Introduction to Policy-Tool CAADP Policy Lab
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The document introduces the CAADP Policy Lab Tool, which uses a computable political economy equilibrium model (CGPE) to support political decision making. The CGPE model includes modules for legislative bargaining, economic outcomes from policies, voter response, and policy belief formation. It provides an interactive platform for communication between policymakers and the model. Key features include assessing the impact of budget allocations, identifying priority sectors, evaluating policies to meet multiple objectives, and determining politically feasible compromises. Effective use of the tool requires data collection, empirical specification of the CGPE modules, and programming of an interactive country-specific platform.
Introduction to Policy-Tool CAADP Policy Lab
- 1. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Introduction to Policy-Tool CAADP Policy Lab Christian Henning Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kiel, Germany ReSAKSS Side Event 12, Maputo, 25-27 October 2017 Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 1
- 2. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 2
- 3. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Potential Uses of Model Support to political decision-making in political practice Device to conduct interactive workshops as field experiments. What is required from the policy tool? Facilities enabling communication between political practitioners and scientific models Data input from practitioners to model Data output from model to practitioners Interactive data exchange between practitioners and model Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 3
- 4. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Theoretical Approach Computable Political Economy Equilibrium Model (CGPE): Module I: Legislative bargaining model resulting in a policy choice γ. Module II: Economic Module transforming policies (γ) into outcomes (z), T(z, γ). Module III: Voter response model transforming voter welfare V(z) into political support S(V(z)). Module IV: Policy Belief Formation Module: describing how political agents and voters up-date their political beliefs. Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 4
- 5. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Questionnaire Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 5
- 6. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Importance of Good Policy Total Budget Shift: Poverty Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 6
- 7. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Importance of Good Policy Policy Direction: Non-Agriculture - Poverty Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 7
- 8. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Importance of Budget Allocation Importance of Budget Allocation to Agriculture Figure: Agricultural Budget Figure: Smoothed and Estimated Technical Progress for Maize Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 8
- 9. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Identification of Key Sectors Identification of Key Sectors: CGE- & PPG- Elasticities Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 9
- 10. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Meeting Multiple Objectives Importance of Good Policy Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 10
- 11. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Political Feasibility Assessing Political Feasibility Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 11
- 12. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Political Feasible Second-best Policies Finding a Political Compromise: Goal Achievements Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 12
- 13. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Political Feasible Second-best Policies Finding a Political Compromise: Political Feasibility Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 13
- 14. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Making First-best Policies Political Feasible Making Good Policy Politically Feasible: Getting Stakeholders on Board! Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 14
- 15. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool I. Data Collection - Policy network survey - Voter survey - Socio-economic survey - Statistical data: budget expenditure (speed), sectoral production data, trade data II. Empirical specification of Modules - Micro-Macro-linked CGE - Bayesian estimation of PIF - Pol. Bargaining Model - Policy Network estimation - Bayesian estimation of Probabilistic voter model III. Programming of country specific tool - Interactive workshop tool - Interactive internet platform - GAMS model as science tool Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 15
- 16. Uses, Modeling & Methods Tool Input Tool Indicators Steps to apply CAADP Policy Lab Tool Thank you very much for your attention! Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 16
- 17. Descriptive Output Historial TP Cluster Beliefs: Policy Directions Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 17
- 18. Descriptive Output Historial TP Cluster Beliefs: Implementation Efficiency Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 18
- 19. Descriptive Output Historial TP Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 19
- 20. Descriptive Output Historial TP Importance of Budget Allocation to Agriculture Figure: Agricultural Budget Figure: Observed Technical Progress for Maize Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 20
- 21. Descriptive Output Historial TP Importance of Budget Allocation to Agriculture Figure: Agricultural Budget Figure: Observed and Smoothed Technical Progress for Maize Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 21
- 22. Descriptive Output Historial TP Importance of Budget Allocation to Agriculture Figure: Agricultural Budget Figure: Smoothed and Estimated Technical Progress for Maize Henning Introduction to CAADP Policy Lab Tool 22