394949494949494949495959595 95959595959696969696969696969797979797979797979898989 89898989898999999999999999999 Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6 Group 7 Average Predicted Years Change in Temp Monte Carlo Climate Simulation 0 0 0 0 0
- 75. 11.9100T1008E50E2005- 062005616.611.25.729.30.437037027E54E2005- 072005720.315.71128.26.185.2085.2024E52E2005- 082005818.513.88.930.62.376.2076.2036B50B2005- 092005911.57.73.922.6-2.126.20T27.70T32E59E2005- 102005106.72.7-1.317.5-718.61.8201<31Climate Identifier2202400Date/TimeYearMonthMean Max Temp (°C)Mean Max Temp FlagMean Temp (°C)Mean Temp FlagMean Min Temp (°C)Mean Min Temp FlagExtr Max Temp (°C)Extr Max Temp FlagExtr Min Temp (°C)Extr Min Temp FlagTotal Rain (mm)Total Rain FlagTotal Snow (cm)Total Snow FlagTotal Precip (mm)Total Precip FlagSnow Grnd Last Day (cm)Snow Grnd Last Day FlagDir of Max Gust (10's Deg)Dir of Max Gust FlagSpd of Max Gust (km/h)Spd of Max Gust FlagElevation165.5Latitude60.84Longitude- 115.78ProvinceNORTHWEST TERRITORIESStation NameHAY RIVER ATC IdentifierYHYWMO Identifier71935 Jan DataStation NameHAY RIVER AProvinceNORTHWEST TERRITORIESLatitude60.84Longitude- 115.78Elevation165.5Climate Identifier2202400WMO Identifier71935TC IdentifierYHYYear-MonthMean Max Temp (°C)Mean Temp (°C)Mean Min Temp (°C)1894-28.7-32.1- 35.41895-25.3-29.3-33.31896-28.6-32.7-36.818971898-16.5- 20.4-24.21899-21.3-26.6-31.81900-23.2-28-32.71901-21.6-27.1- 32.61902-18.4-24.6-30.71903-16.8-24.5-32.11904-23.4-27.3- 31.11905-16.9-22.9-28.81906-25.8-30.3-34.71907-22.5-28.8- 35.11908-16.5-23.5-30.41909-25.8-31.2-36.51910-16.4-22.1- 27.71911-29.2-33.8-38.41912-21.9-26.7-31.51913-26.5-32.6- 38.71914-22.3-26.3-30.21915-28.21916-23.6-28.5-33.41917- 23.2-28.7-34.21918-31.41919-16.1-22.1-281920-18.4-23.1- 27.81921-21.4-25.3-29.11922-18.2-22.2-26.21923-22.1-27- 31.91924-24.9-29.1-33.31925-26.6-30.5-34.31926-15.7-21.1- 26.51927-19.3-23.3-27.31928-14.1-20-25.81929-21.6-28.1- 34.61930-16.1-22.6-291931-15.3-20.6-25.81932-18.7-24.8- 30.81933-25.7-30.5-35.31934-20.9-26.8-32.71935-22.4-27.8- 33.11936-27.6-33.9-40.11937-18.9-24.6-30.21938-19.2-24-
- 77. 19511951195119521952195219531953195319541954195419551 95519551956195619561957195719571958195819581959195919 59196019601960196119611961196219621962196319631963196 41964196419651965196519661966196619671967196719681968 19681969196919691970197019701971197119711972197219721 97319731973197419741974197519751975197619761976197719 77197719781978197819791979197919801980198019811981198 11982198219821983198319831984198419841985198519851986 19861986198719871987198819881988198919891989199019901 99019911991199119921992199219931993199319941994199419 95199519951996199619961997199719971998199819981999199 91999200020002000200120012001200220022002200320032003 200420042004200520052005 Daily Max Daily Mean Daily Min Year Mean Daily Temp (deg C) January Mean Daily Temperatures -28.7 -32.1 -35.4 -25.3 -29.3 -33.3 -28.6 -32.7 -36.8 -16.5 -20.4 -24.2 -21.3 -26.6 -31.8 -23.2 -28
