5 g enabling_tech_tm_perspective_keysight_nov2014_cpqd_workshop
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1. The document discusses enabling technologies for 5G networks, which aim to support exponentially growing demand for wireless data by achieving speeds of 10 Gbps, coverage in crowded areas, 1 msec latency, and connectivity for over 30 billion devices. 2. 5G proposals include using higher mmWave spectrum bands, new physical/MAC layer technologies, full duplex, and fiber and data bus upgrades to support 1000x capacity increases. However, meeting demands for performance, availability, cost efficiency, and energy efficiency will require multiple technical solutions. 3. Setting a 5G agenda involves many players, including governments, companies, universities, and standards bodies. While 2020 is the target date, consensus is needed to avoid fragmentation.
5 g enabling_tech_tm_perspective_keysight_nov2014_cpqd_workshop
- 1. 5G Enabling Technologies: a Test & Measurement Perspective Andjela Ilic-Savoia Keysight Technologies November 2014
- 2. Page Agenda 1.The motivation and vision for 5G 2.Setting the 5G Agenda 3.5G solution proposals and technical assumptions 4.Six predictions for broadband wireless 2020 5.Summary 2
- 3. Page Keysight Technologies Began Operations, Aug 1, ‘14 •Agilent announced Sept. 19, 2013, it would separate into: •an Electronic Measurement company (now Keysight) •a Life Sciences, Diagnostics and Applied Markets company (to retain the Agilent name) 3
- 4. Page FY13 $2.9 billion revenue | 18.9% operating margin | 31% ROIC | best in class financial profile Communications Industrial, computer, semiconductor Aerospace/defense Keysight in Electronic Measurement The industry leader (1)Presented on a non-GAAP basis; reconciliations to closet GAAP equivalent provided. See reconciliations for definition of ROIC. 4
- 5. Page What is the motivation for 5G? 1.The primary motivation for 5G is the apparently endless exponential growth in demand for wireless data services 2.In addition there is an emerging set of demands based on the unique attributes of machine-type communications (MTC) for the internet of things (IoT) which is predicted to reach tens of billions of devices by 2020 3.There is also growing awareness of the need for energy efficiency and cost savings 5
- 6. Page Revolution, or Evolution? 6
- 7. Page What will it be? (Courtesy of METIS): Amazingly fast focusing on high data-rates for future mobile broadband users – Speed: 10 Gbps Great service in a crowd focusing on mobile broadband access even in very crowded areas and conditions – Multiplying Coverage/Cells Super real-time focusing on new applications such as augmented reality and tactile feel for virtual realities calling for stringent requirements on latency - 1 msec Latency Ubiquitous things communicating focusing on efficient handling of a very large number of devices with widely varying requirements, Mobiles, M2M, Internet of Things - >30 Billion Devices Low cost, low energy – Operators need to make it more efficient and cost effective The 5G Network is not a replacement. It is a revolutionary enhancement. 5G 2G GERAN 3G UMTS 4G LTE WiFi New Technologies 7
- 8. Page 5G: Market Forces Massive Growth in Mobile Data Demand Massive Growth in Number of Connected Devices Exploding Diversity of Wireless Applications Dramatic Change in User Expectations of the Network Sound Business Model for Network Operators 8
- 9. Page 5G Market: Drivers Past Today’s System Limits Massive Growth in Mobile Data Demand Massive Growth in Number of Connected Devices Exploding Diversity of Wireless Applications Dramatic Change in User Expectations of Network Foundation of sound business model for access providers. 100X Energy Efficiency Reliability 99.999% 1mS Latency 100X Densification 1000X Capacity 100X Data Rates •Amazingly Fast •Great Service In a Crowd •Best Experience Follows You •Super Real-Time & Reliable Communications •Ubiquitous Things Communicating For the User: 9
- 10. Page 5G Wireless: Opportunities to Innovate –Design –Simulate –Calibrate –Emulate –Validate 1 GHz 10 GHz 100 GHz 1 THz 10 THz 100 THz 1PHz 10 cm 1 cm 1 mm 100 mm 10 mm 1 mm Wavelength Frequency Microwave mm-Wave THz Far IR Infrared UV 100X Efficiency (energy/bit) Reliability 99.999% 1mS Latency 100X Densification 1000X Capacity 100X Data Rates Enabling Technologies 1.mmWave (Carrier, BW, MU-MIMO) 2.New <6GHz PHY/MAC 3.Full Duplex 4.>>400GB/s Fiber 5.Hyper-Fast Data Buses 6.C-RAN & New NW Topology 10
