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Multi Touch Attribution in Mobile
Adjust – Mobile Spree 2018
Agenda - Multi Touch Attribution
• Some Background
• Background on Multi Touch Attribution for Trendyol
• Concept of 'Marketing Value’
• Results of MTA
• Insights on MTA Results & Process
• What should you expect to see?
• What are the actions you can take?
2Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
Trendyol
• Largest e-commerce company in Turkey by orders, userbase
• Top 5 largest fashion e-commerce in Europe
• 100% growth in its 8th and 9th year (so far), profitable for 4 years,
• 2000 people team, has its own fashion collection for women, men,
kids, home.
• Covering 80% of Turkish female e-commerce shoppers in Turkey,
• 90% GMV from repeat customers
• ~75% of sales in mobile
3Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
Myself
• In Trendyol for the last 1,5 years, leading a team of 50+ people of
Analytics, CRM, Digital Marketing, Creative, Marcomm, Data Science
• Has worked for Peak Games for 5+ years, responsible for 100M+ USD
yearly marketing budget
• Responsible for the growth of Trendyol, Dolap
4Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
From ROAS => Marketing Value
• Problem: Comparing channels properly with respective to their short-
mid-long term gains (CRM, Acquisitional, Transactional Mktg, SM...)
• Problem: A Marketing source can bring revenue, new buyer,
download, initiates a strategic objective. What is the real value?
• Problem: Marketing objectives and priorities can change in time
• Problem: Tracking capabilities differ in Web & Mobile, Are we treating
mobile as we should?
5Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
From ROAS => Marketing Value
• Old: Looking at ROAS only for a fixed attribution model in web &
mweb, last click model in mobile
• New: Assigning a value for attributed New Buyer, Download, Profit
creating a ‘Virtual ROI’ => Marketing Value
• New: Multi Touch Attributed New Buyer in Web & Mweb
• New: Multi Touch Attributed New Buyer in Mobile
• New: Multi Touch Attributed Revenue in Mobile
6Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
Marketing Value Challenges & Advantages
Challenges
• Finding the ’incremental value’ of
new buyer, download
• Mobile Multi Touch Attribution
• Finding the right attribution
coefficients & interval
• Values may not be 100% correct.
• Cross Platform and branding
channels problem: Limited
visibility on all the value
• Soft Rules on MTA
7Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
Advantages
• Comparable channels and sources
• Marketing aligned with strategic
objectives
• Marketing aligned with current priorities
• More visibility on customer journey
Current Status on Attribution & Challenges
Current Status
• Different attribution models in different platforms
• Problems in analyses on marketing efficiency
• No neutral provider with MTA capabilities in mobile
Process Challenges
• Lack of data and tool availability, infrastructure
• Lack of industry know-how and best practices in mobile
• Source based problems in attribution funnel
8Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
Results (Mobile Engagement)
# of attributed transactions Lookback window %difference with respect to last touch
Network Last touch 7 days 15 days 30 days 7 days 15 days 30 days
Push 292,811 300,100 297,866 293,926 2% 2% 0%
Network A 84,994 84,817 85,169 86,137 0% 0% 1%
Organic 78,865 83,168 86,970 92,320 5% 10% 17%
Network B 78,260 85,624 88,135 91,947 9% 13% 17%
Network C 67,354 60,950 54,052 47,572 -10% -20% -29%
Network D 26,951 26,958 27,145 27,936 0% 1% 4%
Network E 23,518 29,488 34,775 40,291 25% 48% 71%
9Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
• Increase in organic helps us understand the real dynamics of channels,
looking at ROAS conservatively.
• Some channels stand still, they contribute all funnel evenly, some are
penalized.
Results (New Buyer Acquisition)
# of attributed new buyer Lookback window %difference with respect to last touch
Network last touch 7 days 15 days 30 days 7 days 15 days 30 days
Push 17,419 20,382 20,119 19,683 17% 16% 13%
Organic 11,393 11,752 12,202 12,988 3% 7% 14%
Network A 10,890 11,214 11,163 11,139 3% 3% 2%
Network B 13,622 14,030 13,077 11,987 3% -4% -12%
Network C 3,205 3,478 3,669 3,731 9% 14% 16%
Network D 1,613 1,676 1,668 1,724 4% 3% 7%
Network E 1,010 1,445 1,718 1,946 43% 70% 93%
10Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
• Push campaigns persuade new downloads into a purchase
• Some networks have a massive effect in new buyer acquisition
• There are many organic sessions in new buyer persuasion process.