- 86. -18.4 -22.7 -27 -15.8 -20.5 -25.1 -9 -13.2 -17.4 -17.2 -21.5 -25.8 -16.9 -21.3 -25.6 -21.8 -25.4 -29 -18 -22.6 -27.2 AnchorageAnchorage, AlaskaMean Daily Maximum & Minimum Temps (deg F) for Month of MayYearMaxMinDifference191653.7833.6220.16191755.5835.7 819.8191854.6833.6221.06191959.1832.18271920 57.3857.381920 28.581921 60.4460.441921 31.821922 59.001922 59.001922 31.821923 59.721923 59.721923 33.981924 59.001924 59.001924 35.061925 58.281925 58.281925 35.781926 63.861926 63.861926 35.241927 58.461927 58.461927 33.081928 56.121928 56.121928 33.621929 NO DATA1929 NO DATA1929 NO DATA1930 55.401930 55.401930 32.721931 56.661931 56.661931 33.261932 53.421932 53.421932 32.361933 55.041933 55.041933 33.981934 55.041934 55.041934 33.621935
- 87. 54.501935 54.501935 33.801936 54.321936 54.321936 34.161937 55.761937 55.761937 33.261938 55.761938 55.761938 33.441939 53.781939 53.781939 33.081940 60.261940 60.261940 35.241941 56.121941 56.121941 36.141942 61.881942 61.881942 39.021943 59.541943 59.541943 35.061944 55.401944 55.401944 36.681945 54.321945 54.321945 32.541946 55.761946 55.761946 35.961947 58.101947 58.101947 37.221948 58.461948 58.461948 35.961949 56.481949 56.481949 35.241950 56.121950 56.121950 36.321951 59.361951 59.361951 36.501952 53.241952 53.241952 32.721953 58.461953 58.461953 38.121954 59.541954 59.541954 39.561955 54.141955 54.141955 35.781956 53.061956 53.061956 37.041957 60.261957 60.261957 39.021958 57.741958 57.741958 39.561959 58.641959 58.641959 35.961960 59.541960 59.541960 38.121961 59.361961 59.361961 35.781962 54.321962 54.321962 34.521963 56.121963 56.121963 34.881964 50.001964 50.001964 29.661965 53.781965 53.781965 34.341966 51.081966 51.081966 34.521967 56.661967 56.661967 34.881968 55.941968 55.941968 37.761969 55.041969 55.041969 37.581970 56.301970 56.301970 37.221971 47.301971 47.301971 33.261972 49.281972 49.281972 34.521973 50.181973 50.181973 34.341974 57.921974 57.921974 35.061975 53.781975 53.781975 36.141976 51.801976 51.801976 35.241977 54.321977 54.321977 36.681978 57.021978 57.021978 38.121979 58.101979 58.101979 39.561980 52.341980 52.341980 39.201981 59.541981 59.541981 41.721982 52.521982 52.521982 36.321983
- 88. 55.941983 55.941983 41.361984 58.281984 58.281984 40.821985 52.881985 52.881985 37.221986 54.861986 54.861986 38.301987 54.141987 54.141987 40.281988 55.581988 55.581988 41.361989 53.961989 53.961989 38.661990 57.381990 57.381990 42.261991 54.861991 54.861991 38.121992 54.1454.1437.9416.21993 59.3659.3642.0817.281994 54.5054.539.7414.761995 56.4856.484115.481996 60.2660.2639.9220.34 AprJulOct DataApril Mean Daily TemperaturesJuly Mean Daily TemperaturesOctober Mean Daily TemperaturesYearYearYear1894-3.6-9.9-16.2189418943.70.5- 2.718956.91.6-3.7189523.716.91018954.20.7-2.81896-1.4-8- 14.5189622.916.510.118964.70.8-3.11897189718972.1-2.2- 6.418988.62.3-4.1189822.6169.41898-0.1-3.8-7.41899-0.7-7.4- 14.1189921.815.59.218991.6-2.4-6.319008.81.9- 5.1190022.3169.619004.6-0.3-5.219012.4-4.5- 11.4190121.314.98.419017.82.8-2.319020.2-7.6- 15.4190219028.43.1-2.319030.7-7.3- 15.3190323.317.211.119034.6-1-6.619049.22.4- 4.5190421.715.79.719047.62.7-2.319056-1.4- 8.7190523.416.59.619051.6-2.7-6.919066.4-1.3- 8.9190627.418.910.419066.31.5-3.41907-3-11.6- 20.1190718.712.4619077.11.4-4.41908-0.9-9.6- 18.2190819084.8-0.1-4.91909-5.9-12.4- 18.9190919.614.89.919091.9-0.9-3.619101-4.6- 10.2191019.715.210.719104.71-2.81911-0.1-6.3- 12.5191120159.919116.62.6-1.51912-0.4-6.6- 12.7191217.812.67.319125.62-1.619131.5-4.2- 9.9191319.914.38.719130.3-3.3-6.919143.2-3.3- 9.8191418.714.29.719146.73-0.819159.44- 1.5191519.814.89.719151.7-1.7-5.119165.7-0.3- 6.3191619.614.79.719163.9-0.2-4.21917-0.1-6.5- 12.8191718.513.78.81917-4.91918-11.819186.619182.7-1.4- 5.419195.5-0.5-6.4191917.613.69.61919-1.7-5.3-8.81920-2.9-
