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Prospection, Prediction and Management
of Archaeological Sites in Alluvial
Environments
Keith Challis, Mark Kincey and Andy J Howard,
IBM Vista, University of Birmingham
U B
Outline
• Study Areas
• Prospection
• Assessing Preservation
• Predictive Management
• Critique
Study Areas
Three, c.300km2
study areas
• MTV Derbyshire
• MTV Newark
• LTV Gainsborough
30k ha terrace
35k ha floodplain
144 SAM
11,222 HER records
2254 Aimee (NMR) records
Prospection
Prospection
• Traditionally focused
on known sites
• Conventional
photography
• Landscape scale
• Filling gaps
• Newer digital
techniques
Prospection
Conventional Aerial
Photography
• Extensive opportunistic
flying
• Good years reveal much
• Not Systematic
• Limited by crop response
• Visible spectrum(390-
750nm)
Prospection
Prospection
Multispectral and
Hyperspectral
• No systematic surveys
• Research suggests huge
potential
• Extended visibility beyond
visible spectrum
• Rapid area surveys
• Satellite imagery
Prospection
Prospection
Airborne Lidar
• 3D record of topography at
very high resolution
• Systematic survey by
Environment Agency
• Upstanding and buried sites
• Assessment of preservation
• Change detection (multi
temporal survey)
Prospection
Assessing Preservation
Hyperspectral Techniques
• Adaptation of vegetation
monitoring
• Ratios of reflectance in
different spectral bands
reflect vegetation vigour
• NDVI (Normalised
difference vegetation)
• Tasselled Cap
Assessing Preservation
Assessing Preservation
Airborne Lidar Intensity
• NIR reflectance enhanced
detection of vegetation
and soil properties
• Not a robust indicator
• No systematic collection
• Much work to be done
Assessing Preservation
Predictive Management
Problem
• Information on heritage assets resides in
expert hands
• Issues of availability / confidentiality
• Discrete, not continuous record
• Articulated need for “red flag” mapping
• How to achieve this without alienation of
some stakeholders
Goals
• To provide interpreted
information to non-expert
users
• Models rooted in
knowledge base
• Not to usurp the HER as
a source of data or to
undermine curatorial
prerogative
Approach: User-focused
• Understand what users
need, how they think and
work
• Model the knowledge-
based approach of expert
users “topsight” (Gelernter
1992)
• Presentation of results
structured to fit the real-
world and in a user friendly
medium
Approach: Simplify
• Inductive (data driven)
rather than deductive
(theory driven)
• Simplify and summarise
(the detail is in the HER)
• Validate through user
feedback (rather than test
and quantify)
Approach: Model Objectives
The completed models will provide per parcel scores for:
• The predicted archaeological potential of all land parcels.
• The aggregate bearing potential and value of all land parcels.
• The susceptibility of individual land parcels to field evaluation
techniques.
• The likely physical condition of buried cultural remains.
• The risk of encountering buried waterlogged organic remains.
• The level of impact that different forms of extraction may have on
the archaeological record
• The importance of archaeology in the light of regional priorities.
• The likely mitigation needs in the light of PPG 16 guidance
Method: Predictive Models
• Classic predictive
modelling
• Big, empty,
heterogeneous areas
(2500km2 /
21 sites)
• Assess and weigh
environmental factors
• Weights inform model
• Such models are
inappropriate for the
TV
• c. 40% of land parcels
contain a record
• Eg. Newark, 1254
parcels out of 5012
Method: Predictive Models
Method: Our Data Model
• OS MasterMap® as a
spatial framework
• Raster based GIS
models
• 50m grid (200k cells)
Method: Model Building
• Source data is rasterised
• Simplified scores are
applied or extracted
• Models are based on
weighted means of
scores
• Blank areas filled using
landscape classification
and spatial modelling
Terrace: Score = 3
Method: Per Parcel Results
• Calculations reclassified
to 5 level scale from low
risk to high
• Aggregated model scores
devolved to level of an
OS MasterMap® TOID
• Built up parcels, water
and parcels less than 1ha
in extent excluded
Delivery
• Data for stakeholder GIS (tables of values for each TOID)
Delivery
• Interactive using embedded Google Earth application
Critique
• “Topsight” is not necessarily the same thing as predictive
modelling or risk mapping
• Modelling period based activity and intensity of activity is
problematic
• It would be possible model individual classes of
monument with clear geographic preferences (eg burnt
mounds)
• Perhaps general models are the most helpful
• The meaning of results is imprecise and open to
misinterpretation
Concluding Thoughts
Prospection
• Non-photographic techniques offer huge potential, but uptake issues
(availability, cost, education)
• In fact, in times of limited finances reliance on traditional techniques may
not be cost-effective
Predictive Management
• Need for strategic management of heritage assets is axiomatic
• System adoption requires clear joined-up thinking at high level
• Possible conflict with aggregate resource assessments in England
• Do we need another level of information?

