Vol2ch02

Dynamic Response Logistics:
Changing Environments, Technologies, And Processes
A Research Paper
Presented To
Air Force 2025
by
Dr. Craig M. Brandt
Capt Christopher J. Burke, Ph.D.
Lt Col Karen W. Currie, Ph.D.
Dr. Alan R. Heminger
Maj Terrance L. Pohlen, Ph.D.
Dr. D. Kirk Vaughan
August 1996

Disclaimer
2025 is a study designed to comply with a directive from the chief of staff of the Air
Force to examine the concepts, capabilities, and technologies the United States will
require to remain the dominant air and space force in the future. Presented on 17 June
1996, this report was produced in the Department of Defense school environment of
academic freedom and in the interest of advancing concepts related to national defense.
The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not reflect the official
policy or position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United
States government.
This report contains fictional representations of future situations/scenarios. Any
similarities to real people or events, other than those specifically cited, are unintentional
and are for purposes of illustration only.
This publication has been reviewed by security and policy review authorities, is
unclassified, and is cleared for public release.
ii

Contents
Chapter Page
Disclaimer................................................................................................................ ii
Illustrations ............................................................................................................. iv
Tables ..................................................................................................................... iv
Executive Summary................................................................................................. v
1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1
2 Changing Environments .......................................................................................... 5
Military Changes................................................................................................. 5
Business Changes ............................................................................................... 7
Logistics Changes ............................................................................................... 8
3 Changing Technologies.......................................................................................... 11
Information Technology and Systems .............................................................. 12
Packaging and Battlefield Delivery .................................................................. 17
Integrating Operations ...................................................................................... 23
4 Changing Processes ............................................................................................... 26
Materiel Requirements ..................................................................................... 27
Asset Maintenance ........................................................................................... 29
Financial Management...................................................................................... 33
5 Conclusion............................................................................................................. 36
Bibliography .......................................................................................................... 39
iii

Illustrations
Figure Page
3-1. Self-Reporting Parts via Smart Chips .................................................................... 16
3-2. Self-Repairing Parts via Rerouting Around Damaged Area of Circuit Card......... 17
3-3. Combining Packaging with a Catalyst to Produce Fuel or Food........................... 18
3-4. Battlefield Delivery System Highlighting the Container Aircraft Concept ........... 21
3-5. Container Aircraft Applied to the Agile Base Concept......................................... 22
4-1. Mobile Asset Repair Station (MARS) Concept..................................................... 32
5-1. Logistics Dynamic Relationships........................................................................... 37
Tables
Table Page
1. Evolutionary and Revolutionary Concepts ........................................................... 38
iv

Executive Summary
Logistics management is the integrated management of the functions required to
acquire, store, transport, and maintain the materiel necessary to support combat forces.
The task of the military logistician is to establish the appropriate balance among these
functions to achieve the required level of operational support while consuming the least
amount of resources. Future logistics concepts will evolve primarily from recognition of
new environments, technologies, and processes.
The use of self-repairing and self-reporting parts will greatly reduce both the
proverbial logistics “footprint” and decrease the logistics “tail.” Multiuse packaging, in
which packaging combined with a catalyst produces either a fuel or food product, will
reduce additional shipments of items into the theater of operations. The Battlefield
Delivery System (BDS) with a standard shipping container will provide a seamless
transportation system from the commercial vendor to the theater of operations.
The concept of a container aircraft will increase the flexibility of the BDS concept
and become an integral part of the agile base concept, where the container aircraft’s
cockpit becomes a command and control center with its engines providing electrical
power to the base. The Mobile Asset Repair Station (MARS) will support the
remanufacture and repair of avionics and components in the theater of operations using a
mobile facility with fully integrated flexible manufacturing systems and robotics systems
v
linked to commercial manufacturers.

Logistics operations of the future will operate under an integrated, flexible, and
seamless system from vendor to battlefield which will govern logistics decisions and
operational strategy¾a system called dynamic response logistics.
vi

Chapter 1
Introduction
Logistics, combined with strategy and tactics, will continue to shape command
planning and decisions into the future. Commanders will continue to have “the
responsibility to create, to support, and to employ combat forces.”1 Logistics will play a
major role in the command of aerospace forces through “the creation and sustained
support of weapons and forces to be tactically employed to attain strategic objectives.”2
1
As Douglas Menarchik states,
Logistics affects military strategy, military strategy affects grand strategy,
and grand strategy affects political outcomes. It raises important issues for
America’s security policy in the post-Cold War era and is worthy of
leadership interest to ensure America’s logistics is in order. America and
the international community need to pay more attention to logistics
infrastructure, doctrine and its effects on strategy, tactics and military-political
outcomes.3
A task at hand is to reduce the logistics “footprint” and decrease the size of the
logistics “tail.” This statement is easy to articulate but challenging to achieve. The
paramount goal for the military logistician in 2025 is to provide a responsive, agile
logistics system to support military operations in an effective and efficient
manner¾dynamic response logistics. A critical requirement for any logistics system in
2025 is that it operate similarly in both wartime and peacetime environments.

