Mba 2 Sem Demand For Casting
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Demand forecasting is predicting future demand for a firm's products. It helps with production planning and scheduling, acquiring inputs, financial planning, pricing strategies, and advertising planning. The key steps involve specifying objectives, determining timelines, choosing forecasting methods, collecting and adjusting data, estimating results, and interpreting them. Common techniques include surveys, statistical methods, opinion polls, trend projection methods, barometric methods, and econometric methods. Consumer survey techniques involve complete enumeration, sample surveys, and end-use methods. Expert opinion, Delphi methods, and managerial surveys are also used. Statistical techniques include trend projections, barometric indicators, and econometric regression and simultaneous equation models.
Mba 2 Sem Demand For Casting
- 2. DEMAND FORCASTING Demand forecasting is predicting the future demand for firm’s product. Demand forecasting helps in following areas:- Planning and scheduling production. Acquiring inputs. Making provision for finances. Formulating pricing strategy. Planning advertisement.
- 3. Steps in demand forecasting Specifying the objective. Determining the time perspective. Making choice of method for demand forecasting. Collection of data and data adjustment. Estimation and interpretation of results.
- 4. Techniques of demand forecasting . Survey Statistical Consumer Opinion poll 1.Complete Enumeration Sample Survey End use Method Expert Opinion Delphi Methods Survey of Managerial Plans 4. Market Experiment 1 Trend Projection Method 2 Barometric Method. 3 Econometric Method.
- 5. Techniques of demand forecasting. Consumer survey method- Direct interviews- 1. Consumer Survey Method – Direct Interviews a.Complete enumeration b.Sample survey c.End-use method
- 6. 1.Complete enumeration :- In this, almost all the potential users of the product are contacted and are asked about their future plan of purchasing the product in question 2. The quantity indicated by the consumers are added together to obtain the probable demand for the product. DF= ID 1 +ID 2 +……..+ID n
- 7. 2.Sample survey Under this , only a sample of potential consumers or users is selected for interview. Consumers to be surveyed are selected from the relevant market through a sampling method. Method of survey may be direct interview or mailed questionnaire to the sample- consumers DF = (ID+ ID+…….ID) N C n
- 8. 3.End-use method Ist stage :- Identify and list all possible users of the product in question. IInd stage :-fixing suitable technical ‘norms’ of consumption of the product under study. IIIrd stage :- Application of the norms. Final stage :- Aggregate the product- wise or use-wise content of the item for which the demand is to be forecast.
- 9. Opinion poll methods Expert opinion method Delphi method Surveys of Managerial plans Market studies and experiments
- 10. 1.Expert opinion method In this, sales representative of firms assess the demand for the targeted product in the areas, regions or cities that they represent. The estimates of demand thus obtained form different regions are added up to get the overall probable demand for a product.
- 11. 2.Delphi method Under this method, the experts are provided information on estimates of forecasts of other experts along with the underlying assumptions. The experts may revise their own estimate in the light of forecast made by other experts.
- 12. Surveys of Managerial plans Such Surveys is that plans generally from the basis for future actions. for Ex. Capital Expenditure budgets from large corporations are usually planned well in Advance.
- 13. Market studies and experiments Under this method firms first select some areas of the representative markets having similar features. Then they carry out market experiments by changing prices, expenditure and other controllable variables in demand function.
- 14. Statistical methods Trend projection methods Barometric methods Econometric method.
- 15. Trend projection methods This methods is concerned with the study of movement of variables through time. This requires long and reliable time series data. This is based on an assumption that past trends will be continued to play their part in same manner in future
- 16. Barometric methods This construct an index of relevant economic indicators and to forecast future trends on the basis of movements in the index of economic indicators. Indicators are :- Leading indicators. Coincidental indicators. Lagging indicators
- 17. Contd… Graphical Method Fitting Trend Equation or least squares Method Box Jenkins Method
- 18. . Leading indicators :- it moves up & down ahead of some other series. E.g.., (i) index of net business investment, (ii) change in the value of inventories: (iii) index of prices of the materials . Coincidental indicators :- it moves up and down simultaneously with the level of general economic activities. e.g., (i) no.s of employees in non agriculture sector : (ii) rate of unemployment ;(iii) gross national products at constant prices.
- 19. Lagging indicators :- it consist of those indicators that follows a change after some time-lag. e.g., labour cost per unit of manufactured output, Lending rates for short term loans
- 20. Econometric method. This method combines statistical tools with economic theories to estimate economic variables and to forecast the intended economic variables. Methods:- Regression method Simultaneous equation method
- 21. Thanks