Process Mining and Predictive Process Monitoring: From Technology to Business Value
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This document discusses process mining and predictive process monitoring. It begins with an overview of business process management and how process mining fits within the broader process architecture. It then covers the key techniques in process mining like process discovery, conformance checking, performance mining, and predictive process monitoring. Examples of process mining case studies in different domains are provided. The document concludes with a discussion of how process mining can be used to enable automated process improvement.
Process Mining and Predictive Process Monitoring: From Technology to Business Value
- 1. Process Mining and Predictive Process Monitoring From Technology to Business Value Marlon Dumas Professor of Information Systems @ University of Tartu Co-founder @ Apromore InnoCAPE Webinar, 17 April 2020
- 2. Business Process Management (BPM) 2 Process identification Conformance and performance insights Conformance and performance insights Process monitoring and controlling Executable process model Executable process model Process implementation To-be process model To-be process model Process analysis As-is process model As-is process model Process discovery Process architectureProcess architecture Process redesign Insights on weaknesses and their impact Insights on weaknesses and their impact
- 3. Performance Dashboards Process Mining Database Enterprise System Business Process Monitoring Event log Event stream 3
- 4. Structure of a Business Process Event Log
- 5. Process Mining 5 5 event log discovered process model Automated Process Discovery
- 6. Enter Loan Application Retrieve Applicant Data Compute Installments Approve Simple Application Approve Complex Application Notify Rejection Notify Eligibility CID Task Time Stamp … 13219 Enter Loan Application 2007-11-09 T 11:20:10 - 13219 Retrieve Applicant Data 2007-11-09 T 11:22:15 - 13220 Enter Loan Application 2007-11-09 T 11:22:40 - 13219 Compute Installments 2007-11-09 T 11:22:45 - 13219 Notify Eligibility 2007-11-09 T 11:23:00 - 13219 Approve Simple Application 2007-11-09 T 11:24:30 - 13220 Compute Installements 2007-11-09 T 11:24:35 - … … … … Process Map (directly follows graph) BPMN process model Automated Process Discovery 6
- 7. Process Mining 7 7 / event log discovered process model Automated Process Discovery Conformance Checking input process model
- 8. Unfitting behaviour: • Task C is optional (i.e. may be skipped) in the log Additional behavior: • The cycle including IGDF is not observed in the log Event log: ABCDEH ACBDEH ABCDFH ACBDFH ABDEH ABDFH Conformance Checking 8
- 9. Process Mining 9 9 / event log discovered process model Automated Process Discovery Conformance Checking Performance Mining input process model Enhanced process model
- 11. Process Mining 11 11 / event log discovered process model Automated Process Discovery Conformance Checking Variants Analysis Difference diagnostics Performance Mining input process model Enhanced process model event log’
- 12. Variant Analysis 12 Fast cases 75% Slow cases 25%Find differences in performance and control-flow between process variants, and their root causes
- 13. Predictive Process Monitoring • What is the next activity for this case? • When is this next activity going to take place? • How long is this case still going to take until it is finished? • What is the outcome of this case? • Is the compensation going to be paid? Or rejected? 13
- 14. Predictive Process Monitoring Event stream Predictive models Detailed predictive dashboard Alarm-based prescriptive dashboard Aggregate predictive dashboards Event logDatabase Enterprise System 14
- 15. Efficiency Compliance Quality AgilityTransparency Enhanced Process Models Log Animation Performance Dashboards Automated Process Discovery Filtering & Model Comparison Multi-Log Animation Comparative Dashboards Change Analysis Predictive Monitoring Prescriptive Monitoring Rule-Based Filtering Conformance Checking The Five Value Enablers of Process Mining Based on Kirchmer, Franz, Rosemann: “Value-Driven BPM”, 2011
