Writing about numbers
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The number of subscribers increased 17% in February from 26,172 to 31,498, with 371 re-subscribing after lapsing for over 6 months. While the increase seems large, data should be presented clearly and concisely to provide meaningful context and avoid numerical fallacies. Only include as many details as needed to understand the key trends, avoiding excessive numbers or percentages that can confuse readers.
Writing about numbers
- 1. NUMBERS GENERAL THOUGHTS ON DEALING WITH THEM
- 2. WHAT’S WRONG? • The number of subscribers increased by 17 percent in February from 26,172 to 31,498, with 371 of those having been lapsed 6 months or more, but re-subscribing for that second month. • Q: Is this a meaningful increase?
- 3. BASIC WRITING CONCEPTS Data is rarely presented best in longhand The number of subscribers increased by 17 percent in February from 26,172 to 31,498, with 371 of those having been lapsed 6 months or more, but re-subscribing for that second month. Month Start Month End Resubscribes Feb 26,172 31,498 371
- 4. BASIC WRITING CONCEPTS Too many numbers in a sentence is confusing (generally no more than 3 is good) The number of subscribers increased by 17 percent in February. Of the 5,326 new subscribers, 371 renewed a lapsed subscription.
- 5. BASIC WRITING CONCEPTS Only be as precise as you must be. The number of subscribers increased in February from about 26,000 to about 31,500. About 370 of the addition were actually resubscriptions from those having been lapsed 6 months.
- 6. BASIC WRITING CONCEPTS You don’t generally need both raw numbers and percentages The number of subscribers increased by 17 percent in February. OR The number of subscribers increased by 5,326 in February.
- 7. BASIC WRITING CONCEPTS Number stories always need context • The number of subscribers increased by 5236 in February. This is good news following January’s loss of 97,326. • The number of subscribers increased by 17 percent in February. Since last year, the subscriber base has grown by 270 overall.
- 8. NUMERICAL FALLACIES Ignoring the base rate. You are much more likely to die in a car accident, than from cancer at your age. If the incidence of cancer triples, it’s still true. A story saying cancer incidence has tripled is true, but may not be important. Correlation. Bicycle theft and ice cream sales rise at the same time. Therefore, eating ice cream causes one to steal bicycles. Insufficient proof. Three people posted on RateMyProfessor that they dropped a letter grade after the final project. Therefore, the project is unfair.
- 9. NUMERICAL FALLACIES • Misunderstood independent events – I flipped this coin and got tails 9 times in a row. The next time has to be heads. (or slot machine pulls) • Naïve probablity - Let’s say you had the choice of winning $30,000 or making a bet that has an 80% chance of of winning $40,000 or a 20% of winning nothing. • Most people would take the thirty grand even though the average gain from the second choice would be $32,000.