- 92. 99019911991199119921992199219931993199319941994199419 95199519951996199619961997199719971998199819981999199 91999200020002000200120012001200220022002200320032003 200420042004200520052005 MAX (oC) AVG (oC) MIN (oC) Year Mean Daily Temp. (deg C) April Mean Daily Temperatures -3.6 -9.9 -16.2 6.9 1.6 -3.7 -1.4 -8 -14.5 8.6 2.3 -4.1 -0.7 -7.4 -14.1 8.8 1.9 -5.1 2.4 -4.5 -11.4 0.2 -7.6 -15.4 0.7 -7.3
- 102. 97319731973197419741974197519751975197619761976197719 77197719781978197819791979197919801980198019811981198 11982198219821983198319831984198419841985198519851986 19861986198719871987198819881988198919891989199019901 99019911991199119921992199219931993199319941994199419 95199519951996199619961997199719971998199819981999199 91999200020002000200120012001200220022002200320032003 200420042004200520052005 MAX (oC) AVG (oC) MIN (oC) 23.7 16.9 10 22.9 16.5 10.1 22.6 16 9.4 21.8 15.5 9.2 22.3 16 9.6 21.3 14.9 8.4 23.3 17.2 11.1 21.7 15.7 9.7 23.4
- 121. -1.8 -5.7 6.7 2.7 -1.3 SW18941895189618971898189919001901190219031904190519 06190719081909191019111912191319141915191619171918191 91920192119221923192419251926192719281929193019311932 19331934193519361937193819391940194119421943194419451 94619471948194919501951195219531954195519561957195819 59196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197 21973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985 19861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981 999200020012002200320042005 Daily Mean Year Mean Daily Temp (deg C) January Mean Daily Temperatures at Anchorage, Alaska -32.1 -29.3 -32.7 -20.4 -26.6 -28 -27.1 -24.6 -24.5 -27.3 -22.9 -30.3 -28.8 -23.5 -31.2 -22.1 -33.8 -26.7
- 124. -23.9 -24.5 -25.2 -21.6 -21.4 -17.6 -29.7 -16.8 -26.6 -24.2 -25.3 -22.7 -20.5 -13.2 -21.5 -21.3 -25.4 -22.6 Population and Migration Snarr & Snarr, Chap 9 Module 7 Human Population Statistics, 2012 World Population = 7.05 billion China = 1.36 billion India = 1.26 billion USA = 315 million
- 125. Indonesia = 245 million Brazil = 199 million Click on this to see up to the minute US and World Population Clocks 2 World Vital Events Per Time Unit: 2010 (numbers represent people) 3Time UnitBirthsDeathsNatural IncreaseYear131,940,516 56,545,138 75,395,378Month10,995,043 4,712,095 6,282,948Day361,481 154,918 206,563Hour15,0626,455 8,607 Minute251108143Second4.21.82.4 Population Terms and Definitions P = B – D + (I – O) Population = Births – Deaths + (In-migration – Out-migration) The migration part of the equation only applies to population in countries or regions—obviously not to total global population— at least not yet! English is a funny language: In-migration is known as Immigration Out-migration is known as Emigration But both are pronounced the same..? Another type of migration is Transmigration (Internal Migration) Migrating from one place to another within the same country Ex: moving to urban areas, agricultural workers moving from region to region to follow crop harvests, the westward
