Intoduction to E F F E C T
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This document summarizes the use of the EFFECT modeling tool to help develop low-carbon growth scenarios and strategies for Indonesia and other developing Asian countries. EFFECT is an Excel-based bottom-up model that analyzes abatement opportunities and emission reductions across key sectors like power, transport, and buildings. The modeling will develop business-as-usual and low-carbon scenarios from 2010-2050 to inform climate policies and development plans. Close collaboration with local experts is needed to ensure accurate country-specific data and assumptions are used. The goal is to build local capacity to utilize these tools for long-term low-carbon planning and policymaking.
Intoduction to E F F E C T
- 1. Strengthening Planning Capacity for Low- Carbon Growth in Developing Asia TA-7645 Tools to Help Transiting to a Low Carbon Economy INDONESIA LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT FORUM 11 – 12 October, 2012 Jakarta, Indonesia
- 2. Green Growth Involves agreeing on many cross-sector adaptation and mitigation measures Is about generating an enabling environment (reinforced development planning, new policies, new markets)
- 3. Green Growth is first and foremost about Development Needs to value all of the benefits: GHG Mitigation Climate Resilience Energy Security Economic growth and stability Trade Balance Job creation and skill sets Inflation Quality of Life, etc And reach consensus amongst multiple stakeholders: Investment priorities and amounts Enabling policies, etc
- 4. To EFFECT Low Carbon Development Several tools are required to answer different questions Top-down Impact on Economic growth, Abatement opportunities Employment, Technologies Trade, Investments Production choices, etc. Additional costs Bottom-up
- 5. Model suite for low carbon growth assessment World Induced Technical Change Hybrid WITCH Integrated Assessment model Recursive dynamic CGE multicountry- ICES multisector model with international trade Energy Forecasting Framework and EFFECT Emissions Consensus Tool
- 6. What is EFFECT? • Developed by the World Bank originally for the India Low Carbon Growth Planning Study • Excel-based, bottom-up, engineering style model • Supports consensus building and planning in key sectors of the economy • Helps assess the impact of policy choices on GHG emission levels
- 7. Ribbon-based navigation, analysis and help
- 8. Easy to understand, adaptable, modifiable
- 9. Used previously by the World Bank and others in many countries and cities Power Sector – India, Nigeria Transport – 9 Cities and 7 countries: Bangkok, Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, Manila, Ulaanbaatar India, Brazil ,Poland, Macedonia, Georgia, Nigeria, Basis for CTF measurement methodology Household electricity – India, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Macedonia Nonresidential and Industry – India, Macedonia
- 10. Current modules Land Transport Power Industry Household Electricity Non-residential
- 11. EFFECT has been extensively customized by ADB specifically for this regional TA • Modeling period extended to 2050 • CO2 emissions factors and Net Calorific Values now comply with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines • Contains 45 technologies for power generation • New Investment Learning Curve Effect • Includes process and project contingencies • New MAC Curve drawing utility and results summary • Major improvement to vintaging calculations on all appliances • Additional Appliances and major changes to lighting energy forecasts • etc
- 12. How will EFFECT be used in TA-7645? Strengthening Planning Capacity for Low-Carbon Growth in Developing Asia Work with Country Experts and Counterparts with: 1 Objective: Facilitate transition towards low-carbon development 2 Scenarios: Develop a “business-as-usual” reference scenario 2010-2050 and low-carbon scenario taking into account suitable technology options in the sectors Feed into the CGE modeling effort 3 Sectors: Household Electricity consumption, Land Transport, Power Generation 5 countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam
- 13. Objective: Facilitate transition towards low- carbon development development and application of country-specific low-carbon growth modeling framework that is transparent, flexible, and user-friendly analysis to help create/update low-carbon roadmaps and provide input to development plans based on the framework training sessions and hands-on computer workshops to enhance the capacity of relevant agencies/institutions to maintain and utilize the models and associated database for planning purposes serve as a platform for experience sharing, policy dialogue and cooperation
- 14. Current Status with Indonesia Transport, Household electricity consumption, Power generation Modules are customized for Indonesia and already populated with initial baseline data for analysis and discussion Training underway 1st Workshop in Bangkok (March 2012) 2nd Workshop in Jakarta (Oct 11-12, 2012)
- 15. To be EFFECTive this exercise needs strong local commitment on Data and Assumptions Bottom-up modeling requires a lot of micro-level data To be useful, the data must be : Detailed and good quality Country-specific Freely sharable Recent and regularly updated Final Goal: to be managed by the country in a data system This is a rigorous exercise that will help set the stage for measuring future achievements
- 16. Next Steps Close involvement with local counterparts to: 1. Agree on historic data and cross-country comparisons used 2. Agree specific additional data needs and define data collection plans 3. Agree on assumptions to be used to 2050 4. Further training 5. Possible uptake of the EFFECT model by a local institution
- 17. Thank You John Rogers jar@tstes.com