How to predict almost anything
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The document explores various prediction methods for anticipating future business trends, such as historical analogy, vertical and horizontal trend extrapolation, and Fermi's method. It highlights the challenges associated with these methods, including selecting the right variables and avoiding false analogies. Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of audience engagement through practical examples and exercises to improve predictive accuracy.
![Audience
Engagement #1
[We’ll work through an example with the
audience about the best time for a founder in any
given industry to fundraise and deliver an exact
answer down to the best quarter to do it]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sxsw2018pdfversion-170719184044/85/How-to-predict-almost-anything-21-320.jpg)
![Audience
Engagement #2
[We’ll ask the audience for burning questions in their businesses
and then work through a method for finding the answer]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sxsw2018pdfversion-170719184044/85/How-to-predict-almost-anything-22-320.jpg)
How to predict almost anything
- 1. Predicting the Future of Your Business
- 2. Why try to predict the future? I skate to where the puck is going to be. - Wayne Gretzky
- 3. Prediction Methods • Historical Analogy (Adoption of Self Driving Cars) • Vertical Trend Extrapolation (The Singularity) • Horizontal Trend Extrapolation (Growth of E-commerce) • Fermi’s Method (Drake Equation)
- 4. Problems With Prediction • Asking the right questions • Finding the right variables • Choosing the right inputs for the variables • Screening false analogies • Accounting for breaks in trends
- 5. Pros and Cons of Historical Analogy “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” - George Santayana •Is the analogy apt? •Have conditions changed?
- 6. Historical Analogy How quickly will self driving cars be broadly adopted? Lets look at the closest analogy. The shift from horses to cars. • Identify the Question • What is a good analogy? • What happened in the original case? • How does that map to current trends?
- 9. Can we actually transition that quickly? YES!
- 10. Vertical Trend Extrapolation Pros and Cons •Will the trend continue indefinitely? •What factors supported the trend in the past and will they continue?
- 11. Vertical Trend Extrapolation How soon can we expect the singularity to occur? • What is driving the singularity? • What does the trend look like now, when will it intersect with the singularity? • What might intervene in the trend continuing?
- 13. Horizontal Trend Extrapolation Pros and Cons • Is the trend in instance “A” actually present in instance “B”? • If so, why has instance B not kept pace, what will release the trend now?
- 14. Horizontal Trend Extrapolation • What is the current state of African E-Commerce? • What are the currently operative trends? • How do those starting points compare to e- commerce in other geographies around the globe? • How did e-commerce in those geographies develop from those points in time? What will African E-commerce look like in 15 years?
- 15. State of Global E-Commerce Today
- 16. Barriers to E-Commerce in Africa • Internet Connectivity • Infrastructure & Logistics • Trust and Payments • Decentralization of Commerce
- 17. Fermi’s Method Pros and Cons Difficulty in identifying the appropriate variables Difficulty in choosing inputs (i.e. garbage in garbage out)
- 18. Fermi’s Method What are the chance of us discovering intelligent life in the Milky Way? The Drake equation….
- 19. Fermi’s Method
- 20. Applying this today • Track the questions you have. • Review them regularly • Select the most important • Pick a methodology • Persist • Refine • Attack from multiple angles
- 21. Audience Engagement #1 [We’ll work through an example with the audience about the best time for a founder in any given industry to fundraise and deliver an exact answer down to the best quarter to do it]
- 22. Audience Engagement #2 [We’ll ask the audience for burning questions in their businesses and then work through a method for finding the answer]