Machine learning will transform how we deliver projects
- 1. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Machine learning will transform how we deliver projects James Smith PhD CTO Projecting Success jamessmith@projectingsuccess.co.uk PMI Webinar 22 October 2020
- 2. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Introduction • ~4 years ago Projecting Success realised that project data wasn’t being utilised • We founded the project data analytics community with >6000 members • We love to inspire people and upskill them • We are helping to provide thought leadership • It’s an area we can make a massive difference • We’re convinced it will be transformational
- 3. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Introduction A bit about me: • Mathematician by training • PhD/MSc/BSc in Applied Mathematics • Ex university lecturer • Data scientist, analyst, data engineer Scope includes creating predictive models, and leading our tech team, to training apprentices
- 4. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Menti 76 86 81 9
- 5. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Agenda 1. Recap 2. What is machine learning and how does it work? 3. How could it help to transform how we deliver projects? 4. Factors that influence accuracy 5. How difficult is it? 6. What can it do? 7. How to get started 8. Why data is so important 9. Why it doesn’t happen overnight 10.How to upskill your team and get ready
- 6. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Recap
- 7. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Recap https://tinyurl.com/yxnc2k3c • The potential impact of utilising data within projects • How to prepare yourself for the future • How you can get started
- 8. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 What is machine learning and how does it work?
- 9. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 What is machine learning? Machine learning algorithms use mathematics and statistics to find patterns in massive amounts of data. And data, here, encompasses a lot of things—numbers, words, images, clicks, videos, emails, reviews etc.. If it can be digitally stored, it can be fed into a machine learning algorithm. https://www.javatpoint.com/regression-vs-classification-in-machine-learning
- 10. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 What is machine learning? https://tinyurl.com/y5c3g4ma You’ll need the iris.csv data too. You can get that from my GitHub page ☺ Warning! Make sure you have permission to fork someone else’s code if you want to use it commercially. (This it’s my code – you’re fine) https://colab.research.google.com/
- 11. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 How could machine learning help to transform how we deliver projects?
- 12. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Does the same apply to projects? People are predisposed to illnesses Some driven by DNA, others by lifestyle factors.
- 13. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Certain projects are more predisposed to variance than others. We know this at a project level, but what about WBS, conditions, value, team? Which factors have greatest influence on the variance?
- 14. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 We know that there are patterns in the data. Maybe at a functional level (planning, risk, procurement) Maybe at an engineering level Machine learning helps us to discover those patterns
- 15. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Risk • Risks per workpackage or phase • Statistical probability & impact • Snowballing / interdependency • Risk vectors. Rate of change • Successful mitigation • Risk windows – heightened alert Schedule • Logic, nesting, dependencies • Benchmarking at any level • Plan vs out-turn and why • Predisposition to variance • Triggers and lead indicators Quality • Compliance to process • Lead indicators • Known areas of concern • Probability based on situation • Workface / product based insights Safety • Leveraging observation data • Predisposition to safety incidents • Condition/situation based risk • Wellbeing & fatigue • Informing toolbox talks Cost • Benchmarking at any level • Likelihood of variance • Triggers and lead indicators • Opportunities • Influence of market conditions Commercial • Compensation events • Predisposition to claims • Problematic terms and conditions • Planned vs out turn Change • Volume of change • Interdependence/snowballing • Predisposition of workpackages to change • Predictability of change Benefits & Outcomes • Actual vs planned • Predisposition to shortfall • Measured benefits • Lead indicators • Benchmarking Resources & Team • Optimal team resourcing • Lead indicators • Likely bottlenecks/critical resource • Team dynamics vs performance • Leadership style vs performance Almost Limitless Opportunities
- 16. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Factors that influence accuracy
- 17. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Factors that influence accuracy Not enough data Training on a poor sample from the dataset Incorrect/lack of transformation/cleaning Data that is not representative No predictive nature in the data Using the wrong model Poor feature engineering
- 18. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 How Difficult is It? Takes years of research to develop the algorithms…. ….Then they are open sourced in Python libraries and similar. And many more….
- 19. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 How Difficult is It?
- 20. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 What can it do?
- 21. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Schedule variance and areas of focus
- 22. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Bid Predictions and Analytics
- 23. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Sharktower
- 24. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020
- 25. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 PMO Predictive Analytics
- 26. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Menti 76 86 81 9 Projects using Machine Learning
- 27. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 How to get started
- 28. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Options YouTube Project Data Analyst Apprenticeship Communities MOOCs Rounded structured learning Based around project delivery Practical with support Time comitment On demand Great for casual learning Can be outdated There’s no one to ask On demand Micro courses Understand fundamentals Tough to stay motivated Full of bits that aren’t relevant Networking Develops confidence Sometimes there’s a global pandemic Increasinglevelofcommitment
- 29. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 How to get started https://tinyurl.com/y3zhmk9n
- 30. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Why data is so important
- 31. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Why data is so important Data - raw or unorganised facts Information - processed data to make it useful Knowledge - understanding of information
- 32. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Why it doesn’t happen overnight
- 33. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Challenges Data misaligned to the problems you are trying to solve Legacy data – digitised forms Siloed/unconnected data Data quality Insufficient data volumes Company rather than supply chain data Lack of data model and design Who owns the data? Can you use it? Trustworthiness in how you use data Everyone’s too busy No high level buy-in
- 34. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 You’ll Need A Strategy • As is…to be / Target operating model • End goal? • Roadmap • Funding • Sponsors / Champions • Governance • Skills / know how • Tools / architecture
- 35. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 Menti 76 86 81 9 Which strategy does your organisation have?
- 36. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 How to upskill your team and get ready
- 37. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 What mix do you need? Translator Generalist Practitioner Specialist Practitioner
- 38. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 "Project Controls are the data gathering, data management and analytical processes used to predict, understand and constructively influence the time and cost outcomes of a project or programme; through the communication of information in formats that assist effective management and decision making." Reimagining roles Applying the process of change, schedule, cost and risk control Or extracting insights from data to improve performance outcomes?
- 39. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 A specialist project data analytics role in a central team? A hybrid role, bringing analytics to transform the function and profession Data Analyst/Scientist Vs Data capability Project controls Project manager Engineer Document Controller Cost estimator BIM Logistics Risk Manager Benefits Manager Scrum Master Project manager Project controls Benefits Manager Data Scientist For high end challenges
- 40. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 • 15 month scheme • 95 OR 100% funded by government • Delivered by experts • Age range 19-60+ • Become a pathfinder • Get ready for a data driven future https://projectingsuccess.co.uk/capability#academy
- 41. Copyright Projecting Success 2020 Not to be reproduced without permission www.projectingsuccess.co.uk 22 October 2020 James Smith Dr James Smith CTO jamessmith@projectingsuccess.co.uk