![IMPACT OF UNCONDITIONAL BASIC INCOME ON TRUST
ALLAS, T., MAKSIMAINEN, J., MANYIKA, J., & SINGH, N. (2021, JUNE 23). AN
EXPERIMENT TO INFORM UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME. MCKINSEY & COMPANY.
RETRIEVED APRIL 5, 2022, FROM
HTTPS://WWW.MCKINSEY.COM/INDUSTRIES/PUBLIC-AND-SOCIAL-SECTOR/OUR-
INSIGHTS/AN-EXPERIMENT-TO-INFORM-UNIVERSAL-BASIC-INCOME
"AT THE END OF THE TWO YEARS, BASIC-INCOME RECIPIENTS
REGISTERED ELEVATED LEVELS OF TRUST IN OTHER PEOPLE
AND INSTITUTIONS, SUCH AS FINLAND’S POLITICIANS [13%],
POLITICAL PARTIES, PARLIAMENT, JUDICIARY, AND SOCIAL-
SECURITY SYSTEM. ONE EXPLANATION COULD BE THAT THE
BASIC-INCOME EXPERIMENT DID NOT INVOLVE
BUREAUCRACY, ANOTHER THAT THE RECIPIENTS FELT
SOCIETY—OR 'THE SYSTEM'—WAS NOT NEGLECTING PEOPLE
WHO HAD FALLEN ON HARD TIMES."](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ubislidedeck-220418183917/85/Why-UBI-is-Necessary-to-Restore-Trust-and-Save-Democracy-31-320.jpg)
Why UBI is Necessary to Restore Trust and Save Democracy
- 1. AUTOMATION ALREADY REQUIRES BASIC INCOME Why UBI is Necessary to Restore Trust and Save Democracy SCOTT SANTENS
- 3. DALL-E 2 A new AI system by OpenAI that can create realistic images and art from a description in natural language. All it needs is a sentence.
- 7. Did those images evoke an emotional reaction?
- 9. FEAR ?
- 10. THE STORY OF JOHN Q. CITIZEN THE DREAM High school graduate with a job in manufacturing earning the median income DISRUPTION Loses his job to a robot or outsourcing. The details really don't matter to John. UNEMPLOYED Can't afford to go to college. Can't afford to move or upskill. Feels lost and worthless. Seeks self-medication. REEMPLOYED Finds new lower paying job without benefits. Wife gets one too. Less household income. Less secure. Less happy. Lives in constant fear. ANGRY Sees experts saying automation creates new better jobs and globalization makes stuff cheaper. Falls down a non-expert rabbit hole.
- 11. UNCONDITIONAL No work requirements. Money is provided independent of employment status. PERIODIC Money is provided on a regular dependable basis, be it hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, etc. UNIVERSAL Everyone get it. Money is provided independent of income status. INDIVIDUAL Money is provided to each individual within a household, not the head of the household. BASIC INCOME IS MONEY THAT IS:
- 12. Blue = $1,000/mo UBI floor White = Individual income percentiles Red = Taxes UNCONDITIONAL BASIC INCOME EVERYONE RECEIVES THE SAME INCOME FLOOR AND EVERYONE PAYS TAXES BASED ON THEIR INCOME AND/OR CONSUMPTION @ScottSantens 10% 25% Median 75% 90% 99% 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
- 13. • Started studying the idea of basic income back in 2013 • Lived with a crowdfunded basic income floor since 2016 • Editor of Basic Income Today - a daily UBI news hub • Senior Advisor for Humanity Forward - a bipartisan evidence-based nonprofit with the goal of ending poverty in America WHO AM I? SCOTT SANTENS
- 14. Can we afford UBI? Won't people stop working with UBI? Won't inflation nullify UBI? Should we fear automation? TODAY How did we afford not having UBI? People thought UBI would prevent work? Why did we accept inflation absent UBI? Automate all the things! TOMORROW
- 16. 1) Nixon 2) Robots 3) Universalism 4) Finland 5) Win-win FIVE SUBJECTS ON MY MIND ABOUT TRUST
- 17. Nixon
- 18. THE ORIGINS OF NIXON'S FAP - DANIEL PATRICK MOYNIHAN (1967) “LOOK, WE ARE IN A SITUATION APPROACHING ANARCHY. THE CONFIDENCE AND TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS, THE NECESSARY INSTITUTIONS HOLDING TOGETHER A SOCIETY, IS DWINDLING, DRYING UP... LIBERALS AND CONSERVATIVES HAVE TO COME TOGETHER TO TRY TO ADDRESS PEOPLE’S REAL NEEDS. OTHERWISE, THIS SOCIETY IS GOING TO COLLAPSE. THE SOCIAL CONTRACT WILL GO AND WE WON’T HAVE ENOUGH RESPECT FOR INSTITUTIONS TO KEEP GOING.”
