Project Cycle and Causal Hypothesis _ Theory of Change.pptx

PROPOSAL DEVELOPMENT/WRITING
Project Cycle and Causal
Hypothesis/Theory of Change

Learning Outcomes
After this session, the participants will be able:
To understand the concept of “project cycle”
defining project beneficiaries
To design a project using causal pathway
framework.
Explain the Causal Hypothesis/Theory of Change
Theory of change

The Project Life Cycle
The project life cycle is
the order of processes
and phases used in
delivering projects. It
describes the high-level
workflow of delivering a
project and the steps you
take to make things
happen.
What Is The
Project Life
Cycle?

The Project Life Cycle
(PMBOK® Guide, 2000, p. 31)

Project Cycle and
Causal Hypothesis The causal hypothesis is
a concise statement of
the logic behind the
project.
Meaning

Executive Summary
Project cycle is the
basic concept of
designing a project.
To design a project,
it is necessary to start
with a project Theory
of Change.
“project cycle”, “causal
pathway framework”

Theory of Change
A theory of change is a method that explains how a
given intervention, or set of interventions, is expected
to lead to specific development change, drawing on a
causal analysis based on available evidence.
A theory of change for the IMLU must be driven by
sound analyses, consultation with key stakeholders and
learning on what works and what does not in diverse
contexts drawn from the experiences of the
organization and its partners.
A theory of change helps to identify solutions to
effectively address the causes of problems that hinder
progress and guide decisions on which approach should
be taken, considering IMLU comparative advantages,
effectiveness, feasibility and uncertainties that are part
of any change process.
A theory of change also helps to identify the underlying
assumptions and risks that will be vital to understand
and revisit throughout the process to ensure the
approach will contribute to the desired change.
What is a
Theory of
Change?

Theory of Change (ToC)
• Definition
Theory of change is an on-going process of reflection to explore change
and how it happens – and what that means in a particular context, sector,
and/or group of people.
ToC thinking
• Structured way of thinking about change and impact organizations would like to
achieve
• Integrated approach to programme design, implementation, M+E, and
communication

Purpose: Why use a Theory of Change?
• First, Human Rights Violations are complex, and are typically caused by many factors and layers that are embedded deeply in
the way society functions.
 For example, opening a legal aid clinic may not lead to more women accessing justice services unless issues of cultural
sensitivities, needed legal reforms and childcare constraints are addressed as well.
 A theory of change can help IMLU systematically think through the many underlying and root causes of human rights
violations, and how they influence each other, when determining what IMLU should address as a priority to maximize
the UN’s contribution to achieving development change.
• Second, a theory of change provides a framework for learning both within and between programming cycles.
 By articulating the causes of Human Rights Violations, making assumptions explicit on how the proposed strategy is
expected to yield results, and testing these assumptions against evidence—including what has worked well, or not, in
the past—the theory of change helps ensure a sound logic for achieving change.
 The theory of change also helps make course corrections if the selected approach is not working or if anticipated risks
materialize.
 New learning and lessons from monitoring and evaluation help refine assumptions and inform decisions on how an
approach should be adapted to deliver planned results.
 Adjustments to the theory of change should also be made in light of changing circumstances, especially in response to
crisis and shocks, as well as part of regular monitoring.

Purpose: Why use a Theory of Change?
• Third, the theory of change is increasingly being utilized as a means for developing and managing partnerships
and partnership strategies.
 The process of agreeing on a theory of change establishes different views and assumptions among programme planners,
beneficiaries, donors, programme staff, etc.
 It can foster consensus and motivate stakeholders by involving them early in the planning process and by showing them
how their work contributes to long-term impact.
 It can help others to understand and support the UN’s contribution to change, as well as strengthen collaboration with
other organizations that aim to contribute to the same outcomes, leading to stronger or new partnerships and better
complementarity and coordination.
• Finally, a common theory of change for an IMLU is the basis for more effective and unified communication by
the IMLU by clearly articulating its shared vision and strategy for how change can happen.
 A theory of change diagram or short text is a neat and succinct way to summarize the purpose of the IMLU’s work and
communicate it to beneficiaries, stakeholders, donors, governments and other partners.
 It emphasizes real change to counterbalance discussions focused solely on resources, activities and outputs of different
members of the UNCT.

ToC 1: Women and Girls as Drivers of
Peace and the Prevention of Radicalization
IF female religious leaders have more knowledge and awareness on women’s rights and
tolerance; on the presence and risks of radical groups; have strengthened critical
thinking skills; feel more integrated into society and empowered to dialogue with duty
bearers; and know how to recognize vulnerable individuals (women and girls) and to
empower them and address their vulnerabilities:
THEN girls and women in the communities will be more resilient to radicalisation and
violent extremism:
BECAUSE the trained female religious leaders will feel a stronger sense for and belonging
to the community and will therefore raise awareness among girls and women in the
communities on the presence and risks of radical groups, and will proactively aim to
reduce the vulnerabilities of the vulnerable groups including through engaging them in
community initiatives.

