2018 03-06 CTP Update and Assessment
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An update on various global threats highlights Iran's pressure on Europeans to counter U.S. sanctions regarding the nuclear deal, the escalation of attacks by al Qaeda affiliates in the Sahel, and the instability faced by the African Union mission in Somalia due to resource shortages. Additionally, Pakistan's ruling party may reform the constitution to strengthen its political power, while Nigerian military operations are causing displacement that could benefit militant recruitment. Meanwhile, ISIS has reestablished a presence in Yemen, claiming several attacks after a period of inactivity.
2018 03-06 CTP Update and Assessment
- 1. 1 Threat Update: March 6, 2018 Iran The Iranians are pressing the Europeans to oppose U.S. efforts to address the nuclear deal’s weaknesses. The Trump Administration may decide to reimpose sanctions lifted under the nuclear deal and impose additional sanctions as well. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian traveled to Tehran to discuss the deal and Iran’s regional behavior with President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on March 5. Iran hopes the Europeans will mitigate the impact of new and/or renewed U.S. sanctions on Iranian and European actors through such measures as blocking regulations. Al Qaeda’s affiliate in the Sahel increased its ability to project force outside of Mali. JNIM militants conducted two simultaneous attacks on the Burkinabe military headquarters and French embassy in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. JNIM was retaliating for a recent French airstrike that killed senior JNIM leader and al Murabitoun military commander Hassan al Ansari. JNIM will use increased operational capabilities to conduct attacks intended to deter French and G5 Sahel coalition forces from engaging in Mali. Burkina Faso
- 2. 2 Threat Update: March 6, 2018 The African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) faces resource shortages and a political crisis that may prevent it from sustaining offensive operations against al Shabaab. Mass unrest is destabilizing Ethiopia, a key AMISOM troop contributor, following the ratification of a controversial state of emergency. Al Shabaab is pressuring AMISOM and Somali forces on multiple fronts, risking the reversal of AMISOM’s recent territorial gains against the group. Horn of Africa Pakistan The Pakistani ruling party will likely reform the constitution to curb the power of the judiciary and reinstate former Prime Minister and party leader Nawaz Sharif to power. The ruling party is trying to form a majority coalition in the Pakistani senate after winning a plurality in March 3 elections. The Supreme Court disqualified Sharif from holding office and subsequently banned him from leading his party.
- 3. 3 Threat Update: March 6, 2018 Nigeria Nigerian-Cameroonian counterterrorism operations are causing mass internal displacement that militant groups could exploit for recruitment. The operations drove hundreds of people from their villages and into IDP camps in northeastern Nigeria. Suspected Boko Haram militants attacked aid workers at an IDP camp, forcing international aid organizations to temporarily suspend their activities. Boko Haram uses anti-government grievances and the provision of services to gain popular support. ISIS reconstituted or reactivated dormant cells in Yemen. ISIS militants claimed attacks in Aden governorate, southern Yemen, and Ibb governorate, central Yemen after significant periods of inactivity in these areas. ISIS in Yemen may be projecting a larger presence than it actually has. Yemen
- 4. Sahel 4Bryan Gilday JNIM retaliates against French and G5 Sahel coalition targets in Burkina Faso 14 FEB: French airstrikes killed at least five senior JNIM leaders, including Hassan al Ansari, in northern Mali near Tinzouatine, Algeria. 21 FEB: A JNIM IED killed two French soldiers in an armored vehicle near Indelamine, Gao region, Mali. 03 MAR: JNIM claimed the Ouagadougou attacks as revenge for the French strikes that killed JNIM leaders on 14 FEB. 02 MAR: JNIM militants conducted simultaneous attacks on the Burkinabe military headquarters and the French embassy in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
