2016-06-21 CTP Update and Assessment
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The document outlines the escalation of tensions between Libyan factions and the ongoing U.S. military efforts in Yemen against AQAP. It highlights continued allegiance within the al-Qaeda network despite factions pledging to ISIS, and the ongoing struggles of the Yemeni government in securing peace amidst conflict. Additionally, it discusses security challenges in Somalia and the growing violence from al-Shabaab, alongside ongoing terrorist threats in North Africa linked to various extremist groups.
2016-06-21 CTP Update and Assessment
- 1. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT June 21, 2016
- 2. TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS 2 2 3 1. Tensions are escalating between the UN-backed Libyan government and the Tobruk- based House of Representatives, increasing the likelihood of resumed conflict. 2. The Pentagon confirmed the extension of a U.S. special forces counterterrorism mission in Yemen to provide support to Emirati forces against AQAP. 3. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) released a statement asserting that though IMU leadership had pledged to ISIS, a significant faction remained loyal to al Qaeda. 1
- 3. ASSESSMENT: al Qaeda Network Groups that are part of the al Qaeda network continue to re-affirm their association with al Qaeda. The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) rejected the pledge of allegiance (bayat) that former leader Uthman Ghazi made to the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), noting that a significant faction of the IMU had remained loyal to al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri. Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) likewise released a statement that eulogized the late Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour, an indicator of affiliation with al Qaeda, and a statement of condolences for the new emir Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada. The statement also encouraged Muslims and Pakistanis to fight America and the Pakistani military, which is consistent with al Qaeda’s strategic objectives for Pakistan. Former Guantanamo Bay detainee Jihad Ahmed Mustafa Diyab likely escaped from Uruguay to Brazil recently. U.S. law enforcement officers have not yet located Diyab. The U.S. released Diyab to Uruguay in 2014. The Department of Defense Detainee Assessment of Diyab, issued in 2008, outlined that the detainee was accused of having connections specifically to al Qaeda officials. Outlook: It is likely that additional groups whose leadership announced support for ISIS may come forward as having remained part of the al Qaeda network as ISIS suffers from tactical setbacks. 3 AL QAEDA
- 4. ASSESSMENT: Political The Yemeni delegations have not reached a negotiated political settlement during the Kuwait talks, probably because they each hold irreconcilable demands based on current ground conditions. The Hadi government has focused on bolstering local legitimacy in Aden, its de facto capital. The government expanded public services in Aden and prepared to export oil from Shabwah after a year-long hiatus. Additionally, Yemeni Prime Minister Ahmed bin Daghir met with political representatives, including secessionist political leaders, to ask for their support. Outlook: The peace talks in Kuwait will not collapse, but the delegations will also not reach a negotiated settlement until ground conditions change the demands they hold. Security The Pentagon confirmed the extension of a U.S. Special Forces mission to advise and assist Emirati counter-terrorism operations in al Mukalla, which Emirati-backed Yemeni troops recently seized from AQAP. The coalition troops are primarily engaged in rebuilding Yemeni security forces and stabilization operations now. Fighting continues along the front line in Yemen. Pro-Hadi forces advanced toward the capital, Sana’a. Al Houthi-Saleh fighters clashed with Yemeni popular resistance and Yemeni army forces along the southern front, gaining ground near the al Anad air base outside of Aden in Lahij governorate. Taiz, Yemen’s third-largest city, remains actively contested. Outlook: Coalition-backed forces will launch an offensive to recapture terrain near al Anad base from al Houthi-Saleh forces. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in Yemen ISIS continued its explosive campaign in al Mukalla. Yemeni security forces foiled a terrorist attack in al Mukalla, Hadramawt governorate, likely committed by an ISIS militant with former AQAP affiliations. AQAP resumed a previous campaign of assassinations, targeting individuals that have spoken out against it, in its Abyan stronghold. Outlook: ISIS will attempt to conduct a large-scale attack in Aden or al Mukalla by the end of Ramadan. 4 YEMENGULF OF ADEN
- 5. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: 5 YEMENGULF OF ADEN 1 2 3 4 5 1) 14 JUN: Al Houthi- Saleh fighters clashed with government forces in Maris, Dhaleh. 2) 15 JUN: Police foiled suspected AQAP attack in al Mukalla, Hadramawt. 3) 15 JUN: Suspected AQAP militant assassinated an imam in Jaar, Abyan. 4) 17 JUN: Al Houthi- Saleh and pro-Hadi forces clashed in Haradh, Hajjah. 5) 20 JUN: Al Houthi- Saleh fighters took control of Jales Mountain, Lahij, near al Anad air base.
