2018 03-27 CTP Update and Assessment
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The threat update from March 27, 2018, highlights various security challenges in the Middle East and North Africa, including Iran's preparation for internal unrest and increased law enforcement budgets, escalating al Houthi ballistic missile attacks against Saudi Arabia, and rising al Shabaab activity in Somalia amid a political crisis. Additionally, Egypt is attempting to influence the Libyan reconciliation process while protests in Morocco and Tunisia reflect ongoing economic grievances. Overall, geopolitical tensions and domestic instability in these regions are contributing to a volatile security landscape.
2018 03-27 CTP Update and Assessment
- 1. 1 Threat Update: March 27, 2018 Iranian police forces are preparing for future internal security challenges and the potential revival of anti-regime protests. Iran’s parliament increased the Law Enforcement Forces budget to purchase weapons and equipment by about 400 percent from last year. This increase follows months of deadly protests across Iran that exposed grave security flaws in front-line defenses, particularly in smaller cities. The al Houthi movement displayed its ballistic missile range in a barrage of missiles targeting Saudi sites to mark the three-year anniversary of the Saudi-led coalition’s intervention in Yemen. The al Houthis framed the attack as a justified response to Saudi military actions in Yemen, demanding an end to the air campaign and blockade in order for the al Houthis to participate in negotiations. Continued al Houthi ballistic missile launches against Saudi Arabia could undercut attempts to resume UN- mediated peace talks. Yemen Iran
- 2. 2 Threat Update: March 27, 2018 China seeks to counter Indian nuclear capabilities in South Asia by assisting Pakistan with developing its nuclear program. China provided Pakistan with an advanced missile tracking system for Pakistan’s missile arsenal. India successfully tested a supersonic cruise missile near the Pakistani border on March 22. Chinese nuclear assistance to Pakistan may escalate a regional arms race with India. Al Shabaab is escalating attacks in Mogadishu to exploit the security vacuum created by a political crisis in the Somali parliament. Security forces deployed to the parliament building after a political standoff between the Speaker and Prime Minister. Al Shabaab militants later conducted multiple IED attacks in the capital, including an SVBIED attack targeting the parliament building. Al Shabaab will likely conduct more attacks in Mogadishu if the political crisis persists, which may stall offensives against al Shabaab strongholds near the capital. Somalia Pakistan
- 3. 3 Threat Update: March 27, 2018 Libya Egypt seeks to become a key influencer in the Libyan reconciliation process to secure the Egyptian-Libyan border and counter Algerian influence. Egypt is mediating Libyan army unification talks between opposing military factions in Cairo. Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar’s rising power as a potential commander-in-chief of a unified army will allow Egypt to secure its sphere of influence in Libya. A political deal outside of the UN process may encourage international actors, like Algeria, to counter growing Egyptian authority. Social and economic grievances are driving inhabitants of peripheral regions of Morocco and Tunisia to the streets seven years after the 2011 Arab Spring. The people from mining regions such as Gafsa in Tunisia and Jerada in Morocco are protesting to demand more economic opportunities. The Moroccan and Tunisian governments have cracked down on protests in response. Protests have nevertheless continued and may pressure both regimes to engage in structural and political change. Maghreb
- 4. Yemen 4Tomás Padgett Perez Al Houthi forces launch missiles in reprisal for the coalition’s bombing campaign 23 MAR: The al Houthi movement launched a Badr 1 ballistic missile targeting Saudi ARAMCO facilities in Najran province, southern Saudi Arabia. 22 MAR: The al Houthi movement claimed to have developed a new short- range ballistic missile dubbed the Badr 1. 25 MAR: The al Houthi movement launched seven ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh, Jizan City, Najran City, and Khamis Mushayt city. Saudi Arabia claimed to have intercepted all seven missiles, though video footage raises doubts. 1 2 3 present Al Houthi ballistic missile targets, March 25. Target city Najran City Khamis Mushayt Jizan City
- 5. Pakistan 5Matthew Cassidy China seeks to counter Indian nuclear progress 22 OCT 2016: India began to negotiate a deal with Russia to acquire the S-400 missile defense system. 1 23 NOV 2017: India tested the joint Indian-Russian made BrahMos supersonic cruise missile. India claimed the missile is the fastest in the world. 22 MAR 2018: China acknowledged it sold a missile tracker to Pakistan. China has not recognized most missile sales to Pakistan in the past. 2 3
- 6. Horn of Africa 6Peter Cialone Al Shabaab escalates attacks in Mogadishu after parliamentary crisis 1. 16 MAR: Somali security forces deployed to the parliament building after a motion of no confidence against the Lower House Speaker sparked a standoff with the Prime Minister. 2. 22 MAR: Al Shabaab killed 17 people with a vehicle- borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) outside Wehliye Hotel on Makka al Mukarama road, Mogadishu. 3. 25 MAR: Al Shabaab killed one Somali soldier with an SVBIED targeting a security checkpoint in Sinka Dheer, Kahda district. 4. 25 MAR: Al Shabaab detonated an SVBIED at Sayidka junction near the parliament building. The blast killed at least six people. 5. 26 MAR: Al Shabaab detonated two roadside IEDs targeting security forces in Odweyne and 21 October road, Daynile district. 3 5 4 2 1 Sinka Dheer Parliament building Wehliye Hotel Sayidka junction Odweyne Mogadishu
- 7. Maghreb 7 Economic protests spread in Morocco and Tunisia present Wiam Aimade 1 3 21 MAR: Tunisian police disrupted an economic protest after demonstrators burned a police station and blockaded roads in Mdhila town, central Tunisia. 23 MAR: A Tunisian teachers’ union announced plans to strike in response to the Ministry of Education’s plan to cut salaries. 23 MAR: The Tunisian prime minister announced he will not change plans to reduce the public debt by cutting wages and social welfare. 25 MAR: Douar El Garaa slum residents protested their forced relocation from Morocco’s capital, Rabat. 1 2 3 4 4 2
- 8. Libya 8 Cairo-based unification talks create discord within Libyan factions Theresa Fellner 18 MAR: Delegations from the LNA and GNA arrived in Cairo to begin talks on the unification of the Libyan military. Egypt mediated the meetings. 19 MAR: Participants agreed to separate the military institution from the political process if the delegations named LNA commander Khalifa Haftar commander-in-chief of the unified army under a new presidential council. 20 MAR: Spokesperson for the Presidency Council’s Ministry of Defense Mohamed Ghasri said that the Cairo talks would not succeed. GNA Prime Minister Fayez al Serraj dismissed Ghasri in response. 23 MAR: Libyan Grand Mufti Sheikh al Sadiq al Gharyani stated that Egypt should not interfere with Libya’s domestic affairs and military officers should oppose Egypt’s influence. 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
- 9. Acronym List AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord LNA: Libyan National Army MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa SNA: Somalia National Army TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan 9
- 10. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org. Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575. Frederick W. Kagan Director Critical Threats Project Team Katherine Zimmerman Research Manager Caroline Goodson Program Manager 10 al Qaeda Analysts Emily Estelle Maher Farrukh Iran Analysts Marie Donovan Mike Saidi Digital Content Associate Katie Donnelly