- 16. Case Studies Transparency(Governmentcase study) An AustralianGovernmentdepartmentdiscoveredand analyseditsICTprocurementandportableelectronicdevicefulfillmentprocesses, fordifferenttypesofrequestsand regions.Theprojectincludedthe historicalanalysisofprocurementsacrosstwofinancialyears.Significantbehavioralandperformancedifferenceswereidentifiedacross variants. Efficiency (Manufacturing) AnAustralianfoodmanufacturingcompany analyzedcartonmovementsthroughoutfiveproductionplantsanda centralcold-store.Theyidentifiedprimaryand preferredprocessflows,conducted a comparisonofprocessvariantsandassociatedflowsthroughtheirfiveproductionplans, isolatedloops andbottlenecksand quantifiedinefficiencies. Quality(Insurance) Analysisofmotor-vehicleclaimshandlingprocessesat Unipol Sai(Italy(.Identifiedrootcausesofunderperformancein someofthecompany’ssubsidiaries.The organizationdeployeda predictivemonitoring dashboardtoanticipateSLA violationsand ameliorateresourceallocation.Theresults included improvementsin claimshandlingturnaroundtime ofseveraldaysanda reductionin errorrate. Compliance (Telco) AnAustraliannetworkidentifiedanomalies (non-compliantcases)in themanagementofnetworkincidentsandchangerequeststothenetworkinfrastructure.Theyusedvariantanalysistoidentifydifferences betweenregionstoidentifydeviationsandquantifytheirimpact.Theyapplied conformancecheckingagainstanormativeprocessmodel. Agility(Logistics) A logisticscompany intheMiddle Eastdeployeda custompredictivemonitoringdashboardprovidingdetailedand accurate predictionson delayeddeliveries(latesupplyandseverityofdelay)acrossmultiple regionsandshipmenttypes.
- 17. Efficiency Compliance Quality AgilityTransparency Lean Process Modeling & EA Six Sigma Quality Management Agile Frameworks e.g. SAFe GRC Frameworks Process Mining & Complementary Methods Based on Kirchmer, Franz, Rosemann: “Value-Driven BPM”, 2011
- 18. • Apromore Community Edition (free, unlimited) • Downloadable (docker) for on-premise deployment • https://apromore.org/platform/download/ • Community forum: http://forum.apromore.org • Apromore Enterprise Edition (Trial) • SaaS: https://apromore.org/platform/cloud/ • Sample log used today (production log) • https://data.4tu.nl/download/uuid:68726926-5ac5-4fab-b873-ee76ea412399/ (download the CSV file) Want to try out process mining on your own data? 18 http://apromore.org
- 19. • Automated discovery of simulation models • Enables data-driven “what-if” analysis of improvement options • http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2420/paperDT5.pdf • https://github.com/AdaptiveBProcess/Simod/ • Robotic Process Mining • Discovering executable routine specifications from UI logs • Task logging & mining: http://ceur-ws.org/Vol-2420/paperDT2.pdf • Discovering (manual) data transformation tasks: • https://arxiv.org/pdf/2001.01007.pdf • Automated discovery of control-flow, resource and decision improvement opportunities Beyond Process Mining: Automated Process Improvement 19
- 20. Automated Process Improvement 2 Officer Clerk Clerk Officer Officer Clerk Skip credit history check when customer has previous loans with bank Allocate an additional clerk on Monday-Tuesdays, one less officer on Fridays Task can be automated with an RPA script For consumer loans, check credit history before income If loan-to-annual- income ratio > 1.5, allocate a senior officer If credit rating is C or D, do not wait for appeal
- 21. Control-flow • Task elimination/addition • Merging/separation • Re-ordering, parallelization Decision (data) • Adding/deleting decision points • Refining/enhancing decision rules Resource • Re-allocating resources • Refining, enhancing allocation policies Task • (Partially) automating individual tasks or groups of tasks Automated Process Improvement: Types of Changes
- 22. Automated Process Improvement 22 22 event log Executable routine specifications Robotic Process Mining (Task Automation) Decision Rule Optimization Flow Optimization Optimized process model Resource Optimization Decision rules Optimized resource allocation policies Optimized decision rules
- 23. https://sep.cs.ut.ee/Main/PIX The Process Improvement Explorer (PIX)