Insights on Results and the Process
• Some sources are tricking «the last click attribution»
• Some sources have good invisible effects on user journey:
• Initiating a relation with a ‘product’
• Upper Funnel & Mid Funnel & Purchase Assists
• New Buyer conversion
• Not all retargeting is same, most retargeting on mobile clearly focuses on
lower funnel => Risk of organic cannibalization is real
• Male and female journeys are different both in time intervals, and in number
of assists
• iOS and Android users do not differ much, channels and ad units are the main
differentiators
11Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
Insights on Results and the Process
• Mweb journeys are difficult to track
• Push tracking dilutes & disrupts the digital marketing tracking
• Attribution time frame changes from a category to another
• Attribution model will probably change from a category to another
• We never see real organic and direct traffic in mobile from our current
infrastructure – Organic traffic is underrated
• Decomposing the sticky attribution of current last click attribution
model
• Needs more resources and is more difficult than it sounds :)
12Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
Next Steps
• Including ‘Uninstalls’ in the journey
• Assigning a marketing value for strategic objectives, new visits
• Testing out attribution model coefficients
• Ad Unit effect on attribution: Video vs. Rewarded Video vs. Static
• Trying out different attribution window
• Different attribution models and windows in different categories
• Multi Touch attribution in downloads (?)
• Cross Platform Attribution (?)
13Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
Why not download multi touch attribution?
• Previous Gaming experience: Do we really need an MTA for
download?
• Majority of Downloads in a few steps, in a very short short time
interval (Purchasing decision happens in 20+ steps, in 3-15 days)
• Technical difficulties even bigger than engagement
14Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
You can survive without MTA when...
• Your marketing is
• All Download
• All Acquisitional
• All Transactional
• Majority of spent is on a single provider
• Your company has:
• Small Userbase
• Similar Maturity level across the userbase
• Don’t have various strategic objectives for digital marketing
• No spare resource for analytics & data engineering
15Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
Summary & Q&A
16Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
• There is no one «true» model for attribution
• No clear downside for doing MTA as long as you have resources
• 80% Accuracy in MTA > Just Doing MTA >> Not Doing MTA
• MTA should incorporate your marketing strategy
• MTA coefficients and soft rules can change in time and in context
Thanks!
Mobile Multi Touch Attribution

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A Multi-Touch Attribution In Mobile Retrospective With Trendyol

  • 1. Multi Touch Attribution in Mobile Adjust – Mobile Spree 2018
  • 2. Agenda - Multi Touch Attribution • Some Background • Background on Multi Touch Attribution for Trendyol • Concept of 'Marketing Value’ • Results of MTA • Insights on MTA Results & Process • What should you expect to see? • What are the actions you can take? 2Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
  • 3. Trendyol • Largest e-commerce company in Turkey by orders, userbase • Top 5 largest fashion e-commerce in Europe • 100% growth in its 8th and 9th year (so far), profitable for 4 years, • 2000 people team, has its own fashion collection for women, men, kids, home. • Covering 80% of Turkish female e-commerce shoppers in Turkey, • 90% GMV from repeat customers • ~75% of sales in mobile 3Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
  • 4. Myself • In Trendyol for the last 1,5 years, leading a team of 50+ people of Analytics, CRM, Digital Marketing, Creative, Marcomm, Data Science • Has worked for Peak Games for 5+ years, responsible for 100M+ USD yearly marketing budget • Responsible for the growth of Trendyol, Dolap 4Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
  • 5. From ROAS => Marketing Value • Problem: Comparing channels properly with respective to their short- mid-long term gains (CRM, Acquisitional, Transactional Mktg, SM...) • Problem: A Marketing source can bring revenue, new buyer, download, initiates a strategic objective. What is the real value? • Problem: Marketing objectives and priorities can change in time • Problem: Tracking capabilities differ in Web & Mobile, Are we treating mobile as we should? 5Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
  • 6. From ROAS => Marketing Value • Old: Looking at ROAS only for a fixed attribution model in web & mweb, last click model in mobile • New: Assigning a value for attributed New Buyer, Download, Profit creating a ‘Virtual ROI’ => Marketing Value • New: Multi Touch Attributed New Buyer in Web & Mweb • New: Multi Touch Attributed New Buyer in Mobile • New: Multi Touch Attributed Revenue in Mobile 6Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
