scarcity?
Water Scarcity
“Water is life”
Prof Kader Asmal, Chairman, World Commission on
Dams

“Whiskey is for drinking, water is for fightin’
over”
Mark Twain, commenting on water conflicts in the
American Midwest

“We have one common goal: to provide water
security in the 21st Century”
Ministerial Declaration of The Hague, World Water
Forum, April 2002
What is Scarcity?
Water shortage, water scarcity, and water
stress are three terms used in the
discussion of how to meet human water
needs
What is Scarcity?
Assuming a minimum need for renewable water
per person of 1,000 cubic meters:
20 countries, mostly in the Middle East and North Africa
(MENA), are at or below this level now

At 2,000 cubic meters per person:
water is potentially a serious constraint, especially in
drought years, and about 40 countries fall in this
range, according to the FAO.

While these may be reasonable benchmarks for
water shortage, the issue really is one of supply
and demand, and so scarcity is a relative term
What is Scarcity?
From a water planning perspective, it is
argued that
– shortage is absolute
– scarcity is relative
– stress is a sign of approaching scarcity or
shortage

For example, Tunisia and Kenya both have
water availability less than 1000 m3 per
capita, but demand is less than supply
What is Scarcity?
Regardless of definition, in most areas:
– demand is increasing faster than supply
– so scarcity is increasing
Measures of Scarcity
Stress
Level

Description

People
competing for a
million m3 of
water

Water
availability per
capita
(1000s m3)

1

Water surplus

< 200

>5

2

Water management

200 - 600

1.67 – 5.0

problems
3

Water stress

600 - 1000

1.0 - 1.67

4

Absolute scarcity

1000 - 2000

0.5 – 1.67

5

Beyond water
barrier

> 2000

<0.5

Source: Falkenmark, 1989
Measures of Scarcity

Source: UNEP, 2002
Measures of Scarcity
Stress Level

Description

Demand/Supply

1

Low

< 0.1 or 10%

2

Moderate

0.1 to 0.2

3

Medium-high

0.2 to 0.4

4

High

> 0.4 or 40%
Source: UN/WMO, 1997
Causes of Scarcity

(assuming climate is constant)
•
•
•
•
•

Agriculture
Domestic water use
Industrial water use
Pollution
Climate change
Causes of Scarcity

Source: Gleick et al., 2001
Pollution

Source: Gleick et al., 2001
Pollution

Percent population without access to
adequate sanitation services

Source: Gleick et al., 2001
Morbidity and Mortality from
Water-related diseases

Source: Gleick et al., 2001
Morbidity and Mortality from
Water-related diseases

Source: Gleick et al., 2001
Types of Scarcity
• First order scarcity
– a physical shortage of water

• Second order scarcity
– an institutional inability to satisfy demand
or deliver clean water

• None of the maps shown take account
of second order scarcity
Drop in Groundwater Level
Impacts of groundwater
over-pumping
•
•
•
•

Increased costs
Decreased water quality
Loss of farmland
Subsidence
Subsidence
Subsidence
1952

1985

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Water file1-1

  • 2. Water Scarcity “Water is life” Prof Kader Asmal, Chairman, World Commission on Dams “Whiskey is for drinking, water is for fightin’ over” Mark Twain, commenting on water conflicts in the American Midwest “We have one common goal: to provide water security in the 21st Century” Ministerial Declaration of The Hague, World Water Forum, April 2002
  • 3. What is Scarcity? Water shortage, water scarcity, and water stress are three terms used in the discussion of how to meet human water needs
  • 4. What is Scarcity? Assuming a minimum need for renewable water per person of 1,000 cubic meters: 20 countries, mostly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), are at or below this level now At 2,000 cubic meters per person: water is potentially a serious constraint, especially in drought years, and about 40 countries fall in this range, according to the FAO. While these may be reasonable benchmarks for water shortage, the issue really is one of supply and demand, and so scarcity is a relative term
  • 5. What is Scarcity? From a water planning perspective, it is argued that – shortage is absolute – scarcity is relative – stress is a sign of approaching scarcity or shortage For example, Tunisia and Kenya both have water availability less than 1000 m3 per capita, but demand is less than supply
  • 6. What is Scarcity? Regardless of definition, in most areas: – demand is increasing faster than supply – so scarcity is increasing
  • 7. Measures of Scarcity Stress Level Description People competing for a million m3 of water Water availability per capita (1000s m3) 1 Water surplus < 200 >5 2 Water management 200 - 600 1.67 – 5.0 problems 3 Water stress 600 - 1000 1.0 - 1.67 4 Absolute scarcity 1000 - 2000 0.5 – 1.67 5 Beyond water barrier > 2000 <0.5 Source: Falkenmark, 1989
  • 9. Measures of Scarcity Stress Level Description Demand/Supply 1 Low < 0.1 or 10% 2 Moderate 0.1 to 0.2 3 Medium-high 0.2 to 0.4 4 High > 0.4 or 40% Source: UN/WMO, 1997
  • 10. Causes of Scarcity (assuming climate is constant) • • • • • Agriculture Domestic water use Industrial water use Pollution Climate change
  • 11. Causes of Scarcity Source: Gleick et al., 2001
  • 13. Pollution Percent population without access to adequate sanitation services Source: Gleick et al., 2001
  • 14. Morbidity and Mortality from Water-related diseases Source: Gleick et al., 2001
  • 15. Morbidity and Mortality from Water-related diseases Source: Gleick et al., 2001
  • 16. Types of Scarcity • First order scarcity – a physical shortage of water • Second order scarcity – an institutional inability to satisfy demand or deliver clean water • None of the maps shown take account of second order scarcity
  • 18. Impacts of groundwater over-pumping • • • • Increased costs Decreased water quality Loss of farmland Subsidence