- 11. Page Identifiable metrics for higher performance • Higher bit rates • Lower latency • Higher spectral efficiency • Higher capacity density • Higher connection density Leading to consequences for • Terminal and network cost • Terminal battery life • Energy efficiency • Reliability of service • Mobility Setting the 5G Agenda: A complex problem Performance-led metrics 11
- 12. Page Demands for availability and cost/energy efficiency • High availability of service • Lower terminal and network cost • Longer terminal battery life • Higher energy efficiency • Lower mobility Leading to consequences on performance • Lower or sufficient bit rates • Higher latency • Lower spectral efficiency • Lower capacity density • Lower connection density Setting the 5G Agenda: A complex problem Performance-led metrics 12
- 13. Page Performance vs. availability, cost and efficiency The emerging demands on 5G are far more comprehensive than previous generations It is very clear that some fo the desirable attributes are mutually exclusive. This leads to an assumption that the needs of 5G cannot be met by one single solution Setting the 5G Agenda High Performance Availability cost and efficiency Bit rate bits / s 109 107 105 103 UE battery life days 103 102 10 1 13
- 14. Page High Performance Availability cost and efficiency The 4G targets were more comprehensive than 3G by adding latency and spectral efficiency targets but otherwise focussed again on single-user peak data rates at low mobility. 4G targets Bit rate bits / s 109 107 105 103 14
- 15. Page High Performance Availability cost and efficiency In the early debate on 5G some targets for attributes associated with high performance have been proposed. What follows are the consequences on the attributes of availability, cost and efficiency using today’s technology A better balance between the upper and lower halves of the plot will require technical breakthrough 5G High performance targets Bit rate bits / s 109 107 105 103 UE battery life days 103 102 10 1 15
- 16. Page High Performance Availability cost and efficiency By contrast the contrasting demands of static MTC/IoT look very different The key attributes are driven from the lower half of the spider diagram with the likely performance attributes being impacted MTC/IoT targets Bit rate bits / s 109 107 105 103 UE battery life days 103 102 10 1 16
- 17. Page High Performance Availability cost and efficiency Looking at public safety a further difference emerges in priorities The consequence of the contrasting targets for 5G means there will need to be more than one technical solution Public safety targets Bit rate bits / s 109 107 105 103 UE battery life days 103 102 10 1 17
- 18. Page High Performance Availability cost and efficiency By overlaying the contrasting demands of different types of service an aggregate picture of 5G emerges. Could this be 5G? Bit rate bits / s 109 107 105 103 UE battery life days 103 102 10 1 18
- 19. Page Setting the 5G agenda: Who are the Players? •Governments EU, Korea, China, Japan •Multinational Companies Ericsson, Alcatel Lucent, NSN, Huawei, Samsung •Universities NYU, UW-Madison, Surrey, TU-Dresden, TSING-Hua, BUPT •Network Operators Vodafone, China Mobile (CMCC), SKT, DoCoMo •Chipset Developers Qualcomm, Intel •Consortiums 5GPPP, 5G Forum, 5GIC, NYU Wireless. IMT2020, ARIB 2020 19
- 20. Page Setting the 5G agenda The role of the ITU •If the industry were left alone, two possibilities might emerge: •LTE would continue to evolve with an ever-increasing list of incremental developments with the risk of creating a complex infrastructure with a fragmented market •The conflicting demands on 5G might lead to a never-ending debate or, national or regional solutions that risk market fragmentation •For 5G to be successful it needs to have a clear focus and timeline – this should be the role of the ITU in the successor to the IMT-2000 and IMT- Advanced programs
- 21. Page Setting the 5G agenda: Landscape of most visible 5G players by type as of Summer 2014 NEM’s Operators Silicon MEM’s Government Consortia ALU Ericsson Huawei NSN Cisco Vodafone CMCC docomo AT&T Qualcomm Intel Samsung EU/EC China South Korea METIS (Europe) 5GPPP (Europe) NYU Wireless (US) 5G Forum (Korea) FUTURE Forum (China) ITU 22
- 22. Page Setting the 5G agenda: Today’s 5G Eco-system 23
