3+foresight+methods
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This document describes foresight methods used to help organizations understand opportunities and create innovations for the future. It outlines a three-phase foresight process - Perspective, Opportunity, and Solution - and nine core tools used within each phase, including context mapping, progression curves, demographics analysis, and futuretelling. The goal is to help answer questions about finding future opportunities, creating a path to leverage changes, and taking action today to achieve long-term plans.
3+foresight+methods
- 1. FORESIGHT METHODS Long-range foresight is about understanding the situation today, seeking future opportunities, and intelligently creating innovations. Our Foresight methods are designed to help you turn your visions and long-range plans into immediate action. Based on our experience in industry and at different universities, we have developed a set of Foresight methods as a systematic practice. Using these methods of foresight and innovation strategy, you will be able to prepare successfully for your organization’s future and answer 3 fundamental questions: • How do I begin looking for future opportunities? • How can I create a path to these opportunities that anticipates the inevitable changes along the way? • What can I start doing today that will help me get there first? Three-Phase Process The Stanford Foresight and Innovation process is designed to help all types of companies and people learn how to apply each method as part of an integrated, repeatable practice. This process can be understood as three overlapping phases: Perspective to Opportunity to Solution. Each phase recognizes a distinct set of activities within the broader lifecycle of long-range innovation, although the phases tend to overlap in real life. Often, the start of the process has the highest ambiguity for participants. Perspective Opportunity Solution • Perspective: The first phase is to develop historical perspective about an area of interest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in order to look forward. • Opportunity: The second phase helps you develop an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today and extend into the future. Today’s opportunities become tomorrow’s innovations. • Solution: The third phase seeks to define the questions that exist along different paths to innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to your industry, customers, organization, and individual skills. © 2009 | William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton (over)
- 2. Nine Core Tools Each phase is associated with a set of three tools, and all nine core tools can be integrated as part of an ongoing process of foresight and innovation strategy. Context Map: a mapping technique for capturing emergent conversation themes in complex problems to show integrated context. Progression Curves: a graphical representation that explains the progression of changes in terms of technological, social, and related filters. Janus Cones: a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how timing affects potential future events. Demographics: a research method to identify and track population changes within a specific group over time in order to understand impending changes on the workforce, life stages, future markets, and other variables. Future Users: a tool to explore the potential future of a chosen demo- graphic through the comparative analysis between similar groups over time. Futuretelling: short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular user need as a scene from the future. This is active storytelling at its best. White Spots: a strategic tool for studying the future opportunity space defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered in the ‘white spots’, or empty areas. Change Paths: a set of data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations. Paper Mockups: an advanced design method to prototype and communicate a new concept in three-dimensions (3D) using paper and inexpensive materials. © 2009 | William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton 2