What is forecasting
- 1. WHAT IS FORECASTING Process of systematic analysis of past and present conditions with the aim of drawing inferences about the future course of events. It is used to make informed decisions. It provides basis for coordinating activities in various parts of the company. Long-range Short range
- 2. IMPORTANCE OF FORECASTING Forecasting is important for all functional areas of business. Forecasting provides relevant and reliable information about the past and present events and the likely future events. This is necessary for sound planning. It gives confidence to the managers for making important decisions. It is the basis for making planning premises, and. It keeps managers active and alert to face the challenges of future events and the changes in the environment.
- 3. FMCG Sector Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), also known as consumer packaged goods (CPG), are products that are sold quickly and at a relatively low cost. CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE Frequent purchases Low engagement Low prices Short shelf life Rapid consumption MARKETER PERSPECTIVE High volumes Low contribution margins Extensive distribution High inventory turnover
- 4. METHOD USED Time Method with Seasonality (M5) • Based on seasonal demands • Face a lot of Fluctuations • Analysis the degree of variability • Forecasted for a short period • Month had the highest and lowest sales 74340.35241 72444.61946 73266.71258 83680.53083 66000 68000 70000 72000 74000 76000 78000 80000 82000 84000 86000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sales in Crores Quarters ITC Quarterly Forecased Sales for the Year 2020-2024 Total
- 5. Forecasting Errors Meaning: The forecast error is the difference between the actual value and forecast value for the corresponding period. Et = Yt- Ft Mean Absolute Data (MAD): Indicates on an average basis, how any units the forecast is off from actual data BRITANIA, 4% COLAGTE, 8% DABUR, 4% HUL, 2.5% ITC, 11% MARICO, 5.88% NESTLE, 18.87% BRITANIA COLAGTE DABUR HUL ITC MARICO NESTLE 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 % Errors of 7 FMCG Company
- 6. FINDINGS 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q2 Q2 BRITANNIA COLGATE PALMOLIVE DABUR HUL ITC MARICO NESTLE Sales FMCG COMPANIES Highest Performing Quarter from 2020-2024 Total COMPANY TOP PERFORMING PRODUCTS ITC Surf excel, lifeBoy, Brookebond HUL Aashirvaad Atta, Sunfeast Biscuts DABUR Dabur Chyawabprash, Dabur Honey MARICO Saffola edible oil, parachite oil BRITANNIA Good day biscuts, tiger biscuts NESTLE Maggi, Powder milk COLGATE PALMOLIVE Toothpaste, toothbrush
- 7. IMPACT OF COVID-19 Transformation in Consumer Behaviors Impact on Food & beverage industry Impact on personal hygiene products Supply Chain Transformation Losing consumers temporarily or permanently to compete due to stock outs