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Prospection, Prediction and Management of Archaeological Sites in Alluvial Environments

  • 1. Prospection, Prediction and Management of Archaeological Sites in Alluvial Environments Keith Challis, Mark Kincey and Andy J Howard, IBM Vista, University of Birmingham U B
  • 2. Outline • Study Areas • Prospection • Assessing Preservation • Predictive Management • Critique
  • 3. Study Areas Three, c.300km2 study areas • MTV Derbyshire • MTV Newark • LTV Gainsborough 30k ha terrace 35k ha floodplain 144 SAM 11,222 HER records 2254 Aimee (NMR) records
  • 5. Prospection • Traditionally focused on known sites • Conventional photography • Landscape scale • Filling gaps • Newer digital techniques
  • 6. Prospection Conventional Aerial Photography • Extensive opportunistic flying • Good years reveal much • Not Systematic • Limited by crop response • Visible spectrum(390- 750nm)
  • 8. Prospection Multispectral and Hyperspectral • No systematic surveys • Research suggests huge potential • Extended visibility beyond visible spectrum • Rapid area surveys • Satellite imagery
  • 10. Prospection Airborne Lidar • 3D record of topography at very high resolution • Systematic survey by Environment Agency • Upstanding and buried sites • Assessment of preservation • Change detection (multi temporal survey)
  • 12. Assessing Preservation Hyperspectral Techniques • Adaptation of vegetation monitoring • Ratios of reflectance in different spectral bands reflect vegetation vigour • NDVI (Normalised difference vegetation) • Tasselled Cap
  • 14. Assessing Preservation Airborne Lidar Intensity • NIR reflectance enhanced detection of vegetation and soil properties • Not a robust indicator • No systematic collection • Much work to be done
  • 17. Problem • Information on heritage assets resides in expert hands • Issues of availability / confidentiality • Discrete, not continuous record • Articulated need for “red flag” mapping • How to achieve this without alienation of some stakeholders
  • 18. Goals • To provide interpreted information to non-expert users • Models rooted in knowledge base • Not to usurp the HER as a source of data or to undermine curatorial prerogative
  • 19. Approach: User-focused • Understand what users need, how they think and work • Model the knowledge- based approach of expert users “topsight” (Gelernter 1992) • Presentation of results structured to fit the real- world and in a user friendly medium
  • 20. Approach: Simplify • Inductive (data driven) rather than deductive (theory driven) • Simplify and summarise (the detail is in the HER) • Validate through user feedback (rather than test and quantify)
  • 21. Approach: Model Objectives The completed models will provide per parcel scores for: • The predicted archaeological potential of all land parcels. • The aggregate bearing potential and value of all land parcels. • The susceptibility of individual land parcels to field evaluation techniques. • The likely physical condition of buried cultural remains. • The risk of encountering buried waterlogged organic remains. • The level of impact that different forms of extraction may have on the archaeological record • The importance of archaeology in the light of regional priorities. • The likely mitigation needs in the light of PPG 16 guidance
  • 22. Method: Predictive Models • Classic predictive modelling • Big, empty, heterogeneous areas (2500km2 / 21 sites) • Assess and weigh environmental factors • Weights inform model
  • 23. • Such models are inappropriate for the TV • c. 40% of land parcels contain a record • Eg. Newark, 1254 parcels out of 5012 Method: Predictive Models
  • 24. Method: Our Data Model • OS MasterMap® as a spatial framework • Raster based GIS models • 50m grid (200k cells)
  • 25. Method: Model Building • Source data is rasterised • Simplified scores are applied or extracted • Models are based on weighted means of scores • Blank areas filled using landscape classification and spatial modelling Terrace: Score = 3
  • 26. Method: Per Parcel Results • Calculations reclassified to 5 level scale from low risk to high • Aggregated model scores devolved to level of an OS MasterMap® TOID • Built up parcels, water and parcels less than 1ha in extent excluded
  • 27. Delivery • Data for stakeholder GIS (tables of values for each TOID)
  • 28. Delivery • Interactive using embedded Google Earth application
  • 29. Critique • “Topsight” is not necessarily the same thing as predictive modelling or risk mapping • Modelling period based activity and intensity of activity is problematic • It would be possible model individual classes of monument with clear geographic preferences (eg burnt mounds) • Perhaps general models are the most helpful • The meaning of results is imprecise and open to misinterpretation
  • 30. Concluding Thoughts Prospection • Non-photographic techniques offer huge potential, but uptake issues (availability, cost, education) • In fact, in times of limited finances reliance on traditional techniques may not be cost-effective Predictive Management • Need for strategic management of heritage assets is axiomatic • System adoption requires clear joined-up thinking at high level • Possible conflict with aggregate resource assessments in England • Do we need another level of information?