  • 7. Marketing Value Challenges & Advantages Challenges • Finding the ’incremental value’ of new buyer, download • Mobile Multi Touch Attribution • Finding the right attribution coefficients & interval • Values may not be 100% correct. • Cross Platform and branding channels problem: Limited visibility on all the value • Soft Rules on MTA 7Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol Advantages • Comparable channels and sources • Marketing aligned with strategic objectives • Marketing aligned with current priorities • More visibility on customer journey
  • 8. Current Status on Attribution & Challenges Current Status • Different attribution models in different platforms • Problems in analyses on marketing efficiency • No neutral provider with MTA capabilities in mobile Process Challenges • Lack of data and tool availability, infrastructure • Lack of industry know-how and best practices in mobile • Source based problems in attribution funnel 8Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
  • 9. Results (Mobile Engagement) # of attributed transactions Lookback window %difference with respect to last touch Network Last touch 7 days 15 days 30 days 7 days 15 days 30 days Push 292,811 300,100 297,866 293,926 2% 2% 0% Network A 84,994 84,817 85,169 86,137 0% 0% 1% Organic 78,865 83,168 86,970 92,320 5% 10% 17% Network B 78,260 85,624 88,135 91,947 9% 13% 17% Network C 67,354 60,950 54,052 47,572 -10% -20% -29% Network D 26,951 26,958 27,145 27,936 0% 1% 4% Network E 23,518 29,488 34,775 40,291 25% 48% 71% 9Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol • Increase in organic helps us understand the real dynamics of channels, looking at ROAS conservatively. • Some channels stand still, they contribute all funnel evenly, some are penalized.
  • 10. Results (New Buyer Acquisition) # of attributed new buyer Lookback window %difference with respect to last touch Network last touch 7 days 15 days 30 days 7 days 15 days 30 days Push 17,419 20,382 20,119 19,683 17% 16% 13% Organic 11,393 11,752 12,202 12,988 3% 7% 14% Network A 10,890 11,214 11,163 11,139 3% 3% 2% Network B 13,622 14,030 13,077 11,987 3% -4% -12% Network C 3,205 3,478 3,669 3,731 9% 14% 16% Network D 1,613 1,676 1,668 1,724 4% 3% 7% Network E 1,010 1,445 1,718 1,946 43% 70% 93% 10Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol • Push campaigns persuade new downloads into a purchase • Some networks have a massive effect in new buyer acquisition • There are many organic sessions in new buyer persuasion process.
  • 11. Insights on Results and the Process • Some sources are tricking «the last click attribution» • Some sources have good invisible effects on user journey: • Initiating a relation with a ‘product’ • Upper Funnel & Mid Funnel & Purchase Assists • New Buyer conversion • Not all retargeting is same, most retargeting on mobile clearly focuses on lower funnel => Risk of organic cannibalization is real • Male and female journeys are different both in time intervals, and in number of assists • iOS and Android users do not differ much, channels and ad units are the main differentiators 11Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
  • 12. Insights on Results and the Process • Mweb journeys are difficult to track • Push tracking dilutes & disrupts the digital marketing tracking • Attribution time frame changes from a category to another • Attribution model will probably change from a category to another • We never see real organic and direct traffic in mobile from our current infrastructure – Organic traffic is underrated • Decomposing the sticky attribution of current last click attribution model • Needs more resources and is more difficult than it sounds :) 12Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
  • 13. Next Steps • Including ‘Uninstalls’ in the journey • Assigning a marketing value for strategic objectives, new visits • Testing out attribution model coefficients • Ad Unit effect on attribution: Video vs. Rewarded Video vs. Static • Trying out different attribution window • Different attribution models and windows in different categories • Multi Touch attribution in downloads (?) • Cross Platform Attribution (?) 13Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
  • 14. Why not download multi touch attribution? • Previous Gaming experience: Do we really need an MTA for download? • Majority of Downloads in a few steps, in a very short short time interval (Purchasing decision happens in 20+ steps, in 3-15 days) • Technical difficulties even bigger than engagement 14Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
  • 15. You can survive without MTA when... • Your marketing is • All Download • All Acquisitional • All Transactional • Majority of spent is on a single provider • Your company has: • Small Userbase • Similar Maturity level across the userbase • Don’t have various strategic objectives for digital marketing • No spare resource for analytics & data engineering 15Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol
  • 16. Summary & Q&A 16Mobile Multi Touch Attribution - Trendyol • There is no one «true» model for attribution • No clear downside for doing MTA as long as you have resources • 80% Accuracy in MTA > Just Doing MTA >> Not Doing MTA • MTA should incorporate your marketing strategy • MTA coefficients and soft rules can change in time and in context