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Web 4.0 (or, The Importance of R&D)
by Russell Cavell – Group Technical Director
@russellcavell
November 2011
Web 4.0 (or The importance of R&D)
Questions?




(http://cdn3.digitaltrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/bing-logo-with-google-colors-question-mark.jpg)
Why not Google?
                                                                                                   Searches    Google   Bing


                                                                                            100%
                                                                                                              90%




                                                                                                                               3%

                                                                                                        Market Share




(http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2008/05/Top_European_Search_Engines)
Bing-cause things change…
                                                                                                                               Searches    Google   Bing


                                                                                                                        100%



                                                                                                                                          65%



                                                                                                                                                           30%




                                                                                                                                    Market Share




(http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/5/comScore_Releases_April_2011_U.S._Search_Engine_Rankings)
Web 4.0?

4?

What the !*$# happened to Web 2.0?
Web 2.0 (Social Islands) & Web 3.0 (Social Data)




(http://www.briansolis.com/)
Web 4.0 – AAA (Anytime, Anyplace, Any device)




                                        30 million members in the UK
                                          1 in 4 minutes online time
                                           40% via a mobile device
                                        20% solely via mobile device
(Dec 2010 to January 2011, Facebook )
Web 4.0 – AAA (Anytime, Anyplace, Any device)




       The volume of mobile users will
       outstrip the number of desktop
           internet users by 2014
Web 4.0 – AAA (Anytime, Anyplace, Any device)




   Demand for tablets is likely to reach
          100 million by 2012
Web 4.0 – AAA (Anytime, Anyplace, Any device)




   In 2011, the US market will own more
    smartphones than ordinary phones
Web 4.0 – AAA (Anytime, Anyplace, Any device)




   In 2009, eBay posted $600 million in
       mobile commerce revenues.
        In 2010, it was $1.5 billion.
OK, so what does this all mean?
(http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/5/comScore_Releases_April_2011_U.S._Search_Engine_Rankings)
(http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2011/5/comScore_Releases_April_2011_U.S._Search_Engine_Rankings)
The hockey puck graph of mobile growth




(http://www.opera.com/smw/2011/01/ - January 2011, Opera Software & http://my.opera.com/matzeatweb/albums/showpic.dml?album=904567&picture=12372283 )
The ‘mobile’ has evolved…




(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xm-_gbmcM4)
Stop thinking solely about these…




(http://image.made-in-china.com/2f0j00KCsEjZRWHait/Desktop-Computer-D4300-.jpg)
…and static designs like these…




(Russell Cavell 2011)
…and start thinking about devices like these…




(http://giroapp.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/ipad-1.jpeg; http://theapplegoogle.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/iphone-4-verizon.png; http://cdn7.global14.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/motorola-
zoom.jpg; http://www.mobiletogoblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/BlackBerry-Torch-9800_2.jpg; http://www.mrgeekgadgets.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/nokia_n8.png; )
...so that beautiful creative like this…




(http://mediaqueri.es)
…is viewed perfectly on multiple devices…
          Smartphone     Tablet   Netbook   Desktop
            320px        768px    1024px    1600px




(http://mediaqueri.es)
Smartphone     Tablet   Netbook   Desktop
            320px        768px    1024px    1600px




(http://mediaqueri.es)
Smartphone     Tablet   Netbook   Desktop
            320px        768px    1024px    1600px




(http://mediaqueri.es)
Smartphone     Tablet   Netbook   Desktop
            320px        768px    1024px    1600px




(http://mediaqueri.es)
Smartphone     Tablet   Netbook   Desktop
            320px        768px    1024px    1600px




(http://mediaqueri.es)
Smartphone     Tablet   Netbook   Desktop
            320px        768px    1024px    1600px




(http://mediaqueri.es)
Web 4.0 (or The importance of R&D)
Web 4.0 (or The importance of R&D)
Web 4.0 (or The importance of R&D)
Web 4.0 (or The importance of R&D)
Web 4.0 – AAA (Anytime, Anyplace, Any device)



       • UI needs to be designed to be used with
         fingers, rather than a mouse.
       • Bandwidth limitations must be considered
         for the time being.




(Jacob Gube, Six Revisions 2011)
Ok, so AAA will look nice, but what can it do?
HTML 5 & CSS 3.0




(Legoland)
HTML 5 & CSS 3.0




(http://www.gatewaybmw.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/bmw-logo-history-950x701.jpg)
HTML 5 & CSS 3.0




(Bon Jovi)
HTML 5 & CSS 3.0




?
HTML 5 & CSS 3.0




(https://mozillademos.org/demos/dashboard/demo.html)
HTML 5 & CSS 3.0




(https://demos.mozilla.org/en-US/#planetarium)
HTML 5 & CSS 3.0




(http://www.chromeexperiments.com/detail/webgl-water-simulation/)
HTML 5 & CSS 3.0




(http://www.thewildernessdowntown.com/)
HTML 5 & CSS 3.0




(www.publicischemistry.com + http://blog.mozilla.com/tilt/)
HTML 5 & CSS 3.0




(Russell Cavell, 2009)
SVG (Scalable Vector Graphics)




(http://jsdo.it/event/svggirl)
And big business?
eCommerce Evolved




        Shoppers in the UK spent £4.9 billion
        online during February 2011, up 20%
                from February 2010

(NMA)
mCommerce




(http://www.socialmobile.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/marks-and-spencer-mobile-web.jpg)
mCommerce




        23% of UK online consumers
           conducted some kind of
        mobile transaction last year
          (that’s 10,000,000 of us)
(NMA)
mCommerce




        41% of retailers expect mobile
             to be as popular as
          ecommerce within 2 years

(NMA)
mCommerce




        42% have a strategy at various stages
            of development, and a further
          30% plan to develop m-commerce

(NMA)
mCommerce




                 90% of UK Adults will purchase Xmas
                     shopping online this year.

                      23% will use a smartphone or tablet
(Rackspace Customer Communication 23/11/2011 “Gone in 10 Seconds”)
Any other platforms?
F Commerce




(Facebook)
F Commerce




(Facebook)
Crystal ball time…
CLI (30 years ago)




(My Laptop)
GUI (20 years ago)




(http://www.realact.net/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/IntroducingthenewWindows7GUI_D9B6/Windows7DesktopBuild6933.png; http://www.guidebookgallery.org/pics/gui/desktop/firstrun/macosx101.png)
NUI (0 years ago)




(http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/presskits/surfacecomputing/images/image002.jpg)
Microsoft Surface




(http://traveltrendspotter.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/microsoft-surface.jpg)
Microsoft Surface (Version 2)




(http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/events/ces/images/2011/Samsung_SUR40_product_print.jpg)
Windows 8 will rule the world. Next year. (probably)
Windows 8 METRO (across all platforms)
NUI Demo
Look mum, no hands! (NUI Demo)
Putting it all together, with added blue sky thinking to boot.
In Summary

 - Things change
 - Adaptive Design, Cloud,
 - Platforms – Not just desktops
 - HTML5 / CSS3 (Cross platform and device)
 - Different Interactions / Interfaces
So, why do you think R&D is so important?

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Web 4.0 (or The importance of R&D)

Editor's Notes

  • #4: If you have any questions – please ask – this is a conversation, not a lesson.
  • #5: Why did I choose Bing back there? Simply to illustrate that this graphis the perception that everyone has of Google’s market dominance– except this graph is May 2008
  • #6: And this is April 2011 – things change, and that is what we need to bear in mind at all times while working with web technologies.
  • #8: Social islands where individual sites, all competing. Web 3.0 was when they all started to work together, such as Bing using social to power it’s search results.
  • #17: For a geeky upgrade to a mobile devices, this is an alarming growth curve. 100 million+ downloads, with the majority inside of a year!
  • #18: And this is why mobile is growing – because they are no longer just phones – there are the whole internet plus a number of other technological devices in one, in your pocket.(http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Xm-_gbmcM4)
  • #20: As nice as they are – they do not work on mobiles. We need to stop making web site like these, RIGHT NOW.
  • #32: Try it – go to http://www.publicischemistry.com and just make you browser different widths to see adapative design work right there in front of your eye’s
  • #33: Your finger is a lot larger than a mouse cursor, so buttons need to be biggerMake sure all site images & video is optimised for various bandwidths, remove large carousels etc.
  • #35: IE9 - http://topgear.cloudapp.net/default.aspx
  • #36: IE9 - http://www.joydefinesthefuture.com/
  • #37: IE9 - http://director.bonjovi.com/
  • #38: IE9 - http://www.nevermindthebullets.com
  • #39: FF -
  • #40: FF - http://mozillademos.org/demos/planetarium/demo.html 
  • #41: Chrome - http://www.chromeexperiments.com/detail/webgl-water-simulation/
  • #42: Chrome - http://www.thewildernessdowntown.com/
  • #43: FF – “Tilt” extension demo
  • #44: Chrome -http://www.ro.me/
  • #45: IE9 -http://jsdo.it/event/svggirl
  • #46: So they were all a little bit of fun – how is the real work using mobile and new web development technologies?
  • #48: M&S, amongst others, are milesinfront of most major retailers when it comes to mobile.
  • #57: CLI – static interface, feels disconnected, simple and unhelpful – you need to be an expert
  • #58: GUI – responsive, exploratory, recognition, feel comfortable and you learn quickly. One product flows into another.
  • #59: NUI – Evocative, unmediated, contextual, intuitive – based on objects
  • #60: This is the point at which Apple went one way and Microsoft the other. The surface was revolutionary only a few years ago – now it’s an antique.
  • #61: And Version 2 – due very soon – is more like a tablet on legs – or is it a TV on legs?
  • #62: However, I think they have right. This is Windows 8 – it looks just like Windows 7, until…
  • #63: Until, you use the same operating system and program on any platform you like, desktop, mobile, tablet. This is the “touch” interface of Windows 8. This same interface will be used on tablets, Windows 8 (and 7) phones, as well as the desktop, and even the Xbox.On the desktop you can switch between the “normal windows” and this interface whenever you wish. In Summary, one OS, one interface, one platform. Use any program anywhere and plug it all together with the cloud.
  • #65: At this point I gave a live demonstration using an Xbox Kinect setup as a mouse to drive the rest of the presentation simply by moving my arms, instead of clicking through the slides.The demo also showed off speech control that didn’t require any prior training.
  • #66: Things change – mobile devices & their growth, adaptive design with HTML5 & CSS3Windows 8, Kinect and the cloud are all blue sky thinking, but could be a real game changer if it works as we hope it will.