What Is Demography? Introduction to Demography
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The document discusses the significance of demography and its historical evolution, tracing thoughts from ancient civilizations to modern population studies. It highlights current population trends, particularly in India, and examines the causes and impacts of population explosions, including economic and social ramifications. Additionally, it contrasts demographics between developed and developing countries, focusing on fertility rates, infant mortality, and age structures.
What Is Demography? Introduction to Demography
- 3. Introductio n • Population growth is the single most important set of events ever to occur in human history, “the most revolutionary phenomenon of our times” as Spanish philosopher Gasset put it more than 70 years ago (Gasset 1932). Population has changed and continues to alter the way of life in even the most remote corners of the earth. • No matter how much you may have heard about declining birth rates, it is still true that the number of people added to the world each day is unprecedented in history and unparalleled in its consequences. There are more highly educated people than ever before, yet also more illiterates; more rich people, but also more poor; more well-fed children, but more hunger-ravaged babies whose images haunt us. We have better control over the environment than ever before, but we are damaging our living space in ways we are afraid to imagine.
- 5. History of demography • Ancient history • Demography and demographic thoughts have been around for many thousands of years. In fact, the civilizations of Ancient Rome, Ancient Greece, India, and China discussed demography extensively. • In Ancient Greece, Epicurus, Hippocrates, Thucydides, Herodotus, Polus, Protagoras, and Aristotle wrote about the subject. • Among the Roman writers, Cato, Columella, Epictetus, Marcus Aurelius, and Cicero expressed important ideas regarding demography.
- 6. Middle ages and later • Christian thinkers in the Middle Ages devoted much of their time refuting the Classical ideas on demography. • In 1662, John Graunt (1620-1674) wrote ‘Natural & Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality.’ Although he was a haberdasher, he was also one of the first population specialists. • Graunt’s work contained a primitive form of the life table. He reported that one- third of all London’s children died before reaching the age of sixteen. • Astronomer Edmond Halley (1656-1742) created a life table as the basis for life insurance mathematics. • Richard Price (1723-1792) wrote the first textbook on life contingencies in 1771. In 1838, Augustus de Morgan wrote ‘On the Application of Probabilities to Life Contingencies.’ • At the end of the 18th century, Thomas Robert Malthus FRS (1766-1834) concluded that populations would be subject to exponential growth if left unchecked. • Malthus warned that populations might grow faster than the growth in food production. If they did, there would subsequently be widespread famine and worsening poverty.
- 7. Demography – a separate subject •From 1980 to 1910, demography emerged from statistics as a separate field of interest. The field evolved rapidly, thanks to some mathematicians and scholars. •Statistician Achille Guillard (1799-1876) first used the term in his 1855 publication: Elements de statistique humaine, ou demographie comparee.
- 8. What Is Demography? • Demography is the scientific study of human populations. • The term itself was coined in 1855 by Achille Guillard, who used it in the title of his book Éléments de Statistique Humaine ou Démographie Comparée. • The word he invented is a combination of two Greek words: demos, which means people, and graphein, which means to write about a particular subject (in this instance, population). • Modern demography is the study of the determinants and consequences of population change and is concerned with virtually everything that influences or can be influenced by these following factors.
- 13. Why Is Demography Important? Demography affects nearly every facet of your life in some way or another. Population change is one of the prime forces behind social and technological change all over the world. 1. Nearly Everything Is Connected to Demography 2. Terrorism and Regional Conflict 3. Embracing and Hating Immigration 4. Globalization 5. Degradation of the Environment 6. The Danger of Demographic Fatigue
- 55. Latest Population Trends Chart and India population from 1950 to 2023. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100. The current population of India in 2023 is 1,428,627,663, a 0.81% increase from 2022. The population of India in 2022 was 1,417,173,173, a 0.68% increase from 2021. The population of India in 2021 was 1,407,563,842, a 0.8% increase from 2020. The population of India in 2020 was 1,396,387,127, a 0.96% increase from 2019. China is soon to be overtaken by India. In the chart here we see historic and projected population by country, spanning from 10,000 BCE through to 2100. The projections – made by the UN’s Population Division – suggest that by 2024, India will surpass China to become the world’s most populous country. Projections are always associated with a degree of uncertainty and this means the crossing point could be a few years earlier or later. But even within this degree of uncertainty, it’s expected that India will become the most populous country within the next decade.
- 60. Population Explosion? • Population Explosion refers to the rapid increase in the number of people in an area. It is a situation where the economy of the country cannot cope up with the rapid growth of the population. Furthermore, in simpler words, it is a situation where the economy cannot provide proper facilities to its people. • Evidently, the largest contributing countries to population explosion are the poorer nations and are termed as developing countries. In India, the state of Uttar Pradesh is the most populated state and Lakshadweep is the least populated. Hence we can say that population explosion is inversely related to the development of that area.
- 61. •Population Explosion has become the mother of evils in our country because too much population is trapping people in a web of poverty and illiteracy that further escalates the problem. Any time of the day, whether it is a metro station, airport, railway platforms, road, highway bus stop, shopping mall, market, or even a social or religious gathering, there is always a swelling crowd of people in India.