- 6. ASSESSMENT: Political The Somali Federal Parliament amended Article 60 of the provisional constitution to extend their term length from the stated four years to the next occurrence of elections. The lawmakers enacted the change to stay in power beyond their term’s original August 2016 expiration. The amendment takes away much of the lawmakers’ incentive to ensure that the expected August 2016 elections take place. Outlook: The political and legal maneuvering of the Somali parliament decreases the likelihood that Somali federal elections will be held in August 2016. Security Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces are struggling to secure southern Somalia from al Shabaab attacks. AMISOM forces killed two civilians in the ensuing chaos of an improvised explosive device (IED) attack in Afgoi, Lower Shabelle region on June 14. In a separate incident on June 14, al Shabaab militants launched mortars at the AMISOM base in Marka, Lower Shabelle. The AMISOM artillery response inadvertently killed two additional civilians. Outlook: Counterattacks by AMISOM and SNA forces that kill civilians will alienate the multinational effort from the Somali populace and will support the al Shabaab counter-narrative that the federal government is unfit to lead. Al Shabaab Al Shabaab maintains the capability to conduct precision attacks in both rural and urban areas throughout Somalia and Kenya. Suspected al Shabaab gunmen assassinated a senior intelligence officer in Mogadishu on June 15, and killed five Kenyan police officers in an ambush in Mandera County, Kenya on June 20. The militant group also launched a series of violent ambushes and mortar attacks throughout the Lower Shabelle region throughout the week. Outlook: Al Shabaab will disrupt SNA and AMISOM operations in Lower Shabelle region and may even seek to regain control of territory. 6 HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
- 7. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: 7 HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN 1) 14 JUN: AMISOM troops inadvertently killed two civilians after IED attack in Afgoi, Lower Shabelle. 2) 18 JUN: Al Shabaab ambushed AMISOM convoy near Barawe, Lower Shabelle. 3) 19 JUN: Al Shabaab launched mortars into Marka, Lower Shabelle. 4) 20 JUN: Al Shabaab launched complex attack on Kenyan Police in Mandera County, Kenya. 3 2 4 1
- 8. ASSESSMENT: Political The Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) may be working with the Libyan National Army (LNA) to provoke clashes between the LNA and allies of the Government of National Accord (GNA). The HoR declared a state of emergency and created a military zone from Tobruk to Ben Jawad, a town currently occupied by the GNA-aligned Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG). The LNA launched an airstrike against a PFG base in southern Ajdabiya and Benghazi after Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB) attacks on the LNA in the region. The close relationship between the LNA and HoR indicates that the airstrikes and martial law declaration occurred concurrently to incite the GNA and PFG to violence. Outlook: The GNA and HoR may clash in central Libya between Ben Jawad and Ajdabiya as the LNA implements martial law in the region. Security Ansar al Sharia (AAS) affiliates consolidated to establish a new stronghold in Ajdabiya, south of Benghazi. Two of the AAS- linked groups in Benghazi merged into the Benghazi Defense Brigade (BDB), which then launched an offensive on Ajdabiya. Recent LNA efforts against AAS affiliates in Benghazi have led the BDB to move its focus to Ajdabiya. The BDB will ally with other Islamists to overpower LNA Ajdabiya forces. Outlook: The BDB will carry out multiple attacks on LNA forces in Ajdabiya to gain control of the town. The LNA will struggle to hold its multiple fronts in Derna, Benghazi, and now Ajdabiya. Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Libya ISIS in Libya plans to attack in Europe and expand its influence in Africa, according to CIA director John Brennan. As ISIS continues to withdraw resources and personnel from Sirte, the group will likely reorganize in the southern desert of Libya and may launch attacks abroad to emphasize their continued relevance. Outlook: ISIS will continue to hold territory in Sirte to facilitate its withdrawal from Sirte and distribute resources to other fronts. This redistribution may include allocation of resources and personnel to plan an attack abroad, especially in Europe. 8 LIBYAWEST AFRICA
- 9. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: 9 LIBYAWEST AFRICA 1 4 2 5 3 1) 14 - 20 JUN: Misratan and ISIS fighters fought for control of Sirte. 2) 16 JUN: The LNA launched airstrikes against ISIS boats in Benghazi. 3) 20 JUN: The LNA targeted a PFG camp with air strikes near Ajdabiya. 4) 18 JUN: Islamist militias began offensive against LNA in Ajdabiya. 5) 16 JUN: An ISIS SVBIED killed at least ten Misratan soldiers behind Misratan lines in Abu Grein.