- 23. Page Setting the 5G agenda: 5G Timing •There is a general recognition that 5G is targeting commercial deployment beyond 2020 •There are also national / regional pressures to demonstrate capability for flagship events such as the Korean 2018 Winter Olympics and the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics •That said, if the timescales of previous generations which had much simpler objectives were to be repeated, then commercial launch in 2020 is a seriously aggressive goal •However, for the time being, 2020 is the date motivating 5G research 24
- 24. Page 5G solution proposals •There are many potential solutions proposed for 5G, but given the primary desire for orders of magnitude of change in performance, cost etc. most of the marginal ideas can be discounted •Only the solutions that truly could make a huge difference need to be considered, the rest can be left to the ongoing evolution of legacy systems 25
- 25. Page A simple wireless capacity model The capacity of a system to deliver services is defined by three main factors: •The bandwidth of the available radio spectrum – in MHz •The efficient use of that spectrum – bits / second / hertz •The number of cells – this equates to spectrum reuse Number of cells Efficiency 26
- 26. Page Wireless capacity growth 1960 – 2010 Capacity 1,000,000x Growth factor 1 10 100 1000 20 25 2000 Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells 10000 Growth potential 1 10 3 2 100 Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells 100 2010 – 2020 Capacity 600x For both the past and the future, the growth of wireless capacity is dominated by the number of cells (small cell spectrum reuse) Most industry effort Most opportunity 27
- 27. Page Wireless capacity growth: with mmWave spectrum Growth potential 1 10 2 20 100 Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells 100 2015 – 2025 Capacity 4000x But with potential for mmWave deployment, the available spectrum might rise from a typical 500 MHz per region to many GHz 28
- 28. Page 5G Technical Assumptions •Use of mmWave frequencies 10G-50GHz, 60 GHz, possibly 70-80 GHz. •Wider bandwidths: 500MHz to 3GHz (below 50 GHz) •New antenna technologies •Steerable Array antennas (dynamic beam forming patterns) •Massive MIMO (e.g. 100-1000 low-power antennas per BTS •Will require significantly more (low cost) backhaul capacity (400 Gb/s) •Very low round-trip latency requirements •Affects all elements of the network •Higher Frequencies and Higher Densities will dictate small cells •Software defined radio •Software defined network 29
- 29. Page 5G Technical Assumptions New air interfaces •Move towards more cognitive designs to take advantage of spectrum sharing: a hybrid of cellular mobility and Wi-Fi ad hoc co-existence •New modulation formats •Full duplex transmission Interop and integration with multiple RAT’s including unlicensed •Significant impact on the network (e.g. control channel on low band for coverage) •Role of 802.11ad as it evolves between now and 2020 into 802.11ax 30
- 30. Page Six predictions for wireless broadband 2020 1.No new worldwide allocations of mmWave spectrum 2.Cellular will extend into the ISM band at 60 GHz (Unlicensed access) 3.The importance of UE antennas will finally be recognized 4.WLAN will become an equal partner with cellular 5.Without technical breakthrough, the operator business case will not support a massive expansion in capacity 6.The success of 802.11ad will determine the likelihood of cellular at mmWave frequencies 31
- 31. Page 1. No new worldwide allocations of mmWave spectrum •One of the yet to be addressed challenges for 5G is where potential mmWave spectrum might be found •The last time the ITU Worlds Radio Council allocated spectrum for wireless communications was 2007, there was no debate at WRC 2012. •In 2015 there is an agenda item for communications below 6 GHz but no guarantee for any new allocations •There is not yet an agenda item agreed for WRC 2018/9 to discuss potential mmWave allocations •Existing spectrum holders from military, Broadcast, Satellite industries are acting together to prevent further release to mobile broadband 32
- 32. Page 2. Cellular will extend into the ISM band at 60 GHz (Unlicensed access) •Release 13 will study the operation of LTE in unlicensed spectrum (LTE-U) - in particular the 5 GHz ISM band used for WLAN •This is to enable operators to offload traffic to LTE femtocells without having to implement WLAN thus avoiding inter-RAT challenges •Proposals are controversial since standard LTE interferes with WLAN •LTE is shown to be more efficient - but WLAN was there first •Modifications to the LTE air interface are proposed to make co-existence with WLAN more tolerable (e.g. Listen Before Talk – LBT) •Likely to become the single biggest increase of cellular spectrum (up to 680 MHz in 5 GHz band) since the allocations given at WRC 07. •If successful at 5 GHz, likely to be extended to the 60 GHz ISM band as the quickest way for 5G to get spectrum 33
