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What in the world is going on?Aaron FykeFounder and President
FrameworkHot – Global warming due to greenhouse gasesFlat – Everyone else is getting richerCrowded – And there are a lot more of us
Percent Job Losses in Recessions
Hot
What in the world is going on web
Today’s CO2 ConcentrationAfter 45 More Years of current energy use patterns600500400300280260240CO2 ConcentrationCO2 [ppmv]2202001800 °CTemp. in F°Temp. in °C-8 °C Dan Miller – Climateplace.org0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)
Today’s CO2 ConcentrationAfter 45 More Years of current energy use patterns600500400300280260240CO2 ConcentrationCO2 [ppmv]2202001800 °CTemp. in F°Temp. in °C-8 °C Dan Miller – Climateplace.org0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Feedback Loops – Tipping PointsAt greater than 2°C average temperature increase, we risk unstoppable, runaway temperature increases:Polar Ice Caps Melting- reduced reflectionDrought, insect infestations and fires killing/burning biomassPermafrost methane thawing – Contains as much GHG as currently in atmosphereOcean methane thawing – Teratonnes of methane released
Flickr: DanielKHCFlatFlickr: Mark Austria
The “Poor” are Getting Richer300m Indian middle class becoming used to Western culture and consumptionChina car sales surpassed the US in December, 2008 – 872,900 vehicles sold/month52% of Brazil (100m+ citizens) now has a car, access to credit, and holds a middle class job
What in the world is going on web
What in the world is going on web
MTOe
CrowdedFlickr: B℮n
What in the world is going on web
What in the world is going on web
Resulting TrendsHigher Energy Prices and VolatilityPrice on CarbonChanging Consumer PreferenceIncreased Energy EfficiencyIncreased Use of Renewable Energy
Peak Oil – Hubbert’s PredictionFlickr: weatherjester
What in the world is going on web
US Oil Production
World Oil Production
World Oil ProductionP2PPBefore Peak OilAfter Peak OilSupply IncreasesSupply DecreasesQQP1P1Demand IncreasesDemand IncreasesQ1Q2Q2Q1
Peak Oil - ActualsEx-OPEC and USSRUSA Peak – 1971Hubbert Predicted – 1965-1970Wikipedia
What in the world is going on web
Increased Price of CarbonFlickr: davipt
Price on CarbonBaseline and Credit:Kyoto – Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)Allows Annex A countries to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions in their own countriesSets targets for emissions reduction for each countryRatified by all Annex A nations except the USUses principal of “additionality”Cap and Trade: Fix pollution, price floats European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS)Waxman-Markey (US)Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (Australia)Carbon Tax: Fix price, pollution floats
Price on Carbon
Price on Carbonhttp://climateinteractive.org/
Changing Consumer Preference
1 M Vehicles
1 M Vehicles
1 M VehiclesUS Gas Prices$ 2009
1 M VehiclesUS Gas Prices$ 2009Total US Hybrid Sales
Cash for Clunkers, 2009Edmunds.com – 2009 and 2006 vehicle models
Increased Efficiency
GE Evolution LocomotiveHas given Erie, Pennsylvania a trade surplus with China, Mexico and Brazil10% less CO2 than standard locomotive
10% less fuel resulting in a $2.5m savings over its life (locomotive costs $4m)Boeing 787 DreamlinerAnticipated to be 20% more fuel efficient than 767“one of the industry's most successful launches ever”“demand for the Boeing plane unprecedented.”
Smart Grid	"Our expectation is that this network will be 100 or 1,000 times larger than the Internet. If you think about it, some homes have Internet access, but some don't. Everyone has electricity access--all of those homes could potentially be connected,”Marie Hattar, VP Marketing
Increased Use of Renewables
Increased Use of RenewablesSaul Griffith, Makani Power:Cannot be about “What is politically feasible”.Nor should it be constrained by “What is economically feasible”.If you want clean power for America (and the World), it must be about 	“What is Technically Necessary”
Courtesy: Saul Griffith
Courtesy: Saul Griffith
Courtesy: Saul Griffith
Courtesy: Saul Griffith
Courtesy: Saul Griffith
Courtesy: Saul Griffith
Courtesy: Saul Griffith
More PeopleConsuming MoreWith fewer resources
Energy prices will remain highTo avoid runaway climate change, carbon will be priced
Opportunities:Energy efficiencyAddressing customers needsClean energy
Opportunities:Energy efficiencyAddressing customers needsClean energy

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