- 126. expansion of America in 18th and 19th centuries, migration of Indonesian farmers from Java to outer islands in 20th century, … 4 Population Terms and Definitions (continued) Fertility Rate = total number of children the average woman has during her entire reproductive lifespan Fertility Replacement Value (FRV) = the fertility rate at which a stable population is ensured. FRV = 2.1 That is, the average woman should have a total of just over 2 children in order to ensure a stable human population Zero Population Growth (ZPG) = A population that is stable (neither increasing or decreasing) Demography, demographic = the science of studying population characteristics 5 Total Fertility Rates 6 Which regions of the world have the lowest fertility rates? Which have the highest? Think about what this means
- 127. Animated Video of Human Population Growth 7 Video Link (7 minutes long) Watch it Think about the implications World Human Population Growth Rate 8 This graph shows total human population for the past 12,000 years. As you can see, we didn’t reach 100 million until about 500 BCE (BC) [a]. Then we experienced slow population growth until about 1000 CE (AD) [b]. Population began rising at a dramatic rate in the past 500 years or so. We hit our first billion by1815 CE [c] and added another six billion in less than 200 years! [d] a b c d World Population Projections Now we’ve zoomed in on the past two centuries and added population growth projections for the next century Skyrocketing human population growth is probably beginning to slow Most experts think the medium projection is the most likely
- 128. 9 Comparison of Population Pyramids Very high fertility rate Very low fertility rate 10 Go to next slides for explanation… Explanation of High Fertility Rate Population Pyramid 11 Large step between 0-5 and 5-10 year olds indicates a high birth rate and/or a high under five mortality rate. Concave, pyramidal shape indicates a low life expectancy. (Fewer people alive in each age category and very few elderly.) Also a high birthrate (more people were born in each younger age category. Age (categories for every 5 years from birth to 100) Total number of people (male or female) of that age category
- 129. This is a rapidly growing population! Explanation of Low Fertility Rate Population Pyramid 12 Fewer children born in each newer age category. (Very low birthrate). “Baby boom.” High number of middle-aged indicative of a much higher birthrate about 40 years ago. Convex shape indicates a rapidly decreasing birthrate and a fairly high life expectancy. This is a population that will decrease in the future. What can you tell about this population pyramid? What can you determine about the following demographic indicators by analyzing this graph? (Answers on next page—Try to answer without looking first) What is the fertility rate? What is life expectancy? What are infant and child mortality rates? How is the population changing? (grow, shrink, stable) What country do you think it is? And why?