- 62. Causes of Population Explosion • The major cause of this population explosion is the difference between the birth rate. The birth rate is the number of individuals born in a population in a given amount of time. The human birth rate is the number of individuals born per year per 1000 in the population. For example, if 35 births occur per year per 1000 individuals, the birth rate is 35). • The death rate is the ratio between deaths and individuals in a particular population during a particular period. In simple words, the incidence of deaths in a given population during a defined time (such as one year) is expressed per 1000 individuals).
- 63. Apart from these, some other factors are partially responsible for population explosion, such as: • A decrease in infant mortality rate (Mortality rate refers to the number of deaths of infants below the age of 6 months.), • The increase in life expectancy (An estimate of the average number of additional years that a person of a given age can expect to live). • Earlier the life expectancy of people was around 55-60 years. Now the average age of a person has increased to 70- 75 years.) but due to better and improved medical facilities, we can now increase the life expectancy of people.
- 64. • Earlier, there was a balance between the birth and death rate due to limited medical facilities, people dying in wars, and other calamities. According to the 2011 census, the birth rate has actually come down but then the death rate has also declined due to the medical advancements. • Illiteracy is another cause of an increase in population. Low literacy rate leads to traditional, superstitious, and ignorant people. For example, Kerala has a very high literacy rate and it constitutes only 2.76% of India’s population as compared to Uttar Pradesh having maximum illiteracy rate and forms 16.49% of the population. Educated people are well aware of birth control methods. • Family planning, welfare programs, and policies have not fetched the desired result. The increase in population is putting tremendous pressure on the limited infrastructure and negating India’s progress.
- 65. • The superstitious people mainly from rural places think that having a male child would give them prosperity and so there is a considerable pressure on the parents to produce children till a male child is born. This leads to a population explosion. • Poverty is another main reason for this. Poor people believe that the more people in the family, the more will be the number of persons to earn bread. Hence it contributes to the increase in population. • Continuous illegal migration of people from neighbouring countries like Nepal, Bangladesh is leading to a rise in the population density in India. • Religion sentiment is another cause of the population explosion. Some orthodox communities believe that any mandate or statutory method of prohibition is sacrilegious. It is difficult for India to exercise a check on the religious grounds for its secularism.
- 66. Impact Due to Population Explosion • The growth of the population has a major impact on the living standards of people. That is why, despite our incredible progress in the agricultural and industrial spheres, our capita income has not risen appreciably. Hence given below are some of the major problems which are just because of the population explosion: 1. Natural Resources of that particular region 2. Unemployment 3. High Cost of Living 4. Poverty 5. Illiteracy 6. Starvation
- 67. Preventive Measures • To tackle this problem, the government needs to take corrective measures. The entire development of the country depends on how effectively the population explosion is stemmed. • The government and various NGOs should raise awareness about family planning and welfare. Hoardings with slogans like “Hum do, humare do” and “Chota Parivar, Sukhi Parivar” should be put up in hospitals and other public places. These slogans mean that a small family is a happy family and two children for two parents. The awareness about the use of contraceptive pills and family planning methods should be generated. • The health care centres should help the poor people with the free distribution of contraceptives and encourage the control of the number of children. • The government should come forward to empower women and improve the status of women and girls. People in rural places should be educated and modern amenities should be provided for recreation.
- 68. Pattern of age and sex structure in developed and lass developed countries
- 69. Highly Developed & Developing Countries • Imagine a big city in the United States and a small village in India. What are some differences between these two locations? Some differences might include climate, population size, culture, and diet. • The economies of these two countries are one major characteristic that set them apart. The United States is considered a highly developed country, which is a general category for countries that are highly industrialized and have high per capita income levels. India, on the other hand, would be considered a developing country, which is a general category for countries that have limited industrialization and have low per capita income levels. • Although highly developed and developing countries are often compared based on economy, they also vary a great deal in population characteristics. Some of the most commonly analyzed population characteristics include infant mortality rate, total fertility rate, replacement-level fertility, and age structure.
- 70. Infant Mortality Rate • Unfortunately, not all children that are born will survive, and the rate of survival can vary a great deal by the type of country. Infant mortality rate is the term used to describe the percentage of infants that die before the age of one year. Although sad, this statistic is very important because it influences the overall population growth rate, replacement-level fertility, and the age structure of the population. • The infant mortality rate varies a great deal between highly developed and developing countries. On average, developing countries have an infant mortality rate that is 18 times higher than the rate of developed countries. When comparing the ten most developed countries with the ten least developed countries, the infant mortality rate is daunting. The most developed countries have an infant mortality rate of less than 1%, while the least developed countries have an average infant mortality rate of around 10%. These differences in infant mortality rate are shocking, and the high rates are due mainly to limited access to medical care, poor sanitation, and increased prevalence of diseases.