ToC 2: Enhancing Early Warning & Prevention to Counter Hate
Speech and Incitement Ahead of the 2022 Elections in Kenya
 If the national early warning and response systems are properly capacitated and operational
through skilled personnel and clear strategies for implementation;
 if appropriate technological tools are in place and operational to provide regular
data, analysis and response;
 if coordination, collaborative partnerships and integration amongst the main early
warning and early response systems are enhanced;
 Then Kenya will have an effective early warning and response system capable of gathering timely
data, detecting and addressing hate speech, producing and disseminating preventive and positive
counter-narratives, designing timely and effective interventions, and connecting national and sub-
national actors, which will result if needed in reduction in the scale and spread of violence during
the electoral period and contribute to a conducive environment for peaceful and inclusive
elections.

Theory of Change: Main Questions
What is the programme?
What outcomes does the programme aim to achieve?
What intermediate steps lead to those outcomes?
What assumptions are associated with each link in the
causal chain?
How can we measure outcomes?

Project Cycle and Causal Hypothesis _ Theory of Change.pptx

Establish a clearly
articulated goal
based on self
assessment
Establish a theory
of change for
myself based on
what I know
about my own
learning
strategies.
Develop a logical
pathway (logic
model) to achieve
my goal.
Implement the
plan as
developed,
Reflect on my
new practices and
seek feedback
from others.
Adjust my
practices based
on what I am
learning.
Achieve my goal!

What is a Logic Model?
 “A program logic model is a picture of how your program works –
the theory and assumptions underlying the program. ...This model
provides a road map of your program, highlighting how it is expected
to work, what activities need to come before others, and how desired
outcomes are achieved.”
- W.K. Kellogg Foundation Evaluation
Handbook (1998, p. 35)
 “…a valuable tool for discovering and displaying the links between
activities and outcomes.” - New Directions for Evaluation (2008, p. 17)

Key Features of Logic Models
 Systematic – Visual – Dynamic – Flexible
 Sequential but not always linear
 Shows the “What” and “How” of your project/program
 May show the “Why” behind your project/program
 Shows area of strengths, weaknesses, gaps, and limitations
 Promotes strategic/programmatic management
 Typically has 5 components (e.g., Resources/Inputs, Activities, Outputs,
Outcomes, Impacts)

Basic Logic Model Outline
W.K. Kellogg Foundation (January 2004)

Basic Logic Model
Components
Resources/Inputs:
human, financial, organizational,
or community resources a
program has available to do the
work
Activities:
processes, tools, events,
technology, and actions that are
an intentional part of program
implementation

INTENDED RESULTS
 Outputs:
direct products of program activities
 Outcomes:
specific changes in program
participants’ behavior, knowledge,
skills, status
• Short-term: 1-3 years; Long-term: 4-6
years
 Impact:
fundamental intended or unintended change
as a result of program (outcomes 7-10 years)

Basic Logic Model Example
Put on Your
Dancing
Shoes
Go Dancing
w/Friends
Your Dance
Moves get
Posted on
YouTube
YouTube
Video goes
Viral
You become
Famous/
Overnight
Sensation

Logic Model “Logic”
Certain resources are needed to operate your project/program:
If . . . Then . . .
you have access to them, you can use them to accomplish your planned
activities.
you accomplish your planned
activities,
you will deliver the amount of
product/service that you intended.
you accomplish your planned
activities to the extent intended,
your participants will benefit in specific
ways.
these benefits are achieved, certain changes might occur under
specified conditions.

Why Use Logic Modeling?
Planning and Design
Implementation and Management
Evaluation and Communication

How Logic Models Better Position
Research/Programs for Success
Program Elements
Criteria for Program Success Benefits of Program Logic Models
Planning and Design
Program goals and objectives, and
important side effects are well defined
ahead of time.
Finds “gaps” in the theory or logic of a
program and work to resolve them.
Program goals and objectives are both
plausible and possible.
Builds a shared understanding of what the
program is all about and how the parts
work together.
Program Implementation
and Management
Relevant, credible, and useful performance
data can be obtained.
Focuses attention of management on the
most important connections between
action and results.
Evaluation,
Communication, and
Marketing
The intended users of the evaluation results
have agreed on how they will use the
information.
Provides a way to involve and engage
stakeholders in the design, processes, and
use of evaluation.

Theory of Change versus Logic Model
 What is a Theory of Change (ToC)?
 As the name suggests, a ToC is the thinking behind how a particular intervention will bring about results.
 It is the critical assumptions on how the eventual interventions bring about change.
 It is a comprehensive description and illustration of how and why a desired change is expected to happen
in a particular context.
 What is a Logic Model?
 This s a planning tool consisting of a matrix which provides an overview of a project’s goal, activities and
anticipated results.
 It provides a structure to help specify the components of a project and its activities and for relating them
to one another.
 It also identifies the measures by which the project’s anticipated results will be monitored.

Theory of Change versus
Logic Model cont.
Just as the photo of the
conjoined twins on the
right, both concepts
belong to same family
and are closely
connected but they are
not the same

What are the differences
between Theories of
Change and Logic Models

6. Beneficiaries
 Clearly identify direct and indirect
beneficiaries:
 Direct support to target group
 Indirect benefits to others
 How many?
 Where?
 Characteristics?
 Specify how and at what stage they
will be involved in the project
Contents

Project Cycle and Causal Hypothesis _ Theory of Change.pptx

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