- 130. 1. Fertility rate Around FRV (2.1) 2. Life expectancy Long life expectancy—around 79 years 3. Infant and child mortality Very low rates 4. Population growth Slowly growing but nearing ZPG 5. What country is it? It’s highly developed and large. If you add up the population it is around 300 million. So….It’s USA The different population pyramids on the previous slides represent societies in different stages of demographic transition We theorize that all societies go through 4 (maybe 5) stages of demographic transition For most of human history, societies were at Stage 1 Very high birth rate Very high death rate These rates oscillate based on availability of food, disease, conflict, severe weather,… Since P = B - D, this yields a stable population Demographic Transition Model 15
- 131. Stage 2 shows the changes wrought by the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions Advances in medicine, sanitation, food preparation, food storage, refrigeration, transportation, immunizations, … dramatically reduced death rates in a relatively brief time Birth rates remain high because, unlike death rates, birth rates are primarily culturally determined. It takes generational changes in values, norms, traditions to change the number of babies people tend to have (China’s One Child Policy is an exception) So, fewer people die, but many are still born. These people mature and have many babies themselves. Population rises rapidly Many LDCs are currently at Stage 2 16 Stage 3 shows a decline in birth rates brought about by cultural changes After a society industrializes, people move off of farms and into cities. The average level of education increases. Women leave the home and enter the workforce. All these factors work to lower the birth rate Women gain greater control over reproduction Many children are needed to work a farm, but having too many children becomes detrimental to urban workers (think of medical and educational expenses) Research shows that education is the most effective form of “society-wide” birth control. In nearly every case, when average
- 132. education levels increase, birth rates decrease So, births decrease and the rate of population growth begins to slow Some LDCs & many MDCs are in Stage 3 17 Stage 4 represents highly developed countries Birth and death rates have stabilized at low levels Total population also stabilizes Many MDCs are in Stage 4 Stage 5 is a new addition to the model that tries to understand recent trends in some of the most highly-developed countries in the world The death rate of an aging, industrial population increases (natural causes, cancers, heart disease,…) Birth rates in Western Europe and wealthy East Asian countries have declined rapidly in recent decades Fertility rates in these countries have dropped below FRV 18 Three Perspectives on Population Growth Neo-Malthusian Based on ideas of Thomas Malthus in 18th c. Closely related to modern environmentalism Resources are essentially finite, so expanding population will eventually surpass the ability of the earth to sustain it and lead to starvation, environmental destruction, disease, and human misery
- 133. Cornucopian (Technological) Technological advances and the effect of market forces will mitigate the negative impact of increasing population More people mean more scientists, engineers, and workers. As resources become scarce, their price will go up. This leads people to use less and to develop new resources. Technological advances in deep sea offshore oil drilling are good examples of Cornucopian thinking in action. Of course, there are some downsides as well…. Structural (Marxist) Population growth is not a cause of social and economic problems, but a result of unjust, global economic structures that lock LDCs in a cycle of poverty 19 Migration There are about 214 million international migrants in 2010 There are about 42 million forcibly displaced people 15 million refugees + 1 million asylum-seekers + 26 million Internally displaced persons (IDP) The two main types of international migration, in order: Economic Migrant Seeking employment, better economic conditions Refugee Fleeing conflict, religious or political persecution, disease, famine, drought,… Asylum-seeker is someone who says they are a refugee but whose claim has not yet been verified IDPs are refugees within their own countries 20
