Overshoot to Deficit

On this 205th day of the year, consumption of natural resources will exceed the production. In 2025, Earth Overshoot Day has been projected to fall on July 24th, marking the date when humanity's demand for ecological resources exceeds what the planet can regenerate in a year. So, from  Now onwards, for the next 160 days, resource reserves will be saviors to the humanity and all living beings resulting to further deficit of resources. We will be maintaining our ecological deficit by drawing down local resource stocks and accumulating carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Humanity is being operated in overshoot. This ecological deficit spending is possible because we can liquidate stocks of ecological resources and accumulate waste, most prominently carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Last year, demand overshoot over generated resources was observed on August 1, 2024 (212nd day of the year). The date has been moving earlier in the year, indicating humanity's increasing consumption and reliance on natural resources. Since 1971, when first earth overshoot day was observed on December 25, every year, it has been moving closer and closer. As overspending cannot last, overshoot will end. The question is only how: by design or disaster.

Marking this day has become important considering irresponsible consumption and depleting resources. At global level, due to enhanced consumerism, planet resources are getting compromised to pose a threat to future generation. Impact is not limited to human being, but entire biodiversity gets affected.

Blame of depleting resources or deficit are being levied on increase in population but deep dive on consumption pattern yields true scenario. Over the past decade, global waste generation has generally increased, with notable shifts in waste composition and management practices. Specifically, household waste generation has increased, while the proportion of organic waste has decreased, with a corresponding increase in plastics. Municipal waste collection efficiency has improved, but challenges remain in multi-level government coordination and waste treatment. With Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.5%, more than two billion metric tons of municipal solid waste alone are generated worldwide every year. This figure is forecast to increase to almost four billion tons by 2050, in a business-as-usual scenario. It speaks volumes about the growing consumption pattern.

How much nature do we have? 

The calculation is simple: the globe has a circumference of 40,000 kilometers. Using simple school geometry, even high-schoolers can calculate that the Earth’s surface covers therefore 51 billion hectares. Maps show that about a quarter of the Earth’s surface is biologically productive: forests, fields, wetlands and seas rich in fish – especially the coastal areas. The other three quarters are deserts, ice sheets and deep oceans with few fish. What does that mean per person? With a world population of over eight billion, there is about 1.5 hectares of productive land per inhabitant today.

Is the goal therefore for people to use all 1.5 hectares per person? Probably not. Since we share this planet with 5-10 million wild species (not including microbes), they need some of that ecological capacity as well to live. Resilient ecosystems and robust biodiversity may also prove central for climate stability. Additionally, we may want to leave further reserves as the world’s population is growing.

Measuring Ecological Wealth

Just as a bank statement tracks income against expenditures, Global Footprint Network measures a population’s demand for and ecosystems’ supply of resources and services. These calculations then serve as the foundation for calculating Earth Overshoot Day.

On the supply side, a city, state, or nation’s biocapacity represents its biologically productive land and sea area, including forest lands, grazing lands, cropland, fishing grounds, and built-up land. On the demand side, the Ecological Footprint measures a population’s demand for plant-based food and fibre products, livestock and fish products, timber and other forest products, space for urban infrastructure, and forest to absorb its carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. Both measures are expressed in global hectares—globally comparable, standardized hectares with world average productivity. A hectare is equivalent to 10,000 square meters or 2.47 acres.

 Each city, state or nation’s Ecological Footprint can be compared to its biocapacity. If a population’s demand for ecological assets exceeds the supply, that region runs an ecological deficit. A region in ecological deficit meets demand by importing, liquidating its own ecological assets (such as overfishing), and/or emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. At the global level, ecological deficit and overshoot are the same, since there is no net import of resources to the planet.

Observance of Earth Overshoot Day sets an alarm over irresponsible consumption. Moreover, it warns on disasters in waiting. Increased consumption has been established as a root cause to climate change and global warming. Significant  changes in atmospheric condition need to be controlled through responsible consumption pattern. To translate it into action, every individual will have to focus more on Rethink and Refuse before getting anything to use. Once in use, valuable resources enter in a vicious cycle ending up as waste and deficit in available resources.

To reduce carbon footprint, focus on decreasing energy consumption, adopting sustainable transportation, and making mindful food choices. This includes using less energy at home, choosing renewable energy sources, opting for public transport, cycling, or walking, and reducing meat consumption. You can also make conscious purchasing decisions and reduce waste by reusing and recycling.

Also, it is important to keep in mind that Earth does not belong to human being alone but to the entire biodiversity. They have equal right over it. Human cannot live alone, existence of every living organism is equally important to maintain balance. Controlled and responsible consumption need to be inculcated as Samskar from the beginning of life to maintain resource balance.