- 33. Page 5. Without technical breakthrough, the operator business case will not support a massive expansion in capacity •The predictions for exponential traffic growth assume the provision of the necessary network capacity is affordable •Current wireless broadband experience is dominated by a lack of investment in current technology rather than a need for new technology 34
- 34. Page 5G: Technical breakthrough: Focus on research Radio Spectrum •Frequency Bands •<6 GHz •28 GHz •38-40 GHz •57-64 GHz •70-75 GHz •81-89 GHz •Model and characterize the propagation channel •Bandwidth (0.5 to 3 GHz) Topology Improvements •Backhaul for capacity & cost •Fronthaul for coverage & cost •Software-defined Networks for flexibility •Enhanced HetNet and Small Cells •Full Duplex and self interference cancellation (SIC) Radio Hardware •Software-defined Radio (SDR) •Integrated Fronthaul & Backhaul Radio Access Technologies •GFDM, FBMC, UFMC, BFDM, NOMA Antenna Technologies •Steerable Arrays •Massive MIMO Research Labs need equipment to work at new frequency bands and wider bandwidths. They need to create and analyze new types of signals/technologies. They need flexible, high performance hardware and software. 35
- 35. Page Technology Lifecycle Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disappointment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Deployment Stage Go to Market Stage Revenue Generation Stage Development Stage Concept Stage 39
- 36. Page Summary •The current wireless broadband ecosystem is becoming increasingly fragmented and complex with implications on performance and costs •For 5G to deliver a revolutionary step and distinguish itself from the ongoing evolution of 4G will require breakthrough developments •Unlike previous mobile communication generations, the debate around 5G is embracing the full range of technical performance, economic and environmental factors 40
- 37. Page Thank You! Name: Andjela Ilic-Savoia E-mail:andjela_ilic-savoia@keysight.com 41
- 38. Page Extras….
- 39. Page What is 5G? Set of new requirements for wireless communications systems that mature beyond 2020. Speed 10Gpbs - 100 times faster than 4G Very low latency: 1 msec for: Augmented Reality, Tactile Internet Mobility: Experience follows you - Gigabit everywhere Density: Very dense crowds of users Low Cost, Low Energy Large Device Count for M2M(Machine to Machine)/ Internet of Things
- 40. Page Multi-national Companies •Samsung has 200 researchers working on 5G. Demonstrated 28 GHz system. •Huawei will invest $600M in 5G Research & Innovation by 2018 •NTT DoCoMo will conduct experimental trials with Alcatel-Lucent, Ericsson, Fujitsu, NEC, Nokia and Samsung •Qualcomm – Testbed for mmWave – Materials measurements, modeling, performance Governments – National Initiatives •European Commission commits € 700M 2014-2020 (5G-PPP Now Active) •Korea 5G Forum: Demonstration system at 2018 Winter Olympics The government will spend 1.6T Won ($1.5B) over the next seven years •China IMT-2020 Promotion Group – $24M in 2014 •Japan – Plan for 2020 Olympics (multi-streaming of 8k HD Video) •Taiwan – Portion of $58M Technology Budget Latest News Universities/Research Institutes •University of Surrey 5GIC £44.6 million investments •NYU – Completed 5G Summit in May •TU Dresden/ Fraunhofer HHI- 5GNOW – Investigating Non-Orthogonal Waveforms for Asynchronous signalling
- 41. Page Groups working on 5G •5G PPP - METIS - EU Co-funded Consortium of 25 partners – Objective: To lay the foundation of 5G •NYU Wireless – University with 10 Industrial Affiliates - Objective: To create next generation mass-deployable devices across a wide range of applications and markets •5GIC – 5G Innovation Centre (University of Surrey Research Center) – Objective: Spearhead international research into the next generation of mobile communication technology. •5G Forum (Korea) – Korean Co-funded Consortium. Vision to become a 5G Mobile telecommunications leader •IMT-2020 (5G) China Promotion Group - Platform to promote the development of 5G technologies in China and to facilitate cooperation with foreign companies and organizations •Beyond 2020 Ad Hoc Group of ARIB (Association of Radio Industries and Businesses) (Japan)- Next generation mobile communications R&D group working with private enterprises