Logistics management is the integrated management of the functions required to
acquire, store, transport, and maintain the materiel necessary to support combat forces.
The task of the military logistician is to establish the appropriate balance among these
functions to achieve the required level of operational support while consuming the least
amount of resources. B. S. Blanchard states,
The requirement to increase overall productivity in a resource-constrained
environment has placed emphasis on all aspects of the system/product life
cycle, and logistics has assumed a major role comparable to research,
design, production, and system performance during operational use.4
Air and space missions and the requirement for specific types of logistics support will
undoubtedly change over the next 30 years. While the future remains uncertain, a
number of trends appear likely to affect the mission and logistics support areas:
· more varied, regional operations;
· potential for multiple simultaneous operations;
· increased privatization and outsourcing;
· more tightly integrated operations among the Air Force, Army, Navy, and
2
Marine Corps.
The military logistician will respond by altering and implementing evolutionary and
revolutionary logistics processes to achieve the required level of support.
Environment, technology, and process changes have enabled military and business
logisticians to significantly increase support while achieving dramatic reductions in total
cost. For example, deregulation of transportation modes in the 1970s and 1980s allowed
organizations to achieve higher levels of customer service through the trade-offs of
inventory and safety stocks for faster, less expensive, and more reliable transportation.
Changes in technology and information management have resulted in logisticians trading
“inventory for information” and using more timely information to anticipate customer
requirements. Process changes have also significantly affected logistics support by

reducing cycle and repair times, reducing nonvalue-added interfaces and transactions
occurring among logistical functions, and more clearly focusing on those activities that
3
provide the greatest value to the customer.
The environment, technology, and process innovation will continue to act as the
major agents of change within military logistics. The environment will shape logistics
practice through changes in air and space missions, resource availability, and business
logistics practice. Technological changes and improved information management will
allow the logistician to bring state-of-the-art decision making and hardware to bear on
logistical problems. Process changes will streamline the flow of materiel from source of
supply to the ultimate customer. The future logistics structure will be dominated by a
“pull” process rather than the predominate “push” process in use today.
These change agents will radically alter the activities employed by the logistician to
support the core competencies necessary for attaining the war-fighting commander’s
strategic and tactical objectives. As James Huston states in his 1966 classic The Sinews of
War, “it is no use engaging in a dream world strategy divorced from logistical
feasibility.”5 Dr. Paul G. Kaminski, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and
technology, states, “What we need is vision, leadership, commitment, and stakeholder
engagement on the part of the war fighters, logisticians, developers, and industry.”6
Notes
1 Henry E. Eccles, RAdm, USN, Military Concepts and Philosophy (New
Brunswick, N.J.: Rutgers State University, 1965), 67–82.
2 Ibid., . 67–82.
3 Douglas Menarchik, Powerlift¾Getting to Desert Storm: Strategic
Transportation and Strategy in the New World Order, (Westport, Conn.: Praeger 1993),
xiv.

4 B. S. Blanchard, Logistics Engineering and Management, 3d ed., (Englewood
4
Cliffs, N.J.: 1986), 3. Prentice-Hall, Inc.
5 James A. Huston, The Sinews of War: Army Logistics, 1775-1953, Army Historical
Series (Washington, D.C.: Office of the Chief of Military History, Department of the
Army, 1966), 663.
6 P. G. Kaminski, “The Revolution in Defense Logistics,” prepared remarks to the
12th National Logistics Symposium and Exhibition, Alexandria, Va., October 1995.

Chapter 2
Changing Environments
By the mid-1990s, changes in the environment in which military logistics operates are
already blooming. By 2025, the fruits of these changes will transform the current logistics
system into one barely recognizable as a peculiarly military system.
The environment has been especially affected by three significant changes. First, the
end of the cold war has impacted the structure of a military force which had for a
generation been prepared for a global struggle against a powerful adversary, including the
possibility of widespread nuclear war. Second, commercial business practices have
undergone major modifications as companies have focused on quality, productivity, and
international competitiveness. Finally, as a subset of business, logistics processes have
benefited from greater attention paid to customer service, leaner organizations, and
strategic alliances. All three changing areas will influence military logistics in 2025.
Military Changes
With the disappearance of the Soviet Union as the United States’ (US) central
adversary, scenarios for future wars will likely focus on ethnically and nationalistically
based regional conflicts rather than global conflicts, with the possibility of simultaneous
5

regional conflicts. Thus the US must plan for quicker, more intense, and conceivably
more lethal wars. The US may find that higher proportions of logistics needs are related
to various humanitarian missions, interspersed with brief but intense sessions of
6
supporting battlefield needs.
The US will develop dynamic response logistics support, capable of both rapidly
tailoring logistics support packages to particular circumstances and responding with
standardized kits for shorter, higher tempo operations. As recent US military operations
have shown, there will be more work with and support from allies. However, the US must
be prepared to muster a force independent of that provided by allies, either from
collateral assistance by way of direct support (troops and material) or through indirect
support (basing rights).
The growth of the joint responsibilities for many logistics functions—the roles of the
Defense Logistics Agency in supply and distribution, the Defense Contract
Administration service in contract administration, and the Defense Finance and
Accounting Service for billings and payments—demonstrates an inexorable trend toward
a unified and consolidated military logistics system. Only a systems approach to all
military logistics operations will achieve organizational harmony and interfunctional
integration to work seamlessly across the Department of Defense (DOD).
Because logistics support systems will no longer be service-, or even country-specific,
all US military systems will be supported by a joint logistics system that will also
be designed for compatibility with those systems operated by allies. Interoperability and
interchangeability will be essential not only for major system components, but also for
many of the databases and information systems used to manage materiels.

Business Changes
The environment in which US businesses operate has changed dramatically in the last
decade. A tendency toward government deregulation (especially in the transportation
and communications areas), relaxed enforcement of antitrust laws, giant strides in
telecommunications capabilities, widespread availability of computers, and an
increasingly competitive environment have all had a significant impact on the conduct of
private enterprise. Quality techniques such as “value added” have led to a reexamination
of business practices and a reengineering of processes. These efforts have led to leaner
7
and more productive organizations.
The defense industrial base in the private sector has not been spared the effects of
these trends, and downsizing in defense industries has meant the loss of thousands of jobs
since the late 1980s. When coupled with a result of the changed military environment, a
dwindling number of weapon systems are being procured, creating a question of the
viability of the US private sector manufacturing base as private defense production
becomes a riskier business. Thus, principal contractors are rapidly becoming a
conglomeration of airframe and electronics firms. This diminishing number of principal
vendors of systems and subsystems will affect numerous subcontractors in the US
industrial base, as the make-or-buy decisions of the prime contractors will lead to far
fewer suppliers in the nation for subsystems, components, and spare parts.
Although the demise of many manufacturers has helped solve the problem of
overcapacity in the industry, it is unlikely that weapon systems production will rise to the
levels required to keep even the few remaining factories operating at efficient levels.
Attempts to use foreign military sales to offset US purchases will only slightly compensate