- 19. IMPACT OF UBI ON WORK - DE PAZ-BÁÑEZ MA, ASENSIO-COTO MJ, SÁNCHEZ-LÓPEZ C, ACEYTUNO M-T. IS THERE EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON HOW THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME (UBI) AFFECTS LABOUR SUPPLY? A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW. SUSTAINABILITY. 2020; 12(22):9459. HTTPS://DOI.ORG/10.3390/SU12229459 "DESPITE A DETAILED SEARCH, WE HAVE NOT FOUND ANY EVIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN LABOR SUPPLY; INSTEAD WE FOUND EVIDENCE THAT LABOR SUPPLY INCREASES GLOBALLY AMONG ADULTS, MEN AND WOMEN, YOUNG AND OLD; AND THE EXISTENCE OF SOME INSIGNIFICANT AND FUNCTIONAL REDUCTIONS TO THE SYSTEM SUCH AS A DECREASE IN WORKERS FROM THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, THE SICK, THOSE WITH DISABILITIES, WOMEN WITH YOUNG CHILDREN TO LOOK AFTER, OR YOUNG PEOPLE WHO CONTINUED STUDYING. THESE REDUCTIONS DO NOT REDUCE OVERALL SUPPLY BECAUSE IT IS LARGELY OFFSET BY INCREASED SUPPLY FROM OTHER MEMBERS OF THE COMMUNITY."
- 20. STOCKTON, CA $500/MO BASIC INCOME RECIPIENTS FOUND FULL- TIME EMPLOYMENT AT TWICE THE RATE OF NON- RECIPIENTS (28%>>40% VS 32%>>37%) HUDSON, NY $500/MO BASIC INCOME RECIPIENT EMPLOYMENT MORE THAN DOUBLED (FROM 29% T0 63%)
- 21. Report from the Social Policy Institute at Washington University in St. Louis found that declines in employment in 2022 have been sharpest for monthly CTC recipients once the enhanced credit was terminated. Employment of CTC recipients dropped from 72.4% to 68.3% after the final monthly payment of the credit in December 2021. EFFECT OF MONTHLY CTC EXPIRATION PARENTAL EMPLOYMENT DECLINED
- 22. Robot s
- 23. IMPACT OF ROBOTS ON DEMOCRACY - ANELLI, M., COLANTONE, I., & STANIG, P. (2021). INDIVIDUAL VULNERABILITY TO INDUSTRIAL ROBOT ADOPTION INCREASES SUPPORT FOR THE RADICAL RIGHT. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, 118(47). HTTPS://DOI.ORG/10.1073/PNAS.2111611118 "WE INVESTIGATE THE IMPACT OF INDUSTRIAL ROBOT ADOPTION ON INDIVIDUAL VOTING BEHAVIOR IN 13 WESTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES BETWEEN 1999 AND 2015... WE FIND THAT INDIVIDUALS MORE EXPOSED TO AUTOMATION TEND TO DISPLAY HIGHER SUPPORT FOR THE RADICAL RIGHT." AUTOMATION WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH POORER PERCEIVED ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, LOWER LIKELIHOOD OF HAVING A PERMANENT CONTRACT, AND LOWER SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND DEMOCRACY.
- 24. IMPACT OF ROBOTS ON HEALTH PANKAJ C. PATEL, SRIKANT DEVARAJ, MICHAEL J. HICKS, EMILY J. WORNELL, County-level job automation risk and health: Evidence from the United States, Social Science & Medicine, Volume 202, 2018, Pages 54-60, ISSN 0277-9536, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2018.02.025. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953618300819) "USING THE 2012 AND 2014 WAVES OF THE GSS, EMPLOYEES IN OCCUPATIONAL CLASSES AT HIGHER RISK OF AUTOMATION REPORTED MORE JOB INSECURITY, THAT, IN TURN, WAS ASSOCIATED WITH POORER HEALTH. THE 2SLS ESTIMATES SHOW THAT A 10% INCREASE IN AUTOMATION RISK AT COUNTY-LEVEL IS ASSOCIATED WITH 2.38, 0.8, AND 0.6 PERCENTAGE POINT LOWER GENERAL, PHYSICAL, AND MENTAL HEALTH, RESPECTIVELY."
- 25. • 6 in 10 now say their default is to distrust something until they see evidence it is trustworthy (oftentimes now social media) • Government leaders are the least trusted of all leaders with only 42% trust • In many democracies, trust in institutions is no longer a majority view, including the US at 43% • 85% fear the loss of their jobs • 48% believe government is a divisive force • In no developed country do most people feel they will be better off in 5 years TRUST IN 28 COUNTRIES TOP FINDINGS
- 26. Universalism
- 27. IMPACT OF NON-UNIVERSAL CASH ON TRUST KOSEC, KATRINA; AND MO, CECILIA HYUNJUNG. 2019. DOES RELATIVE DEPRIVATION CONDITION THE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAMS ON POLITICAL ATTITUDES? EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN. IFPRI DISCUSSION PAPER 1842. WASHINGTON, DC: INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (IFPRI). HTTPS://DOI.ORG/10.2499/P15738COLL2.133270 "AMONG THOSE WHO BARELY MET THE CUTOFF to be cash transfer recipients, the relative poverty prime led to a 0.6 percentage point increase in government satisfaction. Among those who barely missed the cutoff, and received no cash transfer assistance, we observe a 10.5 percentage point drop in government confidence... non-beneficiaries feel resentment that they do not have access to economic assistance from the state that others have access to, despite their economic need."