- 134. Transmigration and Urbanization As of 2008, more than ½ the human population lived in cities For the first time in human history, we are an urban species! A mega-city is generally defined as an urban area with more than 10 million inhabitants Depending how you measure them, there are currently at least 22 megacities in the world Some of these are merging with nearby cities to form vast “mega-regions” Here’s an interesting article on the phenomenon: Mega-Regions This could be the future… 21Source: UNPD20102050World51% urban69% urbanMDCs75% urban86% urbanLDCs29% urban55% urban DON’T PANIC The Facts About Population Video Link (One Hour Long) The world might not be as bad as you might believe! Don’t Panic – is a one-hour long documentary produced by Wingspan Productions and broadcasted on BBC on the 7th of November 2013. Watch it
- 135. Think about it Write a 4-5 paragraph summary/critique Submit under Assignments on Isidore 22 Acronyms to Know Find them in the chapter, power point, or the list of acronyms on p.329 in the text. There is no assignment due yet for these acronyms. The acronyms of Modules 7 & 8 will be combined for the Acronym 5 Assignment FRV IDP UNHCR ZPG 23 Assignments—due 7/23
- 136. News Summary and Analysis on Population and/or Migration Don’t Panic summary/analysis Module 7 Discussion in Forum 24 Poverty in the Global Economy Snarr & Snarr, Chap 8 Module 6 What is poverty? Read lists of points at beginning of chapter 8 and think about them. Poverty is multi-dimensional Poverty = the involuntary lack of sufficient resources to provide for basic necessities Everyone needs: food, shelter, water, healthcare, clothing, education, and opportunities to work and to develop the human spirit Continent with the highest number of poor people = Asia Continent with the highest proportion of poor = Africa Poverty exists in EVERY country 2
- 137. Types of Poverty There are two types of poverty Relative Poverty When someone is poor in comparison to others in their society Less severe form of poverty This is the poverty found in MDCs Absolute Poverty (Extreme Poverty) When someone lives on less than $1.25 a day Formerly we used less than $1 a day Absolute poverty means you can not meet your most basic needs Food, water, shelter Some studies and agencies use a threshold of $2 a day 3 Poverty Thresholds 4 This set of graphs shows both the total number and the percentage of people living below a certain poverty threshold. For example: Look at the $1.00 bar. 0.88 billion (880 million) people live at or below $1 a day 5.58 billion live on more than $1 a day About 15% of the world lives on less than $1 a day Poverty Thresholds (continued) Besides the World Bank thresholds, countries set their own national poverty thresholds
- 138. MDCs set much higher thresholds, since they measure relative, not absolute poverty Some LDCs set lower thresholds to hide the severity of their poverty US poverty threshold is defined as earning less than 3 X the value of the Dept. of Agriculture’s (USDA) “Thrifty Food Plan” Varies by family size (2009 thresholds) $22,050 per year for a family of four ($60.41 a day) $10,830 per year for an individual ($29.67 a day) China’s poverty threshold much lower than $1.25 a day 2009 threshold is 1,196 yuan per year or about $0.48 per day Using $0.48 a day means only 40 million live in poverty Using the higher international threshold reveals over 150 million in poverty 5 Measuring Poverty Poverty is difficult to measure on a national or global level Household surveys are the most accurate, but time-consuming and expensive Macro level statistics and averages are easier, but less valid Commonly used measures Gross Domestic Product (GDP) = the value of all goods and services produced in a national economy Gross National Income (GNI) = the sum of GDP and all monetary transfers in or out of an economy GDP & GNI are national-level statistics. They must be divided by the total number of people to produce an individual average. This is termed “per capita” Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) An adjustment to GNI, GDP, … that estimates the amount of money it takes to buy comparable goods in different countries Makes cross-country comparisons more accurate and realistic
- 139. If you are comparing incomes in different countries be sure you are using PPP! 6 GNI per capita adjusted for PPP 7 Measuring Poverty (continued) Problems with using GDP or GNI per capita These are measures of wealth, not poverty. Lacking wealth is not always the same as being poor These measure ALL formal economic activity: social goods and social “bads” all count toward GDP The informal economy is not included Important activities such as caring for children or the elderly are usually not included in GDP calculations Illegal activities are also not included These are averages. They do not take into account inequality A few wealthy individuals can skew the average and hide poverty Example: 1 millionaire in a room with 9 extremely poor people makes the average wealth in the room over $100,000. 8 Global Inequality While the US has the second widest gap between rich and poor
