How to think about the future
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This document provides an agenda on how to think about the future. It discusses topics like disruption in education and exponential advancement in information technologies. It outlines Peter Thiel's formula for how unicorns think, focusing on making progress from 0 to 1 rather than 1 to n. The document also imagines potential applications of virtual reality and artificial intelligence, such as students exploring virtual worlds related to history and science. It concludes by advising the reader to rapidly iterate, think long-term, and maintain optimism when considering what these changes could mean.
How to think about the future
- 1. H O W T O T H I N K A B O U T The Future
- 2. A G E N D A Disruption • Exponential Advancement • How Unicorns Think • Virtual Reality & Artificial Intelligence • What Does All This Mean? • What You Can Do Now
- 3. Education (like media!) is ripe for disruption
- 4. • Information Technologies (of all kinds) double their power (price performance, capacity, bandwidth) every year • We’re seeing this also translate over to communication technologies • Progress over the next two decades will see greater gains than we’ve had in the previous two hundred years Exponential Advancement
- 5. Peter Thiel’s Formula - Make incremental advances - Stay lean and flexible - Improve on the competition - Focus on the product not sales - Better to risk boldness than triviality - A bad plan is better than no plan - Competitive markets destroy profits - Sales matter just as much as profits How Unicorns think Old New
- 6. zero to 1 OLD 1 to n = horizontal progress (copying things that work) NEW 0 to 1. Make vertical progress (do new things)
- 7. Competition is overrated. Competition means no profits for anybody, no meaningful differentiation, and a struggle for survival.
- 8. NETWORK EFFECTS ECONOMIES OF SCALE BRANDINGPROPRIETARY TECHNOLOGY Build Monopolies
- 9. Don’t disrupt. Get the last mover advantage. Make the last great development in a specific market and enjoy years of monopoly profits.
- 11. To Become a Billionaire, Help a Billion People. Technology is democratizing the power to change the world. - Peter Diamandis
- 13. A student learning about dinosaurs in the Jurassic period won’t have to just read about it in a textbook – they’ll be able to put on a VR headset and literally explore the VR equivalent of Jurassic Park. Imagine This…
- 14. Students studying physics will be able to “step inside” a virtual environment where the build (and destroy) huge structures, fly through planets and stand next to Isaac Newton as he discovers the laws of motion. Imagine This…
- 16. A virtual version of the world’s best history professor delivers a personalised lesson at a pace and language best suited to every student. Imagine This…
- 17. What does this mean? Rapidly iterate and ceaselessly experiment until you get it right Think about what you want to own and where you can partner Emphasise a customer-centric approach Rely on fundamental truths Be a rational optimist Think in probabilities Think long-term
- 19. Q&A Travis May travis.may@fairfaxmedia.com.au 0421 701 857 linkedin.com/in/travisdmay