2018 02-13 CTP Update and Assessment
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The document details a series of threat updates from February 13, 2018, highlighting geopolitical situations involving Iran, ISIS in Libya, the political crisis in Kenya, and the Houthi movement in Yemen. It notes Iran's military support in Syria, escalating ISIS attacks in Libya, efforts to ease political tensions in Kenya, and the Houthi's use of Iranian technology against Saudi defenses. Furthermore, it discusses the impact of TTP leadership changes in Pakistan following the death of deputy leader Khalid Mehsud.
2018 02-13 CTP Update and Assessment
- 1. 1 Threat Update: February 13, 2018 Iran The Artesh Air Force’s deployment of a C-130 transport aircraft near Fua in Syria’s Idlib Governorate may have been part of a brokered deal between Turkey, Iran, and Russia to de-escalate the situation in Idlib Governorate and evacuate the towns of Fua and Kefraya. The deployment highlights Iran’s push to re-posture components of the conventional military’s force structure towards supporting the IRGC’s expeditionary operations. Libya Increasing explosive attacks in Libya signal both the strengthening of ISIS and the deterioration of security in Libya’s second-largest city. ISIS is using vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attacks to fix security forces in defensive positions and regain freedom of movement near its former stronghold in Sirte. Militants likely affiliated with al Qaeda also resumed VBIED attacks targeting security forces in Benghazi, challenging would-be strongman Khalifa Haftar’s control over the city.
- 2. 2 Threat Update: February 13, 2018 The Kenyatta administration is attempting to de-escalate the political crisis in Kenya. Opposition leadership is refusing to recognize Kenyatta’s legitimacy, however, preserving the possibility for renewed unrest that could destabilize a linchpin of East Africa’s stability. Kenya The al Houthi movement is using Iranian provided weaponry to counter Saudi-led coalition missile defense systems. Al Houthi forces destroyed the radar system of a Patriot air defense system with a likely Iranian kamikaze drone before striking the area with a ballistic missile in western Yemen. Al Houthi forces may be able to use ballistic missiles to a greater effect to repel coalition-backed offensives and threaten Saudi Arabia if they are able to continue to replicate this tactic. Yemen The death of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) Deputy Leader Khalid Sajna Mehsud will not disrupt TTP’s ability to conduct operations in the long term. The emir of the TTP may leverage Mehsud’s death to consolidate control over formerly dissident TTP factions. The new deputy leader may splinter the TTP if he incites backlash from more independent TTP factions, however. Pakistan
- 3. Libya 3Emily Estelle VBIED attacks signal growing strength of ISIS and renewed insurgency in Benghazi 23 JAN: Militants detonated two VBIEDs targeting LNA officials at a mosque. 31 AUG: ISIS militants detonated a SVBIED targeting the LNA. 11 JAN: An ISIS suicide bomber surrendered at a checkpoint. 09 FEB: Militants detonated two VBIEDs outside of a mosque. 10 FEB: ISIS militants detonated a SVBIED at a LNA checkpoint.
- 4. Pakistan 4Matthew Cassidy TTP emir consolidates power over sub- factions 07 NOV 2013: The interim TTP head pushed the Shura to select a non-Mehsud member as the new TTP leader. 1 02 FEB 2017: The TTP emir promoted Khalid Mehsud to deputy leader in exchange for rejoining the TTP. 12 FEB 2018: TTP emir promoted Mehsud faction leader and Mufti Noor Wali to deputy leader of the TTP after Mehsud’s death. 2 3
- 5. Yemen 5Maher Farrukh Al Houthi forces use Iranian technology to counter coalition missile defense systems 09 FEB 2018: Al Houthi forces destroyed the radar of a coalition missile defense system with a kamikaze drone. 27 NOV 2016: Hadi government forces intercepted a truck smuggling six kamikaze drones that match Iranian designs en route to al Houthi forces.
- 6. Horn of Africa 6Peter Cialone Kenyan government de-escalates political crisis 07 FEB: Kenyan authorities deported opposition lawyer Miguna Miguna after charging him with treason. 08 FEB: The Kenyan government reinstated television broadcasts. 11 FEB: Raila Odinga rejected Western diplomats’ call for him to recognize Kenyatta’s legitimacy. 2 3 4 30 JAN: Opposition leader Raila Odinga participated in a protest inauguration. Kenyatta’s government blocked television broadcasts of the event. 1 Neutral event Event favoring opposition Event favoring Kenyatta Legend
- 7. Acronym List AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord LNA: Libyan National Army MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa SNA: Somalia National Army TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan 7
- 8. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org. Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575. Frederick W. Kagan Director Critical Threats Project Team Katherine Zimmerman Research Manager Caroline Goodson Program Manager 8 al Qaeda Analysts Emily Estelle Maher Farrukh Iran Analysts Marie Donovan Mike Saidi Digital Content Associate Katie Donnelly