- 5. Horn of Africa 5Peter Cialone Ethiopian state of emergency escalates political crisis 16 FEB: The Ethiopian Council of Ministers declared a six-month state of emergency one day after the resignation of Ethiopia’s prime minister, authorizing widespread crackdowns on anti- government activists. 02 ΜΑR: The Ethiopian parliament ratified the state of emergency. The opposition accused the ruling party of rigging the vote after the parliamentary speaker contradicted reported vote counts. 05 MAR: Ethiopian security forces killed and wounded dozens of protesters after activists demonstrated against the state of emergency vote in the Oromia region. 27 FEB: The Ethiopian Ministry of Defense’s Command Post instructed security forces to “take all necessary measures” against protests in the Oromia region. 1 2 4 3
- 6. Horn of Africa 6Peter Cialone Al Shabaab pressures AMISOM and SNA forces 1 3 4 5 1. 23 FEB: Al Shabaab attacked the Presidential Palace and National Intelligence headquarters in Mogadishu. 2. 27 FEB: Al Shabaab attacked SNA and AMISOM forces in Fafadun, Gedo region. 3. 01 MAR: Al Shabaab detonated a SVBIED at a checkpoint in Kahda District, Mogadishu. 4. 02 MAR: Al Shabaab militants ambushed a Burundian AMISOM convoy outside of Bal’ad, Middle Shabelle region. Militants briefly seized the town. 5. 02 MAR: Al Shabaab conducted a complex attack on a SNA base in Afgoi, Lower Shabelle region 6 2 7 Lafey Fafadun Awdiinle Bal’ad Afgoi Mogadishu 6. 02 MAR: Al Shabaab militants attacked two Kenyan police stations in Lafey, Mandera County. 7. 04 MAR: Al Shabaab conducted an IED attack targeting Ethiopian AMISOM troops in Awdiinle, Baidoa city, Bay region. Kenya Somalia
- 7. Pakistan 7Matthew Cassidy Pakistani parties seek path to senate majority Undecided parties Political Party: PML-N coalition PPP coalition Affiliated: The ruling party (PML-N) holds 33 senate seats. Its coalition partners hold 10 additional seats. The PML-N and PPP parties are attempting to win over independent parties and 15 independent candidates. The former majority coalition led by the PPP is attempting to broaden its coalition to retain control of the senate.
- 8. Yemen 8Tomás Padgett Perez ISIS claims increased attacks in central and southern Yemen 1. 18 FEB: ISIS Wilayat Liwa al Akhdar (Green Brigade) detonated an IED targeting al Houthi movement forces in al Sha’ir district, Ibb governorate. 2. 22 FEB: ISIS Wilayat al Bayda detonated an IED targeting al Houthi forces in al Zahra area, al Bayda governorate. 3. 24 FEB: ISIS militants conducted a complex suicide attack targeting a counterterrorism headquarters in al Tawahi district, Aden city. 4. 02 MAR: ISIS Wilayat Liwa al Akhdar conducted an IED attack targeting al Houthi troops in al Sha’ir district, Ibb governorate. 5. 04 MAR: ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan assassinated two Hadi government soldiers in al Mansoura district, Aden. 1 2 3 5 4 Al Zahra Al Sha’ir Aden
- 9. Nigeria 9Wiam Aimade Nigerian-Cameroonian Operation Deep Punch II displaces civilians in Borno State 1. 26 FEB: Joint forces killed 35 Boko Haram militants and cleared hundreds of civilians from several villages between the Sambisa Forest and Mayen. 2. 27 FEB: Joint forces killed five Boko Haram militants in Attagara. 3. 27 FEB: Likely Boko Haram militants conducted a VBIED attack targeting Operation Deep Punch II officers in Tchikide. 4. 01 MAR: Likely Boko Haram militants attacked aid workers in an IDP camp in Rann. The UN and Doctors Without Borders temporarily suspended operations after the attack. 1 2 Nigerian-Cameroonian operations Boko Haram attacks 3 4 Borno State Nigeria Cameroon Chad Attagara
- 10. Acronym List AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord LNA: Libyan National Army MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa SNA: Somalia National Army TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan 10
- 11. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org. Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575. Frederick W. Kagan Director Critical Threats Project Team Katherine Zimmerman Research Manager Caroline Goodson Program Manager 11 al Qaeda Analysts Emily Estelle Maher Farrukh Iran Analysts Marie Donovan Mike Saidi Digital Content Associate Katie Donnelly