Let's Predict the Future: D1 Agile Thinking
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The document outlines a workshop at the SAOIM 2014 conference focused on predicting the future and the importance of agility and flexibility in adapting to changes. It emphasizes the dangers of making assumptions about the future based on current trends and the need for innovative storytelling methods to forecast trends. The workshop includes discussions and reflections on recent observations and questions related to future predictions.
Let's Predict the Future: D1 Agile Thinking
- 1. D: We've Predicted the Future! So What? Let’s Predict the Future! A half-day workshop at the SAOIM 2014 conference held on Tuesday 3 June 2014 facilitated by Brian Kelly, Cetis Slides available under a Creative Commons licence (CC-BY) 1 D1: Let’s Predict the Future! Agile Thinking
- 2. Need for Agility & Flexibility Dangers that we: • Assume the future is like today, only faster, bigger, smaller, … • Fail to transform existing practices • Fail to recognise implications of political, economic, cultural, … changes 2
- 3. What Did You Notice? What did you notice for the first time today?* Or variants: • What did you notice for the first time this week / recently? 3 * Acknowledgements to Tony Hirst My recent observations: • Buying newspaper using my mobile phone • Being awarded a badge on a computer game • WiFi on buses • Responses to “Who has used a mobile device for work-related purposes - in bed?”
- 4. What Was The Question? You overhear someone saying “Have you tried the library?” What might have been the question? You overhear someone saying “Have you tried Amazon/Google/…?” What might have been the question? 4 Acknowledgements to Tony Hirst
- 5. The Future Backwards What will we see in the future? Dangers of: Providing optimistic or pessimistic views based on personal inclinations No new insights Need for innovative ways of story-telling such as: The History of the Web Backwards Forecasting Trends Backwards Reversible, Reverse History and Side-by- Side Storytelling (Tony Hirst’s blog post) 5