Modeling and Data-Analysis in Developing Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies
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This document provides an agenda for a webinar on modeling and data analysis for developing long-term climate strategies under the Paris Agreement. The webinar will include presentations on the role of modeling in long-term strategies, capacity building for modeling and analysis, and using models to explore implications of uncertainties. There will also be a question and answer session. The goal is to discuss how countries can use robust modeling and analysis to inform the development of their long-term climate strategies.
Modeling and Data-Analysis in Developing Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies
- 1. LONG-TERM CLIMATE STRATEGIES UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT 2019 WEBINAR SERIES MODELING AND DATA ANALYSIS IN DEVELOPING LONG-TERM STRATEGIES October 31, 2019 9:00 am EDT (13:00 GMT)
- 2. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies AGENDA • Welcome (3 mins) – Ichiro Sato, World Resources Institute (WRI) • Brief Introduction to Long-term Strategies (LTS) (5 mins) – Richard Baron, 2050 Pathways Platform • Role of modeling and model-based analysis (15 mins) – James Edmonds, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) / University of Maryland • Capacity building for modeling and analysis (15 mins) – Marcela Jaramillo Gil, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) • Using models to explore implications of uncertainties (5 mins) – Ichiro Sato, WRI • Question & Answer (15 mins) – Moderated by Richard Baron, 2050 Pathways Platform • Closing (2 mins) – Ichiro Sato
- 3. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies • Join audio: – Preferred method: through Computer Audio – Back-up: choose Telephone and dial-in using the phone numbers listed in the webinar confirmation email • Please select “Q&A” at the bottom of your screen to submit questions for the Q&A session • Attendees remain in listen-only mode • Note: Today’s presentation is being recorded and will be provided ATTENDEE PARTICIPATION If you experience technical problems during the webinar, please email Mary Levine: Mary.Levine@wri.org
- 4. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies LONG-TERM LOW-EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES Richard Baron 2050 Pathways Platform
- 5. 2050 PATHWAYS PLATFORM - PRESENTATION 5 Long-term Strategies: State of Play
- 6. 6 Typology of long-term strategies (LT-LEDS) - focus on mitigation - Explore the long-term Model-based scenarios Test technology options Initiate a domestic discussion International LT pledge State a LT emission goal ‘Back-cast’ sectoral emissions pathway Detail a policy roadmap Set in broader socio- economic context Declaration of intent Indicate overall ambition Identify sectoral challenges and opportunities Opens a domestic discussion Japan Germany UK Costa Rica Benin Norway US Canada Mexico Czech R. Ukraine EU Fiji France Portugal RMI Note: Countries in italics have not submitted their LT-LEDS document yet
- 7. Process for a robust long-term strategy 7
- 8. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies ROLE OF MODELING AND MODEL-BASED ANALYSIS Jae Edmonds PNNL / University of Maryland
- 9. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE 9 The Paris Agreement of 2015 • A goal: “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”
- 10. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE 10 Getting to Zero—Five strategy elements • Energy efficiency—reduce demand for energy as much as economical • Decarbonize power generation • Fossil fuel with CCS • Renewable power • Nuclear power • Bioenergy • Bioenergy with CCS • Electrify Buildings and Industry as much as economical • Decarbonize transport • Electrify • Biofuels • H2 • Halt deforestation/afforestation and continue improving crop yields Source: http://www.energy.gov/science-innovation/energy-sources/renewable-energy/wind
- 11. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE 11 ALL sectors need to get close to zero or less Source: IPCC, AR5, SPM
- 12. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE 12 Models AND scenarios are tools GCAM Models and Scenarios are tools for thinking about the future and exploring alternative pathways, So that good outcomes can be identified And bad outcomes can be avoided or at least anticipated Models are similarly a tool for exploring quantitative pathways They keep the accounts straight They provide insights that might have otherwise gone overlooked
- 13. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE 13 Co-development of knowledge Models alone cannot provide a pathway to deep decarbonization • Any path to deep decarbonization needs to be co-developed with those who will need to implement that path. • Those who are going to implement the path need to own the path
- 14. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE 14 Everybody learns along the way Models provide a reality check for users. Users provide a reality check for modelers. Meet, model, meet again, model again, repeat Three pathways developed under the PATHWAYS TO 2050 study led by C2ES
- 15. DRAFT PRESENTATION—DO NOT QUOTE, SUBJECT TO CHANGE 15 More models are better • Many methods and models are available, but no model does everything best. • At a recent workshop on multi-scale and economics there were calls for more and better simple models, more and better complex models, more and better sectoral models, and more and better regional models. There is no “one model to rule them all.”
