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Would I have survived the Titanic?
Machine Learning in Microsoft Azure
SQL Saturday 409
Olivia Klose
Technical Evangelist, Microsoft
@oliviaklose | http://oliviaklose.com
Organizer
SQLSaturday Rheinland 201513.06.2015
Bronze Sponsor
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Silver Sponsor
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Gold Sponsor
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You rock!
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Save the date!
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
WHAT IS MACHINE LEARNING?
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
Machine Learning – Where?
Machine Learning – Where?
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13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
What is Machine Learning?
“The goal of machine learning is
to program computers
to use example data or past experience
to solve a given problem.”
Introduction to Machine Learning, 2nd Edition, MIT Press
What is Machine Learning?
Methods and Systems that...
adapt
predict new
data
optimise an
action
extract
information
summarise
data
What is Machine Learning not?
Methods and Systems that...
do „Garbage-In-
Knowledge-Out“
predict without
data modelling &
feature
engineering
are always perfect
replace
business rules
Machine Learning – Warum?
1. Too complex: When you can’t code it.
(e.g. Natural Language Processing, hand writing recognition, Computer
Vision,…)
2. Too much: When you can’t scale it.
(e.g. Spam & fraud detection, healthcare)
3. Too specialised: When you have to
adapt/personalise.
(e.g. Amazon, Netflix)
4. Autonomous: When you can’t track it.
(e.g. AI gaming, robotics)
Advanced Analytics Scenarios
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EXAMPLE SOLUTIONS
THE MACHINE LEARNING
PROCESS
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Machine Learning Process
Data
Clean
Transform
Maths
Build
Model
Predict
Hm – what?
𝑓 X = y
Input
Matrix/Table
Output
Vector/Column
Hm – what?
ℎ X = y
Input
Matrix/Table
Predicted Output
Vector/Column
Hypothesis
Data
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Forecast Temperature Windy Play tennis?
Sunny Low Yes Play
Sunny High Yes Don't Play
Sunny High No Don't Play
Cloudy Low Yes Play
Cloudy High No Play
Cloudy Low No Play
Rainy Low Yes Don't Play
Rainy Low No Play
Sunny Low No ?
𝑓 x = 𝑦
Features / Input:
(Forecast, Temperature, Windy)
e.g. x = sunny, low, yes
Play /
Don‘t Play
Säubern, transformieren, Mathe
Forecast Temperature Windy Play tennis?
Sunny Very Low Yes Play
Sunny High Yes Don't Play
Sunny High Kinda Don't Play
Cloudy ? Yes One place
Fleecy
clouds
High No Play
Cloudy Low No Play
Rainy ? Yes Don't Play
Rainy Low No Play
Sunny Low No ?
Säubern, transformieren, Mathe
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
[[ 1.000000],
[ -1.000000],
[ -1.000000],
[ 1.000000],
[ 1.000000],
[ 1.000000],
[ -1.000000],
[ 1.000000]]
Forecast Temperature Windy Play tennis?
Sunny Low Yes Play
Sunny High Yes Don't Play
Sunny High No Don't Play
Cloudy Low Yes Play
Cloudy High No Play
Cloudy Low No Play
Rainy Low Yes Don't Play
Rainy Low No Play
Sunny Low No ?
Säubern, transformieren, Mathe
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
[[ 1.000000, 0.000000, 1.000000],
[ 1.000000, 1.000000, 1.000000],
[ 1.000000, 1.000000, -1.000000],
[ 2.000000, 0.000000, 1.000000],
[ 2.000000, 1.000000, -1.000000],
[ 2.000000, 0.000000, -1.000000],
[ 3.000000, 0.000000, 1.000000],
[ 3.000000, 0.000000, -1.000000]]
Forecast Temperature Windy Play tennis?
Sunny Low Yes Play
Sunny High Yes Don't Play
Sunny High No Don't Play
Cloudy Low Yes Play
Cloudy High No Play
Cloudy Low No Play
Rainy Low Yes Don't Play
Rainy Low No Play
Sunny Low No ?