- 10. ASSESSMENT: Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) AQIM is competing to be the vanguard of the Salafi-jihadi movement with ISIS in Algeria. Algerian security forces killed at 18 suspected terrorists, arrested four others, and seized weapons caches in Medea, northern Algeria. AQIM and ISIS militants both operate in Medea, and increased movement indicates a possible uptick in activity by the groups. Outlook: AQIM will attempt to retain members loyal to al Qaeda while protecting its hideouts from Algerian security forces conducting clearing operations in northern Algeria. Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia) The Tunisian government is working to combat terrorism by addressing the country’s economic stagnation. Tunisian Prime Minister Habib Essid voluntarily resigned due to his acknowledged inability to enact crucial economic reform. ISIS has intentionally targeted the Tunisian tourism industry in order to damage the country’s economy and create instability. Tunisia’s struggling economy and perceived governmental neglect serves as a major recruitment tool for extremist groups, such as ISIS. Outlook: The decline of the Tunisian economy will continue to fuel ISIS recruitment, despite recent efforts by the government to address economic stagnation. Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) AQIM-linked Ansar al Din and al Murabitoun are increasing calls for attacks against MINUSMA and French forces. Al Murabitoun circulated a photo praising a suicide attack on French forces in Ramadan 2014 and called for attacks against Western forces during the remainder of Ramadan, which ends on July 5. Ansar al Din also claimed six attacks against French and MINUSMA forces. These attacks occurred during this Ramadan month in Mali’s Kidal region and occurred at a more frequent pace than the previous month. Outlook: AQIM affiliates will likely attempt a complex attack on MINUSMA or French forces in northern Mali during the remaining two weeks of the Ramadan season. An attack on a soft target in the Sahel, like a hotel, is also possible. 10 MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA
- 11. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: 11 MAGHREBWEST AFRICA 2 3 1 4 1) 14 JUN: Algerian security forces destroyed a terrorist bunker and seized weapons in Medea. 2) 15 JUN: Tunisian security forces arrested six suspected terrorists in Kasserine. 3) 16 JUN: Algerian security forces destroyed a terrorist shelter and seized weapons in Skikda and Jijel. 4) 19 JUN: Algerian security forces killed 18 suspected terrorists in Rouakeche.
- 12. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: 12 SAHELWEST AFRICA 3 2 1 4 1) 16 JUN: Ansar al Din detonated an IED targeting two French vehicles in Kidal. 2) 18 JUN: French Operation Barkhane forces arrested four suspected militants in Taglit, Kidal. 3) 19 JUN: Ansar al Din attacked a Malian National Guard post in Gossi, Timbuktu. 4) 20 JUN: Militants, likely Islamist, killed HCUA military chief Alhassane Ag Intouwa in Ber, Timbuktu.
- 13. ACRONYMS 13 African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA) Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA) Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) Libyan National Army (LNA) Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD) National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA) The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) Pakistani Military (PakMil) Possible military dimensions (PMD) Somalia National Army (SNA) Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
- 14. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT Katherine Zimmerman research manager katherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576 Paul Bucala Iran analyst paul.bucala@aei.org (202) 888-6573 Marie Donovan Iran analyst marie.donovan@aei.org (202) 888-6572 Heather Malacaria program manager heather.malacaria@aei.org (202) 888-6575 Emily Estelle al Qaeda analyst emily.estelle@aei.org (202) 888-6570 Caitlin Pendleton Iran analyst caitlin.pendleton@aei.org (202) 888-6577 For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org. Frederick W. Kagan director fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569 14