2018 07-17 CTP Update and Assesment
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The July 17, 2018 threat update highlights a surge in violence from various extremist groups in Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria, and Pakistan, with AQAP and ISIS clashing in Yemen and Al Shabaab increasing attacks to undermine the Somali government. In Nigeria, salafi-jihadi groups are intensifying their assaults on security forces amid ongoing political turmoil, while the upcoming Pakistani elections could destabilize the country further and affect US-Taliban peace talks. Additionally, militant activity in Libya threatens critical resources, raising concerns of a humanitarian crisis and undermining state stability.
2018 07-17 CTP Update and Assesment
- 1. 1 Threat Update: July 17, 2018 Yemen Internecine fighting may weaken AQAP and ISIS in southern Yemen, but a renewed secession crisis will likely prevent security forces from capitalizing on the opportunity. AQAP militants clashed with ISIS militants in central Yemen, a shift from past tactical-level cooperation against al Houthi forces. The Transitional Political Council of the South held its first National Assembly where it announced plans for southern secession. Iran U.S. attempts to secure a Russian-brokered agreement for the removal of Iranian and Iranian-backed forces from Syria will fail to moderate Iran’s regional activities. The Supreme Leader’s senior foreign policy advisor vowed to maintain Iran’s “advisory presence” in Syria and dismissed the possibility of negotiating with the U.S. The advisor met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 13. Al Shabaab is conducting a wave of suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attacks to degrade security and weaken the Somali Federal Government in Mogadishu. Al Shabaab conducted a similar wave of attacks in February-March 2018. Al Shabaab conducted twin SVBIED attacks targeting Villa Somalia in Mogadishu on July 14, a week after the group detonated two SVBIEDs at the ministries of the interior and security. Somalia
- 2. 2 Salafi-jihadi groups increased the scale of attacks on security targets in northeastern Nigeria in order to attrite overstretched security forces and expand support zones. ISWA is exploiting its freedom of movement in Borno State to counteract Nigerian and Nigerien pressure on its Lake Chad Basin stronghold. Boko Haram-Shekau commanders may be shifting toward striking hard targets in order to facilitate reconciliation or a merger with ISWA in the event of Shekau’s death. Threat Update: July 17, 2018 Nigeria South Asia The outcome of Pakistan’s general election may destabilize the country and hinder U.S. peace talks with the Afghan Taliban. The Pakistani military is backing a party that is less likely to end support for militant groups in Afghanistan and India. Salafi-jihadi groups are targeting politicians and election officials, fueling popular discontent. The ruling party may organize protests that will cause the military to focus internally rather than on countering militant groups. Attacks on infrastructure in Libya’s interior threaten the coastal population’s access to resources and could lead to a humanitarian crisis and increased migration if not contained. Militant attacks throughout southern Libya have disrupted oil production and water infrastructure in recent weeks. ISIS may be responsible for some of the attacks, reflecting efforts to worsen tensions and prevent the formation of a functional Libyan state. Libya
- 3. Yemen 3 Present 12 JUL: AQAP and ISIS militants clashed in central Yemen, killing 25 ISIS militants. 08 JUN-10 JUN: The Political Transitional Council of the South (STC) announced its plans to secede and form an independent southern state in its inaugural National Assembly meeting. 15 JUL: An STC-aligned al Hizam general vowed to expel the Hadi government from southern Yemen within a few days. Al Hizam forces are one of the primary counterterrorism forces in southern Yemen. Anmar Jerjees STC secession plan could decrease pressure on Salafi-jihadi groups as ISIS and AQAP clash 1 2 3 15 JUL: AQAP claimed that ISIS killed captured AQAP fighters and displayed “moral failure.” 4
- 4. Horn of Africa 4Isabelle Astier-Ibrahim Al Shabaab conducts attack wave to weaken the Somali Federal Government 23 FEB: Al Shabaab conducted two SVBIED attacks targeting Villa Somalia and the Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency headquarters in Mogadishu, killing over 45 people and wounding a dozen others. 1 07 JUL: Al Shabaab conducted simultaneous attacks on the interior and security ministries, killing 34 people. 2 Present 1 2 3 Key Multiple attacks One attack 14 JUL: Al Shabaab conducted twin SVBIED attacks on security checkpoints and a hotel near Villa Somalia, killing 25 guards. 3Al Shabaab SVBIED attacks in Mogadishu 2018
- 5. 5Jake Barnett Salafi-jihadi groups increase the scale of attacks against security forces in Nigeria Nigeria Key Present ISWA Boko Haram- Shekau 29 JUN: AFP reported that Abubakar Shekau is ill and that his commanders are debating succession. 11 JUL: ISWA released its first video in 17 months highlighting military successes and economic activity in ISWA-controlled territory. 2 13 JUL: 100+ Boko Haram-Shekau fighters ambushed a Nigerian Army convoy and stole vehicles in Borno State. Boko Haram-Shekau does not frequently target security forces. 3 14 JUL: Hundreds of ISWA militants driving military vehicles overran a Nigerian base in Yobe State. 41
- 6. 6Mackenzie Robinson Instability increases before Pakistan’s general election South Asia Present 06 JUL: The National Accountability Bureau sentenced former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to 10 years in prison on corruption charges. 13 JUL: An ISIS suicide attacker targeted a Balochistan Awami Party rally, killing over 130 people. 10 JUL: The TTP attacked an Awami National Party election rally, killing the leader and 20 others. 1 2 3 15 JUL: Pakistani officials continued to suppress PML-N support by arresting hundreds and opening 17,000 criminal investigations. 4
- 7. Libya 7 Attacks on key resources could lead to humanitarian crisis in Libya Caitlin McMahon Al Hassouna plant Al Sharara oil field Tazirbu site 06 JUL: 1. Militants kidnapped several workers at the al Hassouna plant but later released them. ISIS and pro-Qaddafi militants attacked this plant multiple times between 2016 and 2017. 08 JUL: 2. Suspected Salafi-jihadi militants killed two workers after kidnapping three employees of the Great Man-Made River in Tazirbu. 14 JUL: 3. Attackers kidnapped one Romanian and three Libyan engineers at al Sharara, the country’s largest oil field, later releasing two of the Libyans. 4. The National Oil Company closed al Sharara in response and will lose 160,000 barrels per day because of the shutdown. Key Attack City affected Great Man-Made River flow Oil production flow 1 2 3, 4 Benghazi Ajdabiya Sirte TripoliZawiya port 17 JUL: 5. The National Oil Corporation declared force majeure on exports from Zawiya port. 5
- 8. Acronym List AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group ISGS: ISIS in the Greater Sahara ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham ISWA: ISIS West Africa Province JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord LNA: Libyan National Army MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa SNA: Somalia National Army TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan 8
- 9. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org. Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575. Frederick W. Kagan Director Critical Threats Project Team Katherine Zimmerman Research Manager Caroline Goodson Program Manager 9 al Qaeda Analysts Emily Estelle Maher Farrukh Jake Barnett Iran Analysts Mike Saidi Nicholas Carl Digital Content Associate Katie Donnelly