for the decline in US military procurements. Consequently, there will be greater
competition for any work that may help keep the private industrial base alive. To avoid
an inefficient private defense sector, there will be pressures on the organic depots, which
themselves are already operating at lower levels of productivity, to release work for
privatization and outsourcing. The DOD routinely reports to Congress that outsourcing to
the commercial sector typically lowers costs by 20 percent.1 This 20 percent savings
would free over $3 billion per year for higher priority defense needs, such as those
advocated in this paper for logistics in 2025.2
Logistics Changes
New ways of doing business in logistics in the private sector have already had a
significant effect on military logistics and will continue to do so in the coming years. In a
study of firms rated excellent for their logistics practices, P. M. Byrne and W. J.
Markham observed that logistics excellence is a management imperative for the future.3
The benefits of logistics excellence, according to Byrne and Markham, are improved
quality and service levels, faster cycle times, greater efficiency and productivity, and
improved customer-company relations.4 Practically speaking, this concept has meant
developing win-win relationships with suppliers, carriers, and customers.
Logistical excellence in the future military logistics context will involve these
recurring themes from the above discussion: outsourcing, strategic alliances, flexibility,
focus on customer service, and state-of-the-art information technology. Adopting such a
scheme means that the US must extend the concept of an integrated logistics system
beyond the traditional barriers of the military logistics system to include vendors,
8

manufacturers, and the ultimate users. Many authors have commented on the need to
form strategic logistics alliances or coalitions.5
Military logistics uses a wide variety of unique systems, data, equipment, and
materiel to support its customers. Examples include inventory management and reporting
systems, military standard requisitioning and issuing procedure (MILSTRIP) formatted
requisitions, specialized equipment such as forklifts and pallets tailored to specific
aircraft, and the need for a variety of spare parts. These systems pose many problems
even during peacetime operations. The unique systems result in redundant information
systems in multiple sectors, additional time and handling of materiel, duplicate bar coding
and item identification, loss of in-transit visibility, and difficulty in identifying equivalent
parts or items due to the conversion from national stock numbers to manufacturers’ part
numbers. The system in use in 2025 must be fully integrated and streamlined with the
commercial sector. This system will allow the air and space forces to obtain information
directly on the status of inventory items at the commercial supplier.
The application of dual-use technologies will become increasingly critical to future
logistics support due to the costs associated with specialized parts. Some unique military
logistics technologies have proven costly and difficult to field, and pose significant
problems when interfacing with other military services or the civilian sector. The military
has also grown increasingly reliant on business logistics for the movement of materiel, and
logistics processes must be able to “plug and play” with the civilian distribution systems
to ensure visibility and reduce cycle time and cost.
The use of third-party suppliers of logistics that has become commonplace in the
private sector in the 1990s will continue to be an attractive alternative in 2025. This
9

concept means turning to private enterprise to provide the logistics services that have
traditionally been an organic part of the military. This movement toward privatization
will affect all military services, and as a common logistics structure will be sought to
support the reduced DOD organizational structure. Cost-based and performance-based
measures will be used as a basis for privatizing specific logistics functions. The increasing
reliance on private carriers for moving military materiel, the use of commercial items, and
the privatization of the depots are the harbingers of future logistics operations.
Notes
1 Office of Management and Budget, Enhancing Government Productivity Through
Competition: A New Way of Doing Business (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government
Printing Office, August 1988); also Center for Naval Analyses, Issues Concerning Public
and Private Provision of Depot Maintenance, Council of Resource Management 94–65
(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, April 1994).
2 Department of Defense, Directions for Defense: Report of the Commission on
Roles and Missions of the Armed Forces (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing
Office, 24 May 1995), 3–3.
3 P. M. Byrne and W. J. Markham, Improving Quality and Productivity in the
Logistics Process: Achieving Customer Satisfaction Breakthroughs, (Oak Brook, Ill.:
Council of Logistics Management, 1991).
4 Ibid.
5 D. J. Bowersox, “The Strategic Benefits of Logistics Alliances,” Harvard Business
Review no. 4 (July-August, 1990),: 36–45; also Michael Porter, Competitive Advantage:
Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance (New York,: The Free Press, 1985); also
K. Ohmae, “The Global Logic of Strategic Alliances,” Harvard Business Review 67, no. 2
(1989), 143–154.
10

Chapter 3
Changing Technologies
Technology advances will drive some of the greatest single changes to logistics in
2025. Technologies, especially in communication and data transmission, will change the
face of logistics and make possible new organizational structures. New technologies will
include many that are already in use in the civilian sector, such as FedEx’s ability to
monitor the delivery progress at the item level.1 The changes in this area will be so great
as to result in a qualitative difference in the way logistics is applied.
Integrating operations across distribution channels requires flexibility to switch
rapidly from one mode of transportation to another based on availability of transportation
and the need for assets. Inventory will be containerized and kept in motion rather than
stored in a fixed warehouse. Battlefield support of the future will depend upon both
military and commercial transportation built upon a network of standard shipping
containers utilizing automatic identification technologies and radio frequency
identification (RFI), coordinated through electronic commerce and global
11
communications capability.
A. Braithwaite and M. Christopher discuss the need for global logistics and supply
chain-management strategies, and summarize the central elements of each. They list