- 140. of any industrialized nation, the global gap between rich and poor is much greater Ratio between incomes of the richest and poorest 20% Japan 3.4 to 1 US 8.4 to1 Singapore 9.7 to 1 China 12.2 to 1 Brazil 21.8 to 1 Sierra Leone 57.6 to 1 World 85 to1 9 Better Measures of Poverty Hunger or Malnutrition The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates the proportion of people who go hungry Unfortunately, after several decades of steady improvement, a Global Food Crisis was declared in 2008. FAO reports that food prices nearly doubled from 2006 to 2008 and have fluctuated widely since. Thankfully, prices have recently stabilized 10 But still… 11
- 141. Global Number and percentage of undernourished persons We are making progress Source 12Year Number Percent of total population1990-1992 1015 million(19%)2000-2002957 million(15%)2005-2007907 million(14%)2008-2010878 million(13%)2011-2013842 million(12%) Better Measures of Poverty (continued) Human Development Index (HDI) Human development is the opposite of poverty, so high HDI = low poverty An index is a variable or statistic that is composed of two or more related variables HDI combines three measures Health (Life expectancy at birth) Education (Adult literacy and school enrollment rates) Standard of living (based on GDP per capita PPP) HDI was developed in 1990 and has been used ever since by UNDP and other agencies 13 World HDI Map 2011 14 Source
- 142. The Virtuous Circle of Poverty Reduction 15 Improved productivity Reduced birthrates Higher incomes Fewer children More education Better health Decreased poverty Make investments in healthcare and education Worker productivity increases Women gain reproductive rights Well-educated, productive workers earn more Fewer children means more household income for each individual Individuals invest in their own and children’s healthcare and education The cycle repeats Globalization & Poverty World trade has increased job opportunities in LDCs Many good jobs have been created and living standards improved in some cases But many jobs are poorly-paid, unskilled positions that trap people at subsistence-level wages leaving no money for
- 143. investments in health or education World trade has also caused the loss of low and semi-skilled positions in MDCs Solid, middleclass, manufacturing jobs of the past have been outsourced to countries with lower wages, less democratic governments, and fewer safety and environmental regulations 16 Sustainable Development Development that meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs Takes into account social and environmental costs of current development Usually leads to smaller-scale projects that involve the affected community in decision-making Realizes that many aspects of development are interconnected The chapter section on Millennium Development Goals (MDG) will be covered in a later module. 17 Fighting Poverty is Like Running a Business—sort of… Watch this video of Novogratz on Patient Capitalism Be prepared to discuss in forum. Write 4-5 paragraph summary & analysis of her presentation Be sure to discuss the following What are her main points?
- 144. How does she view the poor? What is “patient capital/capitalism?” Explain a few of her examples/success stories. Submit in Assignments 18 Jacqueline Novogratz is the founder and CEO of Acumen Fund and the author of The Blue Sweater. Acumen Fund seeks to prove that small amounts of philanthropic capital, combined with large doses of business acumen, can build thriving enterprises that serve vast numbers of the poor. Its investments focus on delivering affordable, critical goods and services – like health, water, housing and energy – through innovative, market- oriented approaches. Acumen Fund currently manages more than $40 million in investments in South Asia and East Africa, all focused on delivering affordable healthcare, water, housing and energy to the poor. (source) OECD and Development Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Australia Austria Belgium Canada Chile Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States Organization of the wealthiest countries in the world. They have come together to support anti-poverty programs and to help LDCs develop. Official Development Assistance (ODA) is what the OECD calls foreign aid (and some loans) given to other countries. OECD has repeatedly pledged to give 0.7% GNI for ODA
- 145. Actual Amount of ODA 19 Acronyms to Know Find them in the chapter, power point, or the list of acronyms on p.329 in the text Once you know what each acronym stands for, go to Assignments and complete the Acronym 4 assignment FAO GDP GNI HDI MDG OECD PPP UNDP USAID USDA 20 Assignments—due 7/19 News Summary and Analysis on Poverty Summary & Analysis of Novogratz Lecture Video Acronym 4 Assignment Module 6 Discussion in Forum 21