Trend Forecasting Using Data
- 2. AN INDUSTRY AT A TURNING POINT “What is not working is the fact that there is no relationship between the creative vision and the commercial vision.” The commercial side has long perceived the value of analytics but should they matter to the creative? Demna Gvasalia, Vetements
- 3. THE ANSWER IS YES Millions of dollars are lost every year in markdowns and missed opportunities because brands either invest into the wrong trends at too great an extent, or macro- and micro-product development opportunities are acted upon...too late.
- 4. SO WHAT DOES SMARTER TREND FORECASTING LOOK LIKE?
- 6. LET'S LOOK AT A SPECIFIC EXAMPLE THIS PAST SPRING/SUMMER SEASON GINGHAM WAS EVERYWHERE...BUT WHEN DID IT REALLY EMERGE AS A TREND?
- 7. START WITH THESE DATA SOURCES SOCIAL SEARCH E-COMMERCE
- 8. SOCIAL: WHAT SHAPE DOES THIS TREND TAKE? SOCIAL INSIGHT: USING IMAGE RECOGNITION TECHNOLOGY EXTRACTING PRINT AND GARMENT TYPE, WE ARE ABLE TO PINPOINT THAT THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF INSTAGRAM POSTS ARE SHIRTS + DRESSES.
- 9. SOCIAL: WHERE IS IT MOST POPULAR? DO YOU KNOW WHERE KEY INFLUENCERS ARE LOCATED? (AND DO YOU KNOW THE KEY INFLUENCERS AS THEY RELATE TO YOUR TARGET DEMOGRAPHIC?) GEO-TAGGING THEIR ACTIVITY TELLS YOU WHERE THE TREND HAS LEGS AND HOW AND WHERE YOU SHOULD FOCUS YOUR PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT AND MARKETING EFFORTS. INSIGHT: GINGHAM EMERGED ON INSTAGRAM FIRST IN MAJOR CITIES LIKE NEW YORK, LOS ANGELES, LONDON, AND SYDNEY, ON THE HEELS OF ITS EMERGENCE IN 2014-5 S/S FASHION WEEKS.
- 10. SEARCH: WHAT IS THIS THING CALLED? WITH AN EMERGENCE ON SOCIAL MEDIA, THIS THING IS OFFICIALLY A TREND, SO IS IT BEING SEARCHED FOR? GOOGLE HISTORIC SEARCH DATA: KEYWORD GINGHAM INSIGHT: WHILE SEARCH INTEREST STARTED TO PICK UP AFTER ITS APPEARANCE IN RUNWAY SHOWS (IN BOTH 2014-2015), THE TREND DIDN'T REALLY EMERGE IN SEARCH DATA UNTIL MUCH LATER (SPRING 2017). WHY? BECAUSE SEARCH INTEREST OFTENTIMES WELL PRECEDES ACTUAL PURCHASE INTENT FOR MAINSTREAM AUDIENCES .
- 11. INSIGHT: UNDERSTANDING WHERE SEARCH IS CLUSTERING TELLS YOU WHERE YOUR EARLY ADOPTERS AND RESULTING TARGET MARKETS ARE FOR INITIAL LAUNCH, IN THIS CASE MAJOR UK, US, AND AUSTRALIAN CITIES. SEARCH: WHERE IS INTEREST EMERGING?
- 12. ARMED WITH INSIGHTS ON WHO IS WEARING A TREND, EXACTLY WHAT PROFILES IT'S TAKING, AND WHERE ITEMS ARE EMERGING, YOU KNOW HOW TO FOCUS YOUR LAUNCH EFFORTS. IN OUR NEXT INSTALLMENT, SEE HOW THE TREND EMERGES AT THE POINT-OF-SALE AND THE KEY METRICS THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO MEASURE ITS SUCCESS. PUTTING TWO PIECES OF THE PUZZLE TOGETHER
- 13. WANT TO KNOW MORE www.stylesage.co ABOUT SMARTER TREND FORECASTING?