Modell Bauen
Forecast
Temperature WindyYes
Cloudy
Sunny
Low
Yes
Rainy
High
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Forecast Temperature Windy Play tennis?
Sunny Low Yes Play
Sunny High Yes Don't Play
Sunny High No Don't Play
Cloudy Low Yes Play
Cloudy High No Play
Cloudy Low No Play
Rainy Low Yes Don't Play
Rainy Low No Play
Sunny Low No ?
Vorhersagen
Forecast Temperature Windy Play?
Sunny Low No ?
Forecast
Temperature WindyYes
Cloudy
Sunny
Low
Yes
Rainy
High
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Forecast
Temperature WindyYes
Cloudy
Sunny
Low
Yes
Rainy
High
No
No
Yes
Yes
No
Vorhersagen
Play!
Forecast Temperature Windy Play?
Sunny Low No ?
Popular Machine Learning Models
 Support Vector Machines
 Neural Networks
 Decision Trees
True Label
Positive Negative
PredictedLabel
Positive
True positive
(TP)
False positive
(FP)
𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 =
𝑡𝑝
𝑡𝑝 + 𝑓𝑝
Negative
False negative
(FN)
True negative
(TN)
𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙 =
𝑡𝑝
𝑡𝑝 + 𝑓𝑛
𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 =
𝑡𝑝 + 𝑡𝑛
𝑡𝑝 + 𝑡𝑛 + 𝑓𝑝 + 𝑓𝑛
Is the model any good? Confusion Matrix
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
True Label
Patient is sick. Patient is healthy.
PredictedLabel
Testpositive
Test correctly states that
the patient is sick.
Test incorrectly states
that the patient is sick
(although he/she is
healthy).
𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 =
𝑡𝑝
𝑡𝑝 + 𝑓𝑝
Testnegative
Test incorrectly states
that the patient is
healthy (although being
sick).
Test correctly states that
the patient is healthy.
𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑙 =
𝑡𝑝
𝑡𝑝 + 𝑓𝑛
𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑦 =
𝑡𝑝 + 𝑡𝑛
𝑡𝑝 + 𝑡𝑛 + 𝑓𝑝 + 𝑓𝑛
Is the model any good? Confusion Matrix
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AZURE MACHINE LEARNING
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
Azure Machine Learning
Make machine learning accessible to
every enterprise, data scientist, developer,
information worker, consumer, and device
anywhere in the world.
Azure Machine Learning
HDInsight
SQL Server VM
SQL DB
Blobs & Tables
Cloud
Desktop files
Excel
spreadsheets
Others…
Lokal
ML
Studio
IDE for ML
Web Service
M
Monetise
Storage Account
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
DEMO
Surviving on the Titanic
SO DO I NEED TO LEARN
MACHINE LEARNING NOW?
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
DEMO
Azure ML Marketplace
WHAT DID WE DO?
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
http://aka.ms/MLCheatSheet
Stream Analytics + Machine Learning
In limited preview
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
SELECT text, sentiment(text)
FROM myStream
http://aka.ms/stream-ml
Free E-Book
http://aka.ms/MLbook
Blog-Series on Machine Learning
http://aka.ms/MLSerie
http://aka.ms/AzureML-Ueberblick
http://aka.ms/AzureML-resources
Free Video Series on Azure ML
http://aka.ms/AzureML-MVA
Further Information
13.06.2015 SQLSaturday Rheinland 2015
aka.ms/azurenow
Machine Learning Series
http://aka.ms/MLserie
http://aka.ms/AzureML-Ueberblick
http://aka.ms/AzureML-resources
Machine Learning Video-Series (MVA)
http://aka.ms/AzureML-MVA
Machine Learning Studio
http://studio.azureml.net
Free E-Book
http://aka.ms/MLbook
oliviaklose.com
aka.ms/MLblog
@oliviaklose

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Would I have survived the Titanic? Machine Learning in Microsoft Azure