- 16. DISCUSSION 16
- 17. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies CAPACITY BUILDING FOR MODELING AND ANALYSIS Marcela Jaramillo Gil Inter-American Development Bank
- 18. Marcela Jaramillo marcelaja@iadb.org Long-term strategies IDB’s Approach 18
- 19. Why decarbonization and what is the role of an LTS? 19
- 20. To meet Paris it is necessary to achieve zero net CO2 emissions between 2050 and 2070 20 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 ShareofCO2emissions(LAC) Transport Power and heat Industry Buildings
- 21. A world with zero net emissions is technically possible, building on 5 pillars 21 A world with zero net emission is an economic opportunity, not necessarily a cost
- 22. Governments face three main challenges on the road from here to there 22
- 23. 23 Challenge 1: Providing regulations, price signals, and financing that enable business models for low-carbon solutions
- 24. 24 Challenge 2: Dealing with the political economy of emission reduction policies (winners and losers) 24
- 25. -20% -100% Emissionreduction Time The objective for the strategy up to 2025 is to build the foundation for a deep decarbonization (not just to achieve a given level of reduction) Challenge 3: Aligning short-term NDCs and policies with the need for long- term decarbonization 25
- 26. Long-term decarbonization strategies (LTS) recognize the long-term goal, and help navigate the three challenges in the transition 1. LTSs establish a clear vision of a carbon-free future that brings prosperity • Improving public transportation will improve quality of life and business environment (Costa Rica) 2. LTS allow anticipating costs and manage tradeoffs for a just transition • Aligning fiscal rules with decarbonization objectives 3. They are the basis for deciding medium-term objectives and immediate action • Costa Rica: 85% electric buses by 2050 -> 30% by 2030 -> update regulations and concessions in 2021 26
- 27. 27 Strengthen local capacity to research long-term strategies 1 Supporting the design of LTS to inform NDCs using robust analytic tools and processes 2 Supporting LTS and NDC implementation 3 Thinking Local Planning Beyond Acting Now With NDC Invest we are supporting countries to advance work on LTS
- 28. 28 Strengthen local capacity to research long-term strategies 1 Supporting the design of LTS to inform NDCs using robust analytic tools and processes 2 Supporting LTS and NDC implementation 3 Thinking Local Planning Beyond Acting Now With NDC Invest we are supporting countries to advance work on LTS
- 29. Mexico’s Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy The key is to think of short-term targets within long-term decarbonization pathways 29
- 30. Currently, academic analysis of emission reduction strategies largely rely on external expertise: the example of Mexico’s strategy Massachusetts, USA Maryland, USA Netherlands Pennsylvania, USA France Netherlands Veysey, Jason, Claudia Octaviano, Katherine Calvin, Sara Herreras Martinez, Alban Kitous, James McFarland, and Bob van der Zwaan. 2016. “Pathways to Mexico’s Climate Change Mitigation Targets: A Multi-Model Analysis.” Energy Economics 56 (May): 587–99. 30
- 31. DDP-LAC: objectives To improve the capacity of the LAC region to rely on independent, domestic evaluations to assess their NDCs, emission reduction plans, and climate policies. 1. Train academic teams and/or think tanks in the use of models they cannot currently use. 2. Generate emission reduction pathways for their respective countries to support a public debate the implementation of the Paris Agreement. 3. Showcase these models to local policymakers, prove their value to inform policy decisions, and start a dialogue, using the new modeling capacity to answer a research question of relevance to the national context. 4. Develop a regional community of practice through regional workshops where teams can compare their approaches and share lessons learned. 31
- 32. Improving academic capacity to inform LTS Models are built directly in country teams and will stay there to be used free of charge and autonomously by local teams Teams Country Local Institution International Institution Sector Focus Model Government focal point Argentina Fundación Bariloche CIRED - France Macroeconomic Energy (Power and transport) LEAP-IMACLIM Dirección de CC Min Ambiente & Sec. de Escenarios, Min Energía. Colombia Universidad de los Andes & Rosario PNNL - USA Energy, land and water GCAM Dirección de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible DNP Costa Rica Universidad de Costa Rica Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) - Sweden Transport and electricity CRI-IAM-ALPHA Dirección de CC, MINAE. Ecuador Escuela Politécnica Nacional COPPE, Uni. Federal do Rio de Janeiro - Brazil Energy (Power and transport) and Land Use ELENA (MESSAGE-based) Subsectretaria de CC, MAE Mexico Tempus Análitica Evolved Energy Research - USA Transport Energy-PATHWAYS INECC and SEMARNAT Perú Universidad del Pacífico U of Tennessee - USA Land-use POLYSYS Dirección de CC, CEPLAN 32