several factors as critically important to the development of global supply chains,
including extended supply lead times and uncertain transit times, multiple freight modes,
and opportunities to ship intermediate components for local assembly. The greatest
challenge, in their view, is to determine what information is needed for a global supply
chain strategy and to use it effectively for planning. According to Braithwaite and
Christopher, “the management of global logistics is in reality the management of
12
information flows.”2
Information Technology and Systems
Perhaps the largest change in technology affecting logistics in 2025 will involve
information technology, bringing major improvements in the management of logistics
operations. Integration of information systems across the DOD will allow integration of
logistics functions and processes across services. The changes in information technology
will enhance the ability to monitor the location and condition of materiel at whatever
level of granularity required for the given items and the situation. Information technology
changes will also permit decreased inventory through increased ability to requisition
materiel quickly as needed, while reducing the number of people to support this vital
function. Standardized, built-in marking of acquired items will be tied to information
technology to support quick identification and routing of items as satellite monitoring of
location becomes routine. Consolidated information systems will allow real-time
monitoring and routing of items.
Full visibility of the logistics pipeline, or complete supply chain visibility, will be
coupled with more sophisticated capabilities of monitoring logistics needs. This change

will result in direct delivery of needed supplies from stateside suppliers directly to the
point of use.3 The massive buildup of supplies, with a mix of known and unknown
container cargoes and needed as well as unneeded items, as seen in Operation Desert
Storm, will be a condition of the past. Better information will result in tailored delivery of
the right supplies, at the right location, at the right time, and in the right condition. This
concept will be facilitated through the use of flexible manufacturing systems (FMS)
driven by computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing (CAD/CAM).
Warehouses full of excess, obsolete assets have no place in the logistics system of the
future. This outdated concept of “just-in-case” inventory control will no longer be
feasible in constrained budgetary climates. Instead, items will be produced on demand
from information stored in databases especially designed to support FMS machine tooling
13
and set-ups, and free-form manufacturing.4
Innovative applications of the new information technologies in the areas of logistics
management will impact logistics support in 2025 at all levels of the logistics process from
how logisticians are internally organized (micro) to how they interface with other
organizations (macro). At a macro level the continuing confluence and merging of
computers and communications is changing how organizations are economically
organized. Modern information technology reduces transaction costs and hence makes it
more economical to use market forces rather than internal and organic processes to
acquire and deliver logistics support.
Information technology is also giving rise to new organizational structures referred to
as virtual corporations or networked organizations. Commerce through the Internet is
exploding as the Internet is commercialized and new economic structures (such as

electronic virtual money) are developed to facilitate such transactions. Electronic
markets are forming to facilitate the distribution of spare parts in the airline and
automobile industries. Through these developments, a more direct contact between the
units in the field (customer) and the ultimate supplier will be realized.
At the micro level, information technology is revolutionizing how logistics support is
delivered in the field. Revolutionary technologies, and their equally revolutionary
application, such as virtual reality (VR), genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic, neural networks,
and artificial intelligence robotics, will dramatically change how and where logistics
support is provided. Not only will VR be used to develop and test logistics maintenance
procedures and to train technicians, but when combined with adaptive programs in the
form of artificial intelligence, maintenance will be remotely provided with minimal direct
human involvement. These technologies combined with robotics will make space logistics
14
truly feasible.
Robots will be placed in space controlled by software that can learn and adapt as it
gains experience. This capability combined with VR can easily lead to remote
maintenance of satellites. This concept is a further adaptation and refinement of a similar
idea highlighted in SPACECAST 2020.5 Adaptive robots can, on their own, learn to
diagnose and perform most maintenance functions, and this intelligence can also be used
as a buffer (along with VR) for time lags in communications between satellite orbits and
the earth’s surface. VR would allow maintenance troops on the surface to “follow”
robotics maintenance actions instead of waiting for direct signals from space to confirm
what actions are taking place. VR would also reduce bandwidth needed; the only
required signal would indicate actions taken by the robot. Hence, there would be no need

to send visual images, because VR will provide visual realization. Reduced signal
requirements would in turn mean quicker updates and reduced time lags due to
15
processing.
Through revolutionary advances in information technology, more “smart” parts will
be developed in the future. Recent work in the area of miniaturization has highlighted the
feasibility of installing smart chips onto components.6 Smart chips built into a part will
track operating hours and current condition, as illustrated in figure 3-1. Not only will
these smart parts diagnose themselves, but they will order their own replacement parts if
the damage cannot be repaired. These “self-reporting” parts will have the capability to
determine when they are operating in a degraded mode and send a signal directly to the
commercial manufacturer who will build or ship the replacement part on demand. This
system will bypass the traditional aircrew debriefing, maintenance troubleshooting, and
supply reordering scenarios currently in practice. The feasibility of self-reporting parts is
currently being addressed and has been identified in several recent books, one by Bill
Gates, and another by Nicholas Negroponte, in which smart parts are described as active
labels.7

16
Smart chip
Aircraft in self-reporting
mode
Figure 3-1. Self-Reporting Parts via Smart Chips
New World Vistas also includes a discussion of “self-monitoring and self-healing
materials to permit in-flight battle damage repair.”8 While remote diagnoses and sensing
of maintenance problems will be possible, neural nets and parallel processing will allow
systems to reconfigure themselves around defective areas, becoming “self-repairing”
parts, as illustrated in figure 3-2. The self-repairing part has the ability to detect
degradation in performance and repair itself by eliminating the failed component from use
or rerouting its circuits around the defective area. This concept will operate as a standby
redundancy system, whereby the spare components or circuits are operated only when
required to keep the part functioning. The maintenance strategy used will be that of
nonmaintained redundancy. As such, the repair is only commenced when the part

completely fails. It will be more cost-effective to build this self-repair capability into the
parts, even with its redundant circuitry, rather than removing, repairing, and replacing
parts in a cyclic pattern over the useful life of the part.
17
Damaged circuit
removed from service
Spare circuit brought on-line
Additional spare circuits
on standby mode
Figure 3-2. Self-Repairing Parts via Rerouting Around Damaged Area of Circuit
Card
Packaging and Battlefield Delivery
Packaging material will continue to be a critical concern to future logisticians.
Packaging includes several functions such as protection, ease of handling, information
about the packaged product, stowability, temporary storage, and protection against
tampering. Future logisticians will rely on packaging which performs these basic
functions, yet does not generate disposal problems either in a peacetime or wartime
environment. Elimination of the packaging provides a significant cost reduction and the
elimination of an environmental concern. Future packaging will become more
multifunctional with one or more desirable features. Future packaging may become:

· a fuel when combined with a catalyst;
· edible when combined with a catalyst;
· biodegradable when exposed to water after adding a catalyst;
· multipurpose (for example, internal “foam” or cushion could be remolded to
accommodate different components or items¾used during retrograde
movements); and
· part of the component itself (the package and component form a modular unit
which is installed in the weapon system).
Figure 3-3 illustrates two revolutionary options for increasing the usefulness of
packaging as highlighted above. By combining the packaging with a catalyst, which could
be obtained in the particular theater of operations, a fuel or food is produced.
18
Fuel
Food
Catalyst
Packaging
Figure 3-3. Combining Packaging with a Catalyst to Produce Fuel or Food
The heavy reliance on the commercial sector and external drivers for reducing cost
will impact the DOD’s capability to deliver materiel to engaged units. Forces mobilizing

for deployment and units already deployed will move the majority of their materiel by
strategic sea lift or by the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF). These mobility components
rely heavily on the use of containerized freight to exploit handling efficiencies and to
maximize space utilization. A new Battlefield Delivery System (BDS) will deliver
containerized cargo directly to employed forces. The BDS will permit the seamless flow
of containerized materiel from point of embarkation, movement by domestic surface
carriers (rail or motor carrier), port loading, strategic sea lift, port off-loading, and
forward movement by surface or air. Containerization provides several benefits already
enjoyed by the commercial sector, including:
· reduced handling of packaged goods;
· greatly reduced pilferage and damage;
· standardized equipment available worldwide;
· movement by motor carrier, sea lift, airlift, and rail;
· ease of tracking;
· shipment of almost any good including refrigerated;
· protection from external elements;
· elimination of interior packaging; and
· portable warehousing.
The ability to move containerized materiel provides additional benefits to the
19
military. Containerized freight would:
· be modified to serve as temporary facilities (An entire air base could arrive
containerized, fitted with doors, windows, and vents. Once unloaded,
containers would become offices, quarters, shelters, and clinics);
· be stored on prepositioned ships until required; and
· be fitted to include materiel, fuel, food, vehicles, water, or any other items
within cubic constraints.
One problem faced by the military is rapid movement of materiel away from the
destination port. Arriving containers must move by surface or be unpacked for airlift
delivery. Unpacking the containers and loading the airlift adds time, equipment,

personnel, and tracking requirements to the pipeline. The BDS will eliminate these
requirements by allowing the container to move directly from the commercial supplier to
20
the point of use.
The BDS will operate within the employed theater and will be composed of an air
and ground element. The air portion of the BDS will consist of an airlifter in which a
standard shipping container, as defined by the International Standards Organization (ISO),
would become an integral structure of the fuselage. Figure 3-4 illustrates the concept of
the container aircraft. The aircraft consists of three main sections: the cockpit, the
wingbox, and the empennage. In its simplest form (short version), the aircraft is capable
of flight by joining the cockpit, wingbox, and empennage directly together. With standard
shipping containers installed between the cockpit and wingbox, and the wingbox and the
empennage, the aircraft would be configured to carry cargo (stretch version). Advanced
flight dynamics, mainly in software control for the stability of the aircraft, would control
the aircraft’s flight characteristics in both the short and stretch versions.

Figure 3-4. Battlefield Delivery System Highlighting the Container Aircraft Concept
This BDS concept can be jointly applied to the agile base concept, as illustrated in
figure 3-5. The first wave of container aircraft to arrive in a theater of operations would
be “disassembled.” The cockpit would form a command and control facility, the aircraft
engines would generate the base’s power, the wings would provide fuel storage, and the
containers themselves would provide shelter for troops, supplies, and equipment. The
containers would integrate with the structure 2025 concept being proposed as a portable
base shelter. This concept will provide a mobile base to redeploy as the combat situation
21
dictates.

Figure 3-5. Container Aircraft Applied to the Agile Base Concept
The ground portion of the BDS consists of trucks, trailers, and forklifts capable of
handling the containers and moving them to staging areas and then to forward deployed
units. Development of a truck-trailer with the ability to lift the container without
additional material handling equipment will further streamline the process. This concept
is defined as demountable loads, in which a vehicle can off-load and pick up its own
cargo body bed instead of just its cargo, allowing for rapid vehicle turn-around times. A
smaller version of this proposed truck-trailer is currently in use by most western armies.9
The BDS will allow the DOD to use commercial carriers for strategic sea lift as well
as domestic transportation. The standardized containerized concept allows a seamless
movement from source of supply to the battlefield with minimal handling, reduced time,
22

and increased visibility. The BDS provides the same capability whether supporting
employed combat forces or providing humanitarian assistance to remote locations. The
BDS enables all military services to use any combination of the four pillars of strategic
mobility—strategic airlift, strategic sea lift, domestic surface movement, and
prepositioning—to move containerized materiel.
Integrating Operations
As D. J. Bowersox et al. noted, “The main strength of logistics results from treating
system components on an integrated basis. . . . A systems orientation stands in direct
contrast to the traditional approach of treating the activities of logistical management on a
separate or diffused basis.”10 The cost of supporting complex systems in the future
coupled with a constrained resource environment means that logistics systems must be
integrated. Stand-alone, service-specific logistics systems will be too costly.
Total Asset Visibility (TAV) is a current initiative being developed by the US Army
designed to link all components of the DOD logistics system into a coherent whole using a
comprehensive information management and communications system. The goal of TAV
is to provide real-time information regarding the quantity, location, and condition of DOD
assets anywhere and at any time.11 The commercial concept of TAV is total supply chain
visibility. The difficulties and costs of linking the various information systems operated
by the separate military services prevent the goals of TAV from being achieved in the
near future; however, the need for logistical excellence and continued rapid advances in
information technology in the future will eventually overcome these parochial barriers.
TAV will allow the customer to obtain real-time knowledge of the status of any
23