- 28. @ScottSantens THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SOMEONE GETTING HELP THEY DON’T NEED, AND SOMEONE NEEDING HELP THEY DON’T GET. THE FORMER CAN BE CONSIDERED WASTEFUL, BUT THE LATTER CAN PROVE FATAL. IT’S ALWAYS BETTER TO GET AND NOT NEED, THAN NEED AND NOT GET.
- 29. JOKE - ANONYMOUS ENGINEER BEFORE STUDYING ENGINEERING, IF SOMEONE ASKED ME WHAT 1+1 IS, I WOULD HAVE SAID "2." NOW, I'D SAY "I'M PRETTY SURE IT'S 2, BUT WE'D BETTER MAKE IT 3 JUST TO BE SAFE."
- 30. Finland
- 31. IMPACT OF UNCONDITIONAL BASIC INCOME ON TRUST ALLAS, T., MAKSIMAINEN, J., MANYIKA, J., & SINGH, N. (2021, JUNE 23). AN EXPERIMENT TO INFORM UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME. MCKINSEY & COMPANY. RETRIEVED APRIL 5, 2022, FROM HTTPS://WWW.MCKINSEY.COM/INDUSTRIES/PUBLIC-AND-SOCIAL-SECTOR/OUR- INSIGHTS/AN-EXPERIMENT-TO-INFORM-UNIVERSAL-BASIC-INCOME "AT THE END OF THE TWO YEARS, BASIC-INCOME RECIPIENTS REGISTERED ELEVATED LEVELS OF TRUST IN OTHER PEOPLE AND INSTITUTIONS, SUCH AS FINLAND’S POLITICIANS [13%], POLITICAL PARTIES, PARLIAMENT, JUDICIARY, AND SOCIAL- SECURITY SYSTEM. ONE EXPLANATION COULD BE THAT THE BASIC-INCOME EXPERIMENT DID NOT INVOLVE BUREAUCRACY, ANOTHER THAT THE RECIPIENTS FELT SOCIETY—OR 'THE SYSTEM'—WAS NOT NEGLECTING PEOPLE WHO HAD FALLEN ON HARD TIMES."
- 32. OBSERVED EFFECTS OF UBI • No significant reduction in labor supply (38 studies meta-analysis) • Increased self-employment (301%) and part-time employment (17%) • Slight decrease in alcohol and tobacco use (31 studies meta-analysis) • New mothers extend their maternity leaves • Birth weights improve due to better maternal nutrition • Graduation rates and educational outcomes improve • Hospitalization rates decline (8.5%) • Crime goes down (15%–42%) especially illegal hunting (95%) • Domestic violence decreases (30%–51%) • Trust increases (13% in politicians | 6% in other people) • Home ownership rates increase (17%–26%) • Food security increases as does consumption of fresh fruits and vegetables • Improved cognitive functioning (43%) and personality traits (31%) • Savings go up, debts go down @scottsanten
- 33. Win-win
- 34. IMPACT OF AUTOMATION PLUS UBI BENZELL, S., KOTLIKOFF, L., LAGARDA, G., & YE, V. Y. (2021). SIMULATING ENDOGENOUS GLOBAL AUTOMATION. NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH. HTTPS://DOI.ORG/10.3386/W29220 "In our baseline scenario, automation has a moderate effect on regional outputs and a small effect on world interest rates. However, it has a major impact on inequality, both wage inequality within regions and per capita GDP inequality across regions. We examine two policy responses to technological change -- mandating use of the advanced technology and providing universal basic income to share gains from automation. The former policy can raise a region's output, but at a welfare cost. The latter policy can transform automation into a win-win for all generations in a region."
- 35. IMPACT OF AUTOMATION PLUS UBI SINGER, S., & SILVIAN, B. (2021, NOVEMBER 9). HOW UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME CAN ADVANCE THE UNITED STATES' CHINA STRATEGY. – THE DIPLOMAT. RETRIEVED APRIL 7, 2022, FROM HTTPS://THEDIPLOMAT.COM/2021/11/HOW- UNIVERSAL-BASIC-INCOME-CAN-ADVANCE-THE-UNITED-STATES-CHINA- STRATEGY/ "ubi would strengthen American competitiveness on the world stage by unlocking support for technological progress and AI development. As such, it would help the United States maintain its hegemonic advantage over China. UBI reframes the story of automation. Instead of replacing us, robots would now be working for us, and their progress would deliver us financial freedom. As their productivity grows in the coming decades, so could monthly checks – aka the dividends we are paid for being stakeholders in the United States. In this context, rapid technological progress that allows America to stay nationally competitive is not only digestible, but beneficial."
- 37. Enough technological predictions. What destination should humanity set?