- 33. DDP-LAC Timeframes / Outputs 2018 2019 1st Regional Meeting Colombia – Feb 2nd Regional Meeting México – Oct 3rd Regional Meeting Costa Rica - March 4th Regional Meeting Ecuador - Sep Work plans finalized Models & definition of scenarios Advanced Narratives & initial results Policy question & DDP scenarios Model work & dashboards completed Ambition paper COP25 Academic papers & results of inter-model comparison Early 2020 Training workshops, model development Initial contact with government Narratives and scenario development Finalize model, finalize narratives & scenarios Continue policy dialogue and clarify policy-relevant questions Publish results of decarbonization pathways 33
- 34. DDPLAC is impacting public policy in LAC for LTS design and implementation 34 Supporting the design of LTS to inform NDCs using robust analytic tools and processes 1 Supporting the design of LTS to inform NDCs using robust analytic tools and processes 2 Supporting LTS and NDC implementation. 3 Thinking Local Planning Beyond Acting Now
- 36. ✓ The plan responds to the need to achieve zero net emissions between 2050 and 2070. ✓ Informs the design of the new NDC in the country. ✓ It frames decarbonization as an opportunity to reactivate the national economy. ✓ Define specific actions for the short term. The Costa Rican Plan sets a target of net zero emissions by 2050
- 37. Define for each area of action up to 2022: Specific objectives, goals, indicators, activities and key actors. The Plan identifies short, medium- and long-term actions in 10 areas of action
- 38. Robust cost-benefit analysis of decarbonizing the transport sector • Involve stakeholders to reflect their goals and ideas • Simulate large number of possible futures and policies to explore uncertainty • Identify robust options using decision-making methods under uncertainty • Build local capacity in universities to extend autonomous and independent policy analysis in Costa Rica The analysis will be extended to all the other sector in the decarbonization plan. 38 “Costa Rica will have with the National Decarbonization Plan - in the transport sector - benefits of $ 19.5 billion.” “In addition to health benefits and increased productivity that represent a total of $ 14,3 billion by 2050”.
- 39. + Otros ministerios sectoriales. Policy reforms focus Electrification of uses of Energy Agriculture and nature-based solutions Governance and MRV for the decarbonization Acting now: helping policy reform in Costa Rica
- 40. What is next? LTS 2020 40 And launch DDPLAC2 in 2020
- 41. Thanks for your attention! Marcela Jaramillo marcelaja@iadb.org 41
- 42. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies USING MODELS TO EXPLORE IMPLICATIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES Ichiro Sato WRI
- 43. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies • Uncertainty is a major challenge in developing long-term strategies USING MODELS TO EXPLORE IMPLICATIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES Now 2050 GHG emissions ?Uncertainties Technological innovations Shocks/crisis Political/social dynamics Economic development
- 44. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies • Model-based analysis can be used to help identify material uncertainties, and robust strategies to address them USING MODELS TO EXPLORE IMPLICATIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES GHG emissions in 2050 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario N .............. MODEL Strategy A
- 45. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies USING MODELS TO EXPLORE IMPLICATIONS OF UNCERTAINTIES To learn more, please visit WRI Working Paper: UNCERTAINTY, SCENARIO ANALYSIS, AND LONG-TERM STRATEGIES: STATE OF PLAY AND A WAY FORWARD https://www.wri.org/publication/uncertainty-scenario-analysis-long- term-strategies
- 46. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies QUESTION & ANSWER SESSION Richard Baron 2050 Pathways Platform
- 47. Modeling and data analysis in developing long-term strategies LONG-TERM CLIMATE STRATEGIES UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT 2019 WEBINAR SERIES THANK YOU! For more information, please visit the Long-Term Climate Strategies website: https://www.wri.org/climate/long-term-strategies Subscribe to the newsletter here: http://connect.wri.org/l/120942/2018-04-05/3rr42w For questions on the webinar series, please contact: Mary Levine, World Resources Institute (Mary.Levine@wri.org)