requisition in the logistics system. TAV will serve as a high-tech “hot line” between the
24
customer and the source of supply.
Knowing the status of any requisition in the system and having confidence in the
accuracy of that status will eliminate the need for duplicate requisitions and a large buffer
stock. In most cases, the requisition will not be initiated by a human worker but will be
generated automatically as previously described as self-reporting parts. Instead of
maintaining databases on inventory, information systems will conduct a worldwide poll to
find status, location, and quantity on an as-needed basis from the battlefield to the
commercial supplier. The request for a replacement part will be transmitted to the system
node responsible for providing that part, either from inventory or from on-demand
manufactures. It is likely that these supply nodes will be vendor-operated and mobile. In
all instances, successful logistics support will be the product of advanced information
technology, strategic alliances between the government and suppliers, and the flexibility
to meet customer needs.
Notes
1 Fedex, http://www.fedex.com/pr/NetShip3_13_96.html, 11 April 1996.
2 A. Braithwaite, and M. Christopher, “Managing the Global Pipeline,” The
International Journal of Logistics Management 2, no. 2 (1991): 55–62.
3 USAF Scientific Advisory Board, New World Vistas: Air and Space Power for the
21st Century, summary volume (Washington, D.C.: USAF Scientific Advisory Board, 15
December 1995), 31.
4 New World Vistas, (unpublished draft, the materials volume), 69.
5 SPACECAST 2020, vol. 1 (Maxwell AFB, Ala.: Air University, June 1994), K-15.
6 Nicholas Negroponte, Being Digital, (New York: Vintage Books, 1995), 146, 210.
7 Ibid., 209; also Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, (New York: Viking, 1995), 9.
8 New World Vistas, (unpublished draft, the materials volume), 69.
9 P. D. Foxton, Powering War: Modern Land Force Logistics (London: Brassey’s,
1994), 58.

10 D. J. Bowersox, “The Strategic Benefits of Logistics Alliances,” Harvard
Business Review 68, no. 4 (July-August 1990): 36–45.
11 Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Logistics), Total Asset Visibility Conference
Program Brochure (Washington, D.C.: American Defense Preparedness Association, 9
March 1994).
25

Chapter 4
Changing Processes
In the next 30 years, the processes that are used by logisticians will dramatically
change. These changes will be driven by environmental and technological changes, as
previously described, but will also result from the implementation of revolutionary new
logistics techniques. This section highlights some of the changing processes that will
impact logistics in 2025. B. K. Ellram and M. C. Cooper identified the principal question
of supply chain management as where in the supply chain to hold inventory. This
decision is based on timely, accurate flow of information. “Clearly, exchanging
information for inventory is central to the supply chain management concept.”1
A logistics support system superior to that fielded by the opponent can provide the
difference between success and failure. Superior customer service in the military context
means the logistics system in place supports requirements determination and forecasting
processes that deliver exactly the items required, exactly where and when required. This
concept is called dynamic response logistics. The commander of 2025 will provide the
what, when, and where information to a logistics system which will rapidly respond to
such a request. The future logistics structure will be dominated by a “pull” process rather
than the predominate “push” process in use today. However, a combination of the two
26

processes will be employed. Baseline materiel (for common mission requirements) will be
pushed while specialized material (for tailored mission requirements) will be pulled.
Materiel Requirements
The materiel acquisition system will change dramatically to meet the needs in the
next 30 years. To the extent possible, materiel will be procured on demand with direct
delivery to the user by the vendor. Outside contractors will be an integral part of the
DOD purchasing system and will have direct access to both consumable and reparables
demand information. Visibility into projected requirements provided to vendors through
long-term contractual relationships will allow vendors to manufacture and distribute
components based on projected requirements, current demand history, and repair
capability. Furthermore, commercial carriers will project freight movements based on the
manufacturer's projected production date and DOD need dates.
Coordination will entail improved methods of contracting, especially in the use of
systems contracting or blanket-order agreements. The trend will be toward fewer
suppliers with longer contract periods, rather than contracting on a single-order basis.
The contracting function of the future will be expedited, requiring much less daily
oversight after the establishment of the initial system between the commercial supplier
and the DOD. In connection with increasing the reliance on local purchase, bases will
procure with blanket contracts negotiated at a wholesale level, thus avoiding a contracting
27
burden at the local level.
With on-line buying a reality, the contracting officer will receive quotes and place
orders rapidly. Where centrally negotiated blanket-order agreements for large numbers of

items are arranged, it will be possible for the ultimate user to order directly from the
vendor without the intervention of a contracting officer every time an item is ordered.
Currently, orders using MILSTRIP are routed to a source of supply which is normally a
military inventory control point; in 2025, orders will be routed directly to a private
vendor. Building speed into the logistics system refers to the necessity to translate
customer requirements into the completed system or spare parts as swiftly as possible. As
product life cycles continue to shrink, the need to combine concurrent engineering with
advanced information technology becomes more important. New systems will be built
using as much commercial-off-the-shelf and nondevelopmental item equipment as
28
possible.
Further extension of this interface between the commercial supplier and the military
will dramatically reduce the need for the current supply structure. Ultimately, there will
be no clear distinction between wholesale and retail supply operations, and a fusion of the
two systems will occur. Through the process of commercial suppliers using rapid delivery
methods to send parts on demand from direct interface with demand information and self-reporting
parts information, there will be a decreased number of line items held in
inventory. Hence, the holding of inventory at depots will be minimized, dramatically
decreasing holding costs. Decreasing inventory will also result in a reduction of the
storage and transportation infrastructure at the base level. The days of oversized
warehouses, strictly for storing inventory, are quickly passing, and it is likely that the
consolidation of warehouses already underway in the mid-1990s will continue.
New information systems will be needed to cope with these changes. Asset visibility
of materiel held in stock will remain important even as these stocks disappear, while in-

transit visibility requirements will continue to increase. Communication systems will be
integrated with those of private carriers and with suppliers to provide the visibility of
items required. War plans based on major regional conflicts will result in commercial
cargo carriers carrying the bulk of cargo to a hub just outside the conflict zone, with DOD
aircraft responsible for hub-to-battle zone movements. The future of transportation, with
a greater reliance on vendor-to-user shipments of materiel, will decrease the need to
arrange secondary transportation. Hence, the control of secondary transportation will be
greatly eliminated. However, this same phenomenon will result in greater tracking
difficulties, expanding requirements for in-transit visibility.
Asset Maintenance
The landscape of asset maintenance will dramatically change in the next 30 years.
Over the past several decades, the lead time for new weapon systems has become
increasingly protracted, due to the increasing complexity of modern weapon systems and
the complexities of acquisition procedures. Therefore, weapon systems are likely to
change less than supporting technologies and the ways in which those weapon systems
29
are used.
The number of uninhabited aerial weapon system platforms will continue to increase.
This feature alone will decrease the number of environmental systems required for
aircrew safety. The use of modular components and the extensive use of software-controlled
avionics will require maintenance practices that repair software malfunctions.
The future maintainer will repair weapon systems using maintenance computers talking to
the weapon system computers, rather than using the traditional hardware wrench-turning

methods in use today. Improved reliability of a smaller number of weapon systems means
that fewer repairs will be necessary. Advances in weapon systems and on-board
equipment will undoubtedly continue to become more reliable, thus consuming fewer
30
logistics resources.
Improved maintainability, which has resulted from attention to acquisition logistics,
will result in a smaller maintenance burden. Sophisticated test equipment required for
modern maintenance will be more mobile. The Multifunction Aerospace Support System
(MASS) is one design currently undergoing evaluation. MASS is envisioned to replicate
the functions of nine types of current flight-line support equipment resulting in a
substantial reduction in the deployment footprint.2 By outsourcing repairs to the
commercial sector, the base maintenance function will attempt to reduce overhead costs.
Therefore, weapon systems will be designed with two-level repair in mind, and remove-and-
replace will be the preeminent technique of local repairs. With the advent of self-repairing
parts, and self-reporting parts, component maintenance will be radically
redefined. Due to the decreasing failure rate of parts, repairs and remanufacturing of
failed parts will occur at commercial firms.
The future of depot-level maintenance will be affected by the dwindling number of
weapon systems being procured. Decreasing numbers of weapon systems will mean
decreasing numbers of systems and subsystems. Required maintenance tasks will affect
the viability of the private sector manufacturing base. To keep the remaining contractors
alive, repair work will be consigned to private industry at the expense of organic depots.
The DOD will be unable to afford the infrastructure of trained personnel, specialized
equipment, publications, and data for the relatively small number of repairs that will be

accomplished. Increased use of private firms for logistics support will decrease the
number of DOD personnel associated with logistics. The DOD annually reports to
Congress that at least 250,000 civilian employees are performing commercial-type
activities that could be performed by competitively selected private companies.3
Self-repairing parts and the evolution of increased reliability will change the nature of
the component repair process. No longer will large quantities of parts migrate back to the
depot for repair. Instead, the commercial sector will process those parts that fail and
require repair or remanufacturing. In wartime, replacement parts will be repaired or
manufactured in the theater of operations for a variety of deployed weapon systems
through the Mobile Asset Repair Station (MARS). MARS, as illustrated in figure 4-1, is a
concept whereby parts can be repaired or manufactured using a mobile facility which can
be land-based or water-based in or near the theater of operations, but out of harm’s way.
The facility features a set of fully-integrated flexible manufacturing systems and robotics
systems that are linked to the commercial manufacturers. These manufacturers supply
the specifications to the FMS which then produces the part or component. Many of the
required materials necessary for MARS to manufacture the components will be obtained
31
from local countries.

Figure 4-1. Mobile Asset Repair Station (MARS) Concept
MARS will reduce current repair and manufacture turn-around times by days for a
number of avionics and mechanical components from a variety of weapon systems.
Although the actual logistics tail has not been reduced in length, what flows through the
tail has changed. Instead of transporting failed and serviceable avionics and components
(atoms), information will be transmitted (bits and bytes).4 A drawback to “Desert
Express,” which transported critical reparable parts daily from the US to the Gulf, was
that it required a significant allocation of scarce airlift, with two dedicated aircraft and
several spare aircraft stationed along the route at various US and European bases.5
32

Financial Management
Financial management systems within the DOD will certainly change in the next 30
years. Future financial management systems will possess three capabilities:
· assignment of direct and indirect costs to specific logistics activities,
· translation of management action into the effect on total costs, and
· integration of logistics financial information with other logistics and financial
33
management systems.
Future cost management systems will require the capability to assign direct and
indirect costs to specific logistics functions and subsequently to the product, customer, or
weapon system receiving logistic support. Many financial systems already possess the
capability to assign direct costs to the activities being performed; however, direct costs
will represent a significantly lower proportion of total costs as logistics incorporates more
and more technology-based processes.
As direct costs shrink in their relative importance and magnitude, indirect resources
will continue to grow in total dollars and management focus. Manufacturing firms have
already encountered this phenomenon. Direct labor represented about 85 percent of total
costs when traditional cost management systems were designed in the 1920s. However,
automation and technology applications have replaced direct labor with many indirect
cost functions. Direct costs in many firms today represent only 16 percent of total costs,
but the traditional cost systems continue to use direct labor as the principal means for
assigning indirect costs.6
Currently, using direct costs as an allocation tool creates these challenges for DOD
logistics managers:

· Since unit-based allocation suggests costs vary with volume, managers cannot
accurately determine how changes in customer service affect total costs.
· There is no reward for reducing indirect cost categories¾benefits are diffused
34
across all products.
· Although costs appear to be reduced by eliminating direct labor, they really
are not because proportionately the majority of total costs are attributed to
indirect costs.
· While overhead costs appear fixed and not affected by management action, in
fact, they can be affected through the application of appropriate management
practices.
· Rewards, which should be based on cost center performance, become
dependent on total product, customer, and channel profitability.
The assignment of indirect costs to logistics activities will require a means for tracing
indirect labor and other logistics resources to the activities performed. The tracing of
resources provides the total cost of performing individual activities or, by summing
activity costs, the costs of different processes. Future cost management systems will be
capable of tracing indirect labor hours, depreciation, training, supervision, data
processing, information system costs, and other indirect cost categories to logistics
activities.
The resulting activity information will provide significant advantages over
conventional cost management systems. Activity-based cost information can:
· more accurately determine how changes in logistics service requirements will
affect total costs,
· provide ability to trace indirect resources to logistics activities and the cost of
their outputs,
· focus on high-cost activities or processes,
· translate logistics performance into cost measures or weapon system
availability,
· provide greater visibility over logistics costs¾better trade-offs within DOD,
and
· simulate changes and impact on logistics costs.
Cost information at the activity level will enable logistics managers to determine the
cost per output of each logistics activity as well as the costs of supporting specific weapon

systems. The ability to accurately determine activity costs provides the cost information
necessary for making smart trade-offs within an integrated logistics system.
Logistics and financial management systems will require significant integration to
better support management decision making. Current systems frequently send conflicting
signals to DOD managers. These systems use different data to report inventory balances
and financial status, do not interface well with one another, and use a large number of
interfaces with numerous support systems with inaccurate or “dirty” data. The reports
are focused on the expenditure of funds or tracking labor hours rather than on activity
costs or management performance. Future systems will use a single database, capable of
accepting updates from many users. A single, integrated database will eliminate many of
the discrepancies between systems and data inaccuracies. Design of the database and
management systems will be developed with supporting management decision making,
and not financial reporting, as its principal objective.
Notes
1 B. K. Ellram and M. C. Cooper, “Supply Chain Management, Partnerships, and the
Shipper-Third Party Relationship,” The International Journal of Logistics Management
1, no. 2 (1990): 1–10.
2 E. Boyle, T. Matthew and Lt Col D. Smoot, “Rethinking Support Equipment,” Air
Force Journal of Logistics, Fall 1995, 28–31.
3 Department of Defense, Report on the Performance of DoD Commercial Activities
(Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 30 January 1995), 5.
4 Nicholas Negroponte, Being Digital (New York: Vintage Books, 1995), 13.
5 Douglas Menarchik, Powerlift¾Getting to Desert Storm: Strategic
Transportation and Strategy in the New World Order, (Westport, Conn.: Praeger 1993),
145–146.
6 Jeffrey G. Miller and Thomas E. Vollman, “The Hidden Factory,” Harvard
Business Review, September-October 1985, 142–150.
35

Chapter 5
Conclusion
Logistics in 2025 will operate in a vastly different landscape than exists now.
Changes affecting logistics will occur in environments, technologies, and processes
leading toward the development of dynamic response logistics. Environments will change
in the military, business, and logistics sectors. Technologies will change in information
technology and systems, packaging and battlefield delivery, and integrating operations.
Processes will change in materiel requirements, asset maintenance, and financial
36
management.
These changes will attest to the fact that the dynamic relationships among logistics
elements, illustrated in figure 5-1, will reshape the future structures of logistics. These
dynamic relationships will be formed through a combination of synergy and balancing
activities among logistics elements. Logisticians recognize that numerous trade-offs will
occur between logistics processes. Rapid transportation allows for frequent inventory
replenishment, thereby lowering inventory levels and reducing the need for fewer and
smaller warehouses. Precise delivery of information will reduce the uncertainty
associated with inventory and lead to the reduction of safety stocks.

37
Organic
Repair
Weapon System
Availability
Order
Processing
Information
Systems
Warehousing Inventory
Commercial
Repair
Organic
Transportation
Commercial
Transportation
Figure 5-1. Logistics Dynamic Relationships
Table 1 lists the evolutionary and revolutionary concepts developed in this study.
Logistics operations of the future will operate under an integrated logistics system, or
“supply chain management,” which will govern logistics decisions and operations.
Logisticians of the future will become aware of the entire “bench-to-battle” sequence of
interactions which will deliver the needed item rapidly and efficiently. Logistics decisions
in one area will be made with a recognition of their impact in other areas as well.
Increasingly, an awareness of the cost of logistics trade-offs will impact logistics decision
making, especially in the notion of trading inventory for information: information is
cheap, while inventory is expensive. Future cost management systems capable of
accurately assigning costs to logistics activities will permit effective cost trade-offs and
reduce total logistics costs while enabling logisticians to target high-cost activities or
support processes for reengineering action or privatization.

Table 1
Evolutionary and Revolutionary Concepts
Evolutionary Revolutionary
· Rapid response logistics · Self-repairing & -reporting parts
· Privatization & outsourcing · Multifunctional packaging
· Stronger military & commercial alliances · Container aircraft
· Complete supply chain visibility · Wholesale & retail fusion
· Activity-based cost information · Mobile Asset Repair Station (MARS)
The revolutionary concepts developed in this study are within US technological
capability of the next 30 years. The use of self-repairing and self-reporting parts will
greatly reduce both the proverbial logistics “footprint” and decrease the logistics “tail.”
Multiuse packaging, in which packaging combined with a catalyst produces either a fuel
or food product, will reduce the additional shipments of those items into the theater of
operations. The BDS with a standard shipping container will provide for a seamless
transportation system from the commercial vendor to the theater of operations. The
container aircraft will increase the flexibility of the BDS concept and integrate into the
agile base concept. The fusion of the wholesale and retail logistics structures will provide
for a streamlined flow of goods and equipment and complete supply chain visibility.
Logistics will move from a just-in-case system to dynamic response logistics.
38

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