- 71. Total Fertility Rate • One of the most important population characteristics of a country has to do with births. The total fertility rate is the average number of offspring born to a woman in a population during her reproductive window. Now, you might ask yourself, what is a woman's reproductive window? The reproductive window is the period in a woman's life when she can physically become pregnant, starting with sexual maturity and ending with menopause. • In a world with unlimited resources and no problems, a woman could produce up to 25 offspring during her reproductive window. This would mean that her total fertility rate would be 25 children per lifetime. Although it is physically possible to produce 25 children per lifetime, the total fertility rate is often much lower. • In developing countries, the fertility rate ranges from between three and seven children per woman. On the other hand, the total fertility rate in developed countries is normally between one and three children per woman. In general, these differences in total fertility rates are due to varying levels of access to contraception and cultural practices.
- 72. Replacement-Level Fertility • Another important population characteristic that relates to births is replacement-level fertility. Replacement-level fertility is the fertility rate that will result in the replacement of the parents in the population. Again, in an ideal world, the human replacement-level fertility rate would be exactly two. This would mean that each couple would produce two offspring that would replace them in the population. If this occurred, then the human population would stay at a stable rate. • Of course, the world is not ideal and not all offspring that are born will survive to reproductive age and replace their parents. The replacement-level fertility rate is greatly impacted by the infant mortality rate. As we now know, the infant mortality rate is much higher in developing countries. As a result of this, the replacement-level fertility rate is also higher in developing countries than in developed countries. • On average, the replacement-level fertility rate is around 2.1 in developed countries. This value includes two children to replace the two parents and an additional 0.1 for the risk of a child dying before reaching reproductive age. For developing countries, this number is slightly higher, at around 2.6, with an additional 0.6 due to the higher risk of infant mortality
- 73. Age Structure • Although the most commonly discussed characteristics of a population have to do with births and deaths, there is another important characteristic that combines these statistics. This characteristic is the population's age structure, which is the distribution of the population based on age categories. The age structure of a population is often displayed using age-sex pyramids, which graphically represent how the population is distributed by both age and sex. The pyramid is comprised of many horizontal bars representing the size of the population at each age category, with young categories at the bottom of the pyramid and old at the top. • Due to the variation in infant mortality and fertility rates between developed and developing countries, the age structure is always quite different. In developed countries, the population is distributed relatively evenly over all age categories. This results in a median age in the late thirties and an age-sex pyramid with very straight sides due to the evenly sized horizontal bars. • Due to high fertility rates and low survivorship, developing countries often have a skewed age structure, with a higher percentage of their overall population being in the lower age categories. This results in a median age in the late teens and an age-sex pyramid with very sloped sides due to larger bars at the bottom of the pyramid. This type of age structure has a large proportion of the population being at reproductive age and leads to an increase in overall birth rates.
- 74. • Now, let's review some major population characteristics that differ between highly developed countries and developing countries. To start, a highly developed country is a general category for countries that are highly industrialized and have high per capita income levels, and a developing country is a general category for countries that have limited industrialization and have low per capita income levels. Although the economy is one major difference between these types of countries, they also have varying population characteristics in terms of infant mortality rate, total fertility rate, replacement-level fertility, and age structure. • Infant mortality rate is the percentage of infants that die before the age of one year. This unfortunate statistic is on average 18 times higher in developing countries than the rate in developed countries. There are two population characteristics that relate to births and fertility. The first is total fertility rate, which is the average number of offspring born to a woman in a population during her reproductive window. The second is replacement-level fertility, which is the fertility rate that will result in the replacement of the parents in the population. Both of these statistics are higher in developing countries in comparison to developed countries. Conclusion
- 75. • In terms of total fertility, the rate in developing countries is between three and seven children per woman and only between one and three children per woman in developed countries. In terms of replacement-level fertility, the rate is around 2.1 in developed countries and slightly higher at 2.6 for developing countries. The last population characteristic is the population's age structure, which is the distribution of the population based on age categories. The age structure in developed countries is evenly distributed, while the age structure of developing countries is skewed towards younger age categories due to high fertility rates and low survivorship. • These characteristics are a general overview of differences between developing and developed countries. Populations are very complex and each country has unique components of their own population.
Editor's Notes
- #67: Natural Resources of that particular region: Natural resources are materials from the Earth used to support life and meet people’s needs. Hence if there are many people, then there is a high requirement for Natural Resources. Unemployment: When a country becomes overpopulated, it gives rise to unemployment as fewer jobs support many people. The rise in unemployment gives rise to crime, such as theft, as people want to feed their families and provide them with basic amenities of life. High Cost of Living: As the difference between demand and supply continues to expand due to population explosion, it raises the prices of various essential commodities, including food, shelter, and healthcare. It means that people have to pay more to survive and feed their families. Poverty: Another major issue of population explosion is the increase in poverty as people are unemployed due to a lack of job opportunities and an abundant workforce. Illiteracy: Because of unemployment, they cannot provide better education to the coming generation, giving us back population explosion. Starvation: When resources are scarce, starvation, ill health, and diseases caused